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Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite ( Plasmodium vivax ) in Moscow Megacity Region

Author

Listed:
  • Varvara Mironova

    (Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia)

  • Natalia Shartova

    (Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia)

  • Andrei Beljaev

    (WHO Consultant on malaria, Former WHO Advisor on malaria, WHO EMRO, Cairo 11371, Egypt)

  • Mikhail Varentsov

    (Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia
    A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, 3 Pyzhyovskiy Pereulok, Moscow 119017, Russia
    Research Computing Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia)

  • Mikhail Grishchenko

    (Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia)

Abstract

The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz . the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.

Suggested Citation

  • Varvara Mironova & Natalia Shartova & Andrei Beljaev & Mikhail Varentsov & Mikhail Grishchenko, 2019. "Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite ( Plasmodium vivax ) in Moscow Megacity Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:5:p:694-:d:209303
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eduardo Gomes & César Capinha & Jorge Rocha & Carla Sousa, 2016. "Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Peter W. Gething & David L. Smith & Anand P. Patil & Andrew J. Tatem & Robert W. Snow & Simon I. Hay, 2010. "Climate change and the global malaria recession," Nature, Nature, vol. 465(7296), pages 342-345, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hui Zhang & Binhui Liu & Daowei Zhou & Zhengfang Wu & Ting Wang, 2019. "Asymmetric Soil Warming under Global Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Anatoly V. Kondrashin & Lola F. Morozova & Ekaterina V. Stepanova & Natalia A. Turbabina & Maria S. Maksimova & Aleksandr E. Morozov & Alina S. Anikina & Evgeny N. Morozov, 2022. "Global Climate Change and Human Dirofilariasis in Russia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Jinling Quan, 2019. "Multi-Temporal Effects of Urban Forms and Functions on Urban Heat Islands Based on Local Climate Zone Classification," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-35, June.

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