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Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China

Author

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  • Yongjun Du

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Xiaolong Li

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Xinlin He

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Xiaoqian Li

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Guang Yang

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Dongbo Li

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Wenhe Xu

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Xiang Qiao

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Chen Li

    (Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China)

  • Lu Sui

    (Faculty of Public Administration, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China)

Abstract

Rapid socio-economic development has had a significant impact on land use/cover (LULC) changes, which bring great pressure to the ecological environment. LULC changes affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. It is of great significance to reveal the internal relationship between LULC changes and ecosystem service value (ESV) for the protection and restoration of ecological environments. In this study, based on the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological service values in the Manas River basin from 1980 to 2020 and considering ecological and economic benefits, we coupled the gray multi-objective optimization model (GMOP) and patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model (GMOP–PLUS model) to optimize the LULC structure under three scenarios (a natural development scenario, ND; ecological priority development scenario, (EPD); and balanced ecological and economic development scenario, EED) in 2030, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies in the relationships among the four services. We found that from 1980 to 2020, farmland and construction land expanded 2017.90 km 2 and 254.27 km 2 , respectively, whereas the areas of grassland and unused land decreased by 1617.38 km 2 and 755.86 km 2 , respectively. By 2030, the trend of LULC changes will be stable under the ND scenario, the area of ecological land will increase by 327.42 km 2 under the EPD scenario, and the area of construction land will increase most under the EED scenario, reaching 65.01 km 2 . From 1980 to 2020, the ESV exhibited an upward trend in the basin. In 2030, the ESV will increase by 7.18%, 6.54%, and 6.04% under the EPD, EED, and ND scenarios, respectively. The clustering of the four services is obvious in the desert area and around the water system with “low–low synergy” and “high–high synergy”; the plain area and mountainous area are mainly “high–low trade-off” and “low–high trade-off” relationships. This paper provides a scientific reference for coordinating economic development and ecological protection in the basin. It also provides a new technical approach to address the planning of land resources in the basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongjun Du & Xiaolong Li & Xinlin He & Xiaoqian Li & Guang Yang & Dongbo Li & Wenhe Xu & Xiang Qiao & Chen Li & Lu Sui, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-31, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:10:p:6216-:d:820004
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    1. Wenqiang Zhou & Jinlong Wang & Yu Han & Ling Yang & Huafei Que & Rong Wang, 2023. "Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Guoqiang Ma & Qiujie Li & Jinxiu Zhang & Lixun Zhang & Hua Cheng & Zhengping Ju & Guojun Sun, 2022. "Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Zhen Wang & Anya Zhong & Quanzhi Li, 2024. "Optimization of Land Use Structure Based on the Coupling of GMOP and PLUS Models: A Case Study of Lvliang City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Fandi Meng & Zhi Zhou & Pengtao Zhang, 2023. "Multi-Objective Optimization of Land Use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China Based on the GMOP-PLUS Coupling Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Yang Zhang & Nazhalati Naerkezi & Yun Zhang & Bo Wang, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model in the Hexi Corridor, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Zhiwei Deng & Bin Quan, 2022. "Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Rui Shu & Zhanqi Wang & Na Guo & Ming Wei & Yebin Zou & Kun Hou, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use Optimization Simulation and Ecosystem Service Value Estimation Based on Fine-Scale Land Survey Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Li Yuan & Jing Xu & Binrui Feng, 2024. "Evaluation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by Coupling the GMMOP and PLUS Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Lei Yang & Fenglian Liu, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Service Value of Urban Agglomeration in Central Yunnan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Qing Liu & Dongdong Yang & Lei Cao, 2022. "Evolution and Prediction of the Coupling Coordination Degree of Production–Living–Ecological Space Based on Land Use Dynamics in the Daqing River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-25, August.
    11. Leizhou Zhu & Yaping Huang, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in Wuhan Metropolitan Area Based on PLUS-GMOP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.

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