IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i10p6216-d820004.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yongjun Du

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Xiaolong Li

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Xinlin He

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Xiaoqian Li

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Guang Yang

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Dongbo Li

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Wenhe Xu

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Xiang Qiao

    (College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
    Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China)

  • Chen Li

    (Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China)

  • Lu Sui

    (Faculty of Public Administration, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China)

Abstract

Rapid socio-economic development has had a significant impact on land use/cover (LULC) changes, which bring great pressure to the ecological environment. LULC changes affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. It is of great significance to reveal the internal relationship between LULC changes and ecosystem service value (ESV) for the protection and restoration of ecological environments. In this study, based on the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological service values in the Manas River basin from 1980 to 2020 and considering ecological and economic benefits, we coupled the gray multi-objective optimization model (GMOP) and patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model (GMOP–PLUS model) to optimize the LULC structure under three scenarios (a natural development scenario, ND; ecological priority development scenario, (EPD); and balanced ecological and economic development scenario, EED) in 2030, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies in the relationships among the four services. We found that from 1980 to 2020, farmland and construction land expanded 2017.90 km 2 and 254.27 km 2 , respectively, whereas the areas of grassland and unused land decreased by 1617.38 km 2 and 755.86 km 2 , respectively. By 2030, the trend of LULC changes will be stable under the ND scenario, the area of ecological land will increase by 327.42 km 2 under the EPD scenario, and the area of construction land will increase most under the EED scenario, reaching 65.01 km 2 . From 1980 to 2020, the ESV exhibited an upward trend in the basin. In 2030, the ESV will increase by 7.18%, 6.54%, and 6.04% under the EPD, EED, and ND scenarios, respectively. The clustering of the four services is obvious in the desert area and around the water system with “low–low synergy” and “high–high synergy”; the plain area and mountainous area are mainly “high–low trade-off” and “low–high trade-off” relationships. This paper provides a scientific reference for coordinating economic development and ecological protection in the basin. It also provides a new technical approach to address the planning of land resources in the basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongjun Du & Xiaolong Li & Xinlin He & Xiaoqian Li & Guang Yang & Dongbo Li & Wenhe Xu & Xiang Qiao & Chen Li & Lu Sui, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-31, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:10:p:6216-:d:820004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/10/6216/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/10/6216/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhengxin Ji & Hejie Wei & Dong Xue & Mengxue Liu & Enxiang Cai & Weiqiang Chen & Xinwei Feng & Jiwei Li & Jie Lu & Yulong Guo, 2021. "Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Minghui Yang & Yu Xie, 2021. "Spatial Pattern Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics of Ecological and Non-Ecological Redline Areas in Nanjing, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Keyue Yuan & Fei Li & Haijuan Yang & Yiming Wang, 2019. "The Influence of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Shangzhou District," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-13, April.
    4. Jun Hou & Tianlin Qin & Shanshan Liu & Jianwei Wang & Biqiong Dong & Sheng Yan & Hanjiang Nie, 2021. "Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Mekonnen H. Daba & Songcai You, 2022. "Quantitatively Assessing the Future Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Their Driving Factors in the Upper Stream of the Awash River Based on the CA–Markov Model and Their Implications for Water Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-29, January.
    6. Costanza, Robert & de Groot, Rudolf & Braat, Leon & Kubiszewski, Ida & Fioramonti, Lorenzo & Sutton, Paul & Farber, Steve & Grasso, Monica, 2017. "Twenty years of ecosystem services: How far have we come and how far do we still need to go?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(PA), pages 1-16.
    7. Fei, Li & Shuwen, Zhang & Jiuchun, Yang & Liping, Chang & Haijuan, Yang & Kun, Bu, 2018. "Effects of land use change on ecosystem services value in West Jilin since the reform and opening of China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PA), pages 12-20.
    8. Negasi Solomon & Alcade C. Segnon & Emiru Birhane, 2019. "Ecosystem Service Values Changes in Response to Land-Use/Land-Cover Dynamics in Dry Afromontane Forest in Northern Ethiopia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-15, November.
    9. Zhiyin Wang & Jiansheng Cao, 2021. "Assessing and Predicting the Impact of Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes on the Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in the Upstream of Xiong’an New Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Gascoigne, William R. & Hoag, Dana & Koontz, Lynne & Tangen, Brian A. & Shaffer, Terry L. & Gleason, Robert A., 2011. "Valuing ecosystem and economic services across land-use scenarios in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Dakotas, USA," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(10), pages 1715-1725, August.
