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Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries

Author

Listed:
  • Teresa Armada Brás

    (NOVA University Lisbon)

  • Jonas Jägermeyr

    (University of Chicago
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association,)

  • Júlia Seixas

    (NOVA University Lisbon)

Abstract

EU-28 relies on a diversified foreign market, even for crops for which it has a high self-sufficiency. This study contributes to the discussion on the vulnerability of agri-food supply to the impacts of extreme weather disasters (EWD). We focus on the largest import commodities of the EU-28 and we aim to (1) map external dependencies of EU-28 agri-food sector, (2) estimate the impact of EWD on crop production in countries from which the EU-28 receives their imports, and (3) assess the exposure of EU-28 agri-food imports to such impacts. Crop and trade data are acquired through EUROSTAT and FAOSTAT, EWD records from EM-DAT, all between 1961 and 2016. A superposed epoch analysis is used to estimate the impact of EWD on the average national production, yield and harvested area of selected crops in exporting countries. The EU-28 imports between 35-100% of its consumption of soybeans, banana, tropical fruits, coffee and cocoa. Our study reveals a substantial impact of EWD, especially due to droughts and heat waves, on the production of soybeans, tropical fruits, and cocoa, with import weighted impacts of 3, 8, and 7%, respectively. Floods cause weighted impacts of 7% (soybeans) and 8% (tropical fruits). Coffee production shows gains during cold waves, but the inter-annual variability offsets these effects. This study provides conclusions that may support EU-28 on the development of adaptation schemes in external supplier countries to secure EU-28 food supply. Such schemes may prioritize provisions contributing for the stability of crop production and incomes in those countries, while dealing with future adverse EWD impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Armada Brás & Jonas Jägermeyr & Júlia Seixas, 2019. "Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1373-1393, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:11:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s12571-019-00975-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-019-00975-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    2. Kocur-Bera, Katarzyna, 2018. "A safe space of rural areas in the context of the occurrence of extreme weather events—A case study covering a part of the Euroregion Baltic," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 518-529.
    3. Jonathan Brooks & Alan Matthews, 2015. "Trade Dimensions of Food Security," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 77, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vinícius B. P. Chagas & Pedro L. B. Chaffe & Günter Blöschl, 2022. "Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Kong, Xiangwen & Sun, Yuxuan & Qiu, Huanguang, 2023. "Climatic disasters and Conflicts in GMO Approval," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335544, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Bartłomiej Bajan & Natalia Genstwa & Luboš Smutka, 2021. "The similarity of food consumption patterns in selected EU countries combined with the similarity of food production and imports," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(8), pages 316-326.
    4. Carla Zarb? & Gioacchino Pappalardo & Roberta Selvaggi & Biagio Pecorino, 2023. "The EU agri-food system in the recent crisis scenarios," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(3), pages 87-107.

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