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Analysis of Drought and Flood Variations on a 200-Year Scale Based on Historical Environmental Information in Western China

Author

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  • Yinge Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulating in Shaanxi Province, College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, China)

  • Yanjun Wen

    (Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulating in Shaanxi Province, College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, China)

  • Yaqian Zhao

    (Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-electric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
    UCD Dooge Centre for Water Resources Research, School of Civil Engineering, University College Dublin, Belfield, D04 V1W8 Dublin, Ireland)

  • Haonan Hu

    (Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulating in Shaanxi Province, College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, China)

Abstract

Historical environmental evidence has been characterized by time accuracy, high spatial resolution and rich information, which may be widely used in the reconstruction of historical data series. Taking the upper reaches of the Weihe River as an example in Western China, the grades and index sequences of the drought and flood disasters from 1800 to 2016 were reconstructed based on various historical environmental information and standardized precipitation indicator (SPI). Moreover, the characteristics of droughts and floods were analyzed using statistical diagnostic methods, and the mechanisms affecting centennial-scale droughts and floods were discussed. The validity of reconstruction sequence of droughts/floods was verified, which showed that the reconstruction sequence may reasonably indicate the status of drought and flood. The reconstruction indicated the following periods of drought/flood: a period of extreme and big droughts in 1835s–1893s, 1924s–1943s and 1984s–2008s, a period of extreme and big floods in 1903s–1923s, and a period of extreme and big droughts/floods in 1944s–1983s. Moreover, the droughts were more serious in the western part of this region and the floods were relatively severe in the east of this region, while the droughts and floods have long-term period of about 100 years and mutation. The influence mechanism of external environmental forcing factors driving floods/droughts were revealed. The results showed that the cycle of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sunspot activities were closely related to the variations of drought/flood, meanwhile, ENSO has a significant lag time scale cumulative influence on droughts and floods, especially the 15-year sliding effect was the most obvious. In the peak year of sunspots, the probability of heavy drought/extreme floods was large, and the 102-year sunspot cycle has a more significant effect on drought and flood disasters. The mutation of droughts and floods occurred in the context of the drastic changes in the ground environment, and transformation of precipitation and land use structure. These results will enhance the understandings of historical environmental climate characteristics and mechanisms over the hundred years, and be useful for the future regional water resources and assessment, and ecological environment management.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinge Liu & Yanjun Wen & Yaqian Zhao & Haonan Hu, 2022. "Analysis of Drought and Flood Variations on a 200-Year Scale Based on Historical Environmental Information in Western China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:5:p:2771-:d:760055
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liang Yi & Hongjun Yu & Junyi Ge & Zhongping Lai & Xingyong Xu & Li Qin & Shuzhen Peng, 2012. "Reconstructions of annual summer precipitation and temperature in north-central China since 1470 AD based on drought/flood index and tree-ring records," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 469-498, January.
    2. Kerstin S. Treydte & Gerhard H. Schleser & Gerhard Helle & David C. Frank & Matthias Winiger & Gerald H. Haug & Jan Esper, 2006. "The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7088), pages 1179-1182, April.
    3. Yinge Liu & Keke Yu & Yaqian Zhao & Jiangchuan Bao, 2022. "Impacts of Climatic Variation and Human Activity on Runoff in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-19, January.
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