    11. Jafarzadeh, Ali Akbar & Mahdavi, Ali & Shamsi, Seyed Rashid Fallah & Yousefpour, Rasoul, 2021. "Assessing synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services in forest landscape management," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wenqiang Zhou & Jinlong Wang & Yu Han & Ling Yang & Huafei Que & Rong Wang, 2023. "Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Guoqiang Ma & Qiujie Li & Jinxiu Zhang & Lixun Zhang & Hua Cheng & Zhengping Ju & Guojun Sun, 2022. "Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Zhen Wang & Anya Zhong & Quanzhi Li, 2024. "Optimization of Land Use Structure Based on the Coupling of GMOP and PLUS Models: A Case Study of Lvliang City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Fandi Meng & Zhi Zhou & Pengtao Zhang, 2023. "Multi-Objective Optimization of Land Use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China Based on the GMOP-PLUS Coupling Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Yang Zhang & Nazhalati Naerkezi & Yun Zhang & Bo Wang, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model in the Hexi Corridor, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Zhiwei Deng & Bin Quan, 2022. "Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Rui Shu & Zhanqi Wang & Na Guo & Ming Wei & Yebin Zou & Kun Hou, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use Optimization Simulation and Ecosystem Service Value Estimation Based on Fine-Scale Land Survey Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Li Yuan & Jing Xu & Binrui Feng, 2024. "Evaluation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by Coupling the GMMOP and PLUS Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Lei Yang & Fenglian Liu, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Service Value of Urban Agglomeration in Central Yunnan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Qing Liu & Dongdong Yang & Lei Cao, 2022. "Evolution and Prediction of the Coupling Coordination Degree of Production–Living–Ecological Space Based on Land Use Dynamics in the Daqing River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-25, August.
    11. Leizhou Zhu & Yaping Huang, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in Wuhan Metropolitan Area Based on PLUS-GMOP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suling He & Jinliang Wang & Jie Li & Jinming Sha & Jinchun Zhou & Yuanmei Jiao, 2024. "Quantification and Simulation of the Ecosystem Service Value of Karst Region in Southwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Leizhou Zhu & Yaping Huang, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in Wuhan Metropolitan Area Based on PLUS-GMOP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Raviv, Orna & Shiri, Zemah-Shamir & Ido, Izhaki & Alon, Lotan, 2021. "The effect of wildfire and land-cover changes on the economic value of ecosystem services in Mount Carmel Biosphere Reserve, Israel," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Hejie Wei & Jiaxin Zheng & Dong Xue & Xiaobin Dong & Mengxue Liu & Yali Zhang, 2022. "Identifying the Relationship between Livelihoods and Land Ecosystem Services Using a Coupled Model: A Case Study in the “One River and Two Tributaries” Region of Tibet," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, August.
    5. Jarmila Makovníková & Stanislav Kološta & Filip Flaška & Boris Pálka, 2023. "Potential of Regulating Ecosystem Services in Relation to Natural Capital in Model Regions of Slovakia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Xufeng Cui & Cuicui Liu & Ling Shan & Jiaqi Lin & Jing Zhang & Yuehua Jiang & Guanghong Zhang, 2021. "Spatial-Temporal Responses of Ecosystem Services to Land Use Transformation Driven by Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Lei Yang & Fenglian Liu, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Service Value of Urban Agglomeration in Central Yunnan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Jing Li & Jian Qiu & Majid Amani-Beni & Yuyang Wang & Mian Yang & Juewen Chen, 2023. "A Modified Equivalent Factor Method Evaluation Model Based on Land Use Changes in Tianfu New Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-22, July.
    9. Kun Li & Junchen Chen & Jingyu Lin & Huanyu Zhang & Yujing Xie & Zhaohua Li & Ling Wang, 2022. "Identifying Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Their Response to Landscape Patterns at Different Scales in an Agricultural Basin in Central China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Tianhai Zhang & Yaqin Qu & Yang Liu & Guanfeng Yan & Greg Foliente, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Response of Ecosystem Service Values to Land Use Change in Xiamen, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, October.
    11. Aryal, Kishor & Maraseni, Tek & Apan, Armando, 2023. "Examining policy−institution−program (PIP) responses against the drivers of ecosystem dynamics. A chronological review (1960–2020) from Nepal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Yuejuan Yang & Kun Wang & Di Liu & Xinquan Zhao & Jiangwen Fan & Jinsheng Li & Xiajie Zhai & Cong Zhang & Ruyi Zhan, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Ecosystem Service Losses in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-23, April.
    13. Liu, Duan & Tang, Runcheng & Xie, Jun & Tian, Jingjing & Shi, Rui & Zhang, Kai, 2020. "Valuation of ecosystem services of rice–fish coculture systems in Ruyuan County, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    14. Yajing Shao & Xuefeng Yuan & Chaoqun Ma & Ruifang Ma & Zhaoxia Ren, 2020. "Quantifying the Spatial Association between Land Use Change and Ecosystem Services Value: A Case Study in Xi’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, May.
    15. Lu Han & Yanbo Qu & Shufeng Liang & Luyan Shi & Min Zhang & Haiyan Jia, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Land Ecological Security and Optimization Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Delta in China Toward Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, November.
    16. Pietrzyk-Kaszyńska, Agata & Olszańska, Agnieszka & Rechciński, Marcin & Tusznio, Joanna & Grodzińska-Jurczak, Małgorzata, 2022. "Divergent or convergent? Prioritization and spatial representation of ecosystem services as perceived by conservation professionals and local leaders," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    17. Robbie Maris & Mark Holmes, 2023. "Economic Growth Theory and Natural Resource Constraints: A Stocktake and Critical Assessment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(2), pages 255-268, June.
    18. Kerstin K Zander & Gillian B Ainsworth & Jürgen Meyerhoff & Stephen T Garnett, 2014. "Threatened Bird Valuation in Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-9, June.
    19. van der Hoff, Richard & Nascimento, Nathália & Fabrício-Neto, Ailton & Jaramillo-Giraldo, Carolina & Ambrosio, Geanderson & Arieira, Julia & Afonso Nobre, Carlos & Rajão, Raoni, 2022. "Policy-oriented ecosystem services research on tropical forests in South America: A systematic literature review," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Joel C. Creed & Laura Sol Aranda & Júlia Gomes de Sousa & Caio Barros Brito do Bem & Beatriz Sant’Anna Vasconcelos Marafiga Dutra & Marianna Lanari & Virgínia Eduarda de Sousa & Karine M. Magalhães & , 2023. "A Synthesis of Provision and Impact in Seagrass Ecosystem Services in the Brazilian Southwest Atlantic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-19, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:10:p:6216-:d:820004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.