IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i20p13482-d945977.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia

Author

Listed:
  • Sergej Gričar

    (Faculty of Business and Management Sciences, University of Novo Mesto, Na Loko 2, 8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia)

  • Štefan Bojnec

    (Faculty of Management, University of Primorska, Izolska Vrata 2, 6000 Koper, Slovenia)

Abstract

In 2020, with a substantial decline in tourist arrivals slightly before the time of COVID-19, the innovative econometric approach predicted possible responses between the spread of human microbes (bacteria/viruses) and tourist arrivals. The article developed a conceptually tested econometric model for predicting an exogenous shock on tourist arrivals driven by the spread of disease using a time series approach. The reworked study is based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to avoid spurious results. The periods of robust empirical study were obtained from the data vectors i) from January 2008 to December 2018 and ii) from January 2008 to December 2020. The data were obtained from the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. The ARIMA model predicted the number of declines in tourist arrivals for the approaching periods due to the spread of viruses. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, pre-pandemic results confirmed a one-fifth drop in tourist arrivals in the medium term. In the short term, the decline could be more than three-quarters. A further shock can be caused by forecasted bacterial infections; less likely to reduce tourist demand in the long term. The results can improve the evidence for public health demand in risk reduction for tourists as possible patients. The data from the NIPH are crucial for monitoring public health and tourism management as a base for predictions of unknown events.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergej Gričar & Štefan Bojnec, 2022. "Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-15, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:20:p:13482-:d:945977
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/20/13482/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/20/13482/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tarricone, Rosanna, 2006. "Cost-of-illness analysis: What room in health economics?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 51-63, June.
    2. Sergej Gricar & Tea Baldigara & Violeta Šugar, 2021. "Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Eunjoo Yang & Hyun Woo Park & Yeon Hwa Choi & Jusim Kim & Lkhagvadorj Munkhdalai & Ibrahim Musa & Keun Ho Ryu, 2018. "A Simulation-Based Study on the Comparison of Statistical and Time Series Forecasting Methods for Early Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    5. Mehtap A. Eklund, 2021. "The COVID-19 lessons learned for business and governance," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Santiago Tejedor & Laura Cervi & Fernanda Tusa & Mónica Gracia Villar, 2022. "Comparative Study of the Information about the COVID-19 Pandemic and COVID-19 Vaccines on the Covers of United Kingdom, France, Spain and United States’ Main Newspapers," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Νikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Investigating the nexus between European major and sectoral stock indices, gold and oil during the COVID-19 pandemic," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-12, April.
    8. Dogru, Tarik & Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2017. "Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-55.
    9. Xiao-Guang Yue & Xue-Feng Shao & Rita Yi Man Li & M. James C. Crabbe & Lili Mi & Siyan Hu & Julien S. Baker & Gang Liang, 2020. "Risk Management Analysis for Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-6, February.
    10. Abdallah Alsayed & Hayder Sadir & Raja Kamil & Hasan Sari, 2020. "Prediction of Epidemic Peak and Infected Cases for COVID-19 Disease in Malaysia, 2020," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Bipasha Barua & Suborna Barua, 2021. "COVID-19 implications for banks: evidence from an emerging economy," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-28, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan D. Borrero & Jesús Mariscal & Alfonso Vargas-Sánchez, 2022. "A New Predictive Algorithm for Time Series Forecasting Based on Machine Learning Techniques: Evidence for Decision Making in Agriculture and Tourism Sectors," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-14, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joanna M Charles & Deirdre M Harrington & Melanie J Davies & Charlotte L Edwardson & Trish Gorely & Danielle H Bodicoat & Kamlesh Khunti & Lauren B Sherar & Thomas Yates & Rhiannon Tudor Edwards, 2019. "Micro-costing and a cost-consequence analysis of the ‘Girls Active’ programme: A cluster randomised controlled trial," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Zhihui Wang & Liangzhen Nie & Eila Jeronen & Lihua Xu & Meiai Chen, 2023. "Understanding the