IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i18p11732-d917530.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China

Author

Listed:
  • Bingkui Qiu

    (Department of Tourism Management, Jin Zhong University, Jinzhong 033619, China)

  • Min Zhou

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Yang Qiu

    (Department of Economics, University College of London, London WC1E 6BT, UK)

  • Shuhan Liu

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Guoliang Ou

    (School of Construction and Environmental Engineering, Shenzhen Polytechnic, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Chaonan Ma

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Jiating Tu

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Siqi Li

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

Abstract

In the past, the research on models related to urban land-use change and prediction was greatly complicated by the high precision of models. When planning some garden cities, we should explore a more applicable, specific, and effective macro approach than the community-level one. In this study, a model consisting of spatial autoregressive (SAR), cellular automata (CA), and Markov chains is constructed. One It can well-consider the spatial autocorrelation and integrate the advantages of CA into a geographical simulation to find the driving forces behind the expansion of a garden city. This framework has been applied to the urban planning and development of Chengdu, China. The research results show that the application of the SAR model shows the development trend in the southeast region and the needs to optimize the central region and protect the western region as an ecological reserve. The descriptive statistics and the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals are reliable. The influence of spatial variables from strong to weak is distance to water, slope, population density, GDP, distance to main roads, distance to railways, and distance to the center of the county (district). Taking 2005 as the initial year, the land-use situation in 2015 was simulated and compared with the actual land-use situation. It seems that the Kappa coefficient of the construction-land simulation is 0.7634, with high accuracy. Therefore, the land use in 2025 and 2035 is further simulated, which provides a reference for garden cities to formulate a reasonable urban space development strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bingkui Qiu & Min Zhou & Yang Qiu & Shuhan Liu & Guoliang Ou & Chaonan Ma & Jiating Tu & Siqi Li, 2022. "An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:18:p:11732-:d:917530
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/18/11732/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/18/11732/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zuser, Anton & Rechberger, Helmut, 2011. "Considerations of resource availability in technology development strategies: The case study of photovoltaics," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 56-65.
    2. Liu, Xiaoping & Ou, Jinpei & Li, Xia & Ai, Bin, 2013. "Combining system dynamics and hybrid particle swarm optimization for land use allocation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 257(C), pages 11-24.
    3. Choi, Chul Hun & Cao, Jinjian & Zhao, Fu, 2016. "System Dynamics Modeling of Indium Material Flows under Wide Deployment of Clean Energy Technologies," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 59-71.
    4. Nicolas Vernet & Anne Coste, 2017. "Garden Cities of the 21st Century: A Sustainable Path to Suburban Reform," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 2(4), pages 181-196.
    5. Barbier, Edward B., 2020. "Long run agricultural land expansion, booms and busts," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Adina Israel & Rachel Wynberg, 2019. "Multifunctional landscapes in a rural, developing country context: conflicts and synergies in Tshidzivhe, South Africa," Landscape Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 404-417, May.
    7. Nicolas Vernet & Anne Coste, 2017. "Garden Cities of the 21st Century: A Sustainable Path to Suburban Reform," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 2(4), pages 45-60.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brinkley, Catherine & Raj, Subhashni, 2022. "Perfusion and urban thickness: The shape of cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Wu, Tian & Zhou, Wei & Yan, Xiaoyu & Ou, Xunmin, 2016. "Optimal policy design for photovoltaic power industry with positive externality in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 22-30.
    3. Petr Hlaváček & Miroslav Kopáček & Lucie Horáčková, 2019. "Impact of Suburbanisation on Sustainable Development of Settlements in Suburban Spaces: Smart and New Solutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Chenhao Zhu & Jonah Susskind & Mario Giampieri & Hazel Backus O’Neil & Alan M. Berger, 2023. "Optimizing Sustainable Suburban Expansion with Autonomous Mobility through a Parametric Design Framework," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-31, September.
    5. Li, Zehong & Wang, Chunying & Chen, Jian, 2024. "Supply and demand of lithium in China based on dynamic material flow analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    7. Shukui Tan & Lu Zhang & Min Zhou & Yanan Li & Siliang Wang & Bing Kuang & Xiang Luo, 2017. "A hybrid mathematical model for urban land-use planning in association with environmental–ecological consideration under uncertainty," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(1), pages 54-79, January.
    8. Rao Fu & Kun Peng & Peng Wang & Honglin Zhong & Bin Chen & Pengfei Zhang & Yiyi Zhang & Dongyang Chen & Xi Liu & Kuishuang Feng & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "Tracing metal footprints via global renewable power value chains," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Philip A. Loring, 2022. "Regenerative food systems and the conservation of change," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(2), pages 701-713, June.
    10. Jing Yao & Xiaoxiang Zhang & Alan T. Murray, 2018. "Spatial Optimization for Land-use Allocation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 41(6), pages 579-600, November.
    11. Xiaoyu Chen & Qingming Zhan & Yuli Fan, 2023. "Classification and Evaluation Methods for Optimization of Land Use Efficiency at Village Level," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, March.
    12. Yao Lu & Min Zhou & Guoliang Ou & Zuo Zhang & Li He & Yuxiang Ma & Chaonan Ma & Jiating Tu & Siqi Li, 2021. "Sustainable Land-Use Allocation Model at a Watershed Level under Uncertainty," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Xiaoya Ma & Xiang Zhao, 2015. "Land Use Allocation Based on a Multi-Objective Artificial Immune Optimization Model: An Application in Anlu County, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Yuping Bai & Zhe Zhao & Chuyao Weng & Wenxuan Wang & Yecui Hu, 2021. "Scenario-Based Analysis of Land Use Competition and Sustainable Land Development in Zhangye of the Heihe River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Liu, Wei & Li, Xin & Liu, Chunyan & Wang, Minxi & Liu, Litao, 2023. "Resilience assessment of the cobalt supply chain in China under the impact of electric vehicles and geopolitical supply risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Dang, Anh Nguyet & Kawasaki, Akiyuki, 2017. "Integrating biophysical and socio-economic factors for land-use and land-cover change projection in agricultural economic regions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 344(C), pages 29-37.
    17. Tran, Thuc Han & Egermann, Markus, 2022. "Land-use implications of energy transition pathways towards decarbonisation – Comparing the footprints of Vietnam, New Zealand and Finland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    18. Zhen Li & Songlin Wu & Shiwen Zhang & Chaojia Nie & Yong Li & Yuanfang Huang, 2020. "Optimization of Land Reuse Structure in Coal Mining Subsided Areas Considering Regional Economic Development: A Case Study in Pei County, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, April.
    19. Haitao Ji & Xiaoshun Li & Yiwei Geng & Xin Chen & Yuexiang Wang & Jumei Cheng & Zhuang Chen, 2023. "Delineation of Urban Development Boundary and Carbon Emission Effects in Xuzhou City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, September.
    20. Jing Lin & Xin Li & Minxi Wang & Litao Liu & Tao Dai, 2021. "How Can China’s Indium Resources Have a Sustainable Future? Research Based on the Industry Chain Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:18:p:11732-:d:917530. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.