Environmentally Sustainable Behavior of Chinese University Students as Tourists: An Integrative Framework," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Yamaka, Woraphon & Zhang, Xuefeng & Maneejuk, Paravee & Ramos, Vicente, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate risk: A Markov switching approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Ngassam, Sylvain B. & Asongu, Simplice A. & Ngueuleweu, Gildas Tiwang, 2024. "A revisit of the natural resource curse in the tourism industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Karine Chevreul & Coralie Gandré & Karen Berg Brigham & Julio López-Bastida & Renata Linertová & Juan Oliva-Moreno & Pedro Serrano-Aguilar & Manuel Posada-de-la-Paz & Domenica Taruscio & Arrigo Schiep, 2016. "Social/economic costs and health-related quality of life in patients with fragile X syndrome in Europe," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(1), pages 43-52, April.
    6. Rocco Mosconi & Paolo Paruolo, 2022. "Celebrated Econometricians: Katarina Juselius and Søren Johansen," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-4, May.
    7. Jamison Pike & Scott D. Grosse, 2018. "Friction Cost Estimates of Productivity Costs in Cost-of-Illness Studies in Comparison with Human Capital Estimates: A Review," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 765-778, December.
    8. Gao, Penghui & Secor, William & Escalante, Cesar L., 2022. "Banking Efficiency Analysis for U.S. agricultural and non-agricultural banks: Comparative Period Analysis between the Great Recession of the late 2000s and the Current Pandemic conditions," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322329, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. ATM Adnan & Sameer Al Johani, 2023. "Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Industry Analysis in Frontier Market," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 12(2), pages 157-181, July.
    10. Hazo, Jean-Baptiste & Gandré, Coralie & Leboyer, Marion & Obradors-Tarragó, Carla & Belli, Stefano & McDaid, David & Park, A-La & Maliandi, Maria Victoria & Wahlbeck, Kristian & Wykes, Til & van Os, J, 2017. "National funding for mental health research in Finland, France, Spain and the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 82339, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Susanne Mayer & Jonah Spickschen & K Viktoria Stein & Richard Crevenna & Thomas E Dorner & Judit Simon, 2019. "The societal costs of chronic pain and its determinants: The case of Austria," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Ghialy Yap & Shrabani Saha & Nelson O Ndubisi & Saif S Alsowaidi & Ali S Saleh, 2023. "Can tourism market diversification mitigate the adverse effects of a blockade on tourism? Evidence from Qatar," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 880-905, June.
    13. Lan Gao & Hao Hu & Fei-Li Zhao & Shu-Chuen Li, 2016. "Can the Direct Medical Cost of Chronic Disease Be Transferred across Different Countries? Using Cost-of-Illness Studies on Type 2 Diabetes, Epilepsy and Schizophrenia as Examples," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Bugge, Christoffer & Sæther, Erik Magnus & Brustugun, Odd Terje & Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø, 2021. "Societal cost of cancer in Norway –Results of taking a broader cost perspective," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(8), pages 1100-1107.
    15. Karine Chevreul & Morgane Michel & Karen Berg Brigham & Julio López-Bastida & Renata Linertová & Juan Oliva-Moreno & Pedro Serrano-Aguilar & Manuel Posada-de-la-Paz & Domenica Taruscio & Arrigo Schiep, 2016. "Social/economic costs and health-related quality of life in patients with cystic fibrosis in Europe," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(1), pages 7-18, April.
    16. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, 2020. "Relationship between ICT and international tourism demand: A study of major tourist destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(6), pages 908-925, September.
    17. David Boto-García & José F Baños-Pino, 2023. "Deep habits and travel resilience after COVID-19," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 543-550, March.
    18. Paul Hanly & Rebecca Maguire & Frances Drummond & Linda Sharp, 2019. "Variation in the methodological approach to productivity cost valuation: the case of prostate cancer," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(9), pages 1399-1408, December.
    19. Sisira R. N. Colombage & Suborna Barua & Madurika Nanayakkara & Udari N. Colombage, 2023. "COVID-19 Effects on Public Finance and SDG Priorities in Developing Countries: Comparative Evidence from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(1), pages 85-111, February.
    20. Miley, Frances & Read, Andrew, 2021. "Soldiers don't go mad: Shell shock and accounting intransigence in the British Army 1914-18," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(2).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:20:p:13482-:d:945977. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.