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Climate change and the global malaria recession

Author

Listed:
  • Peter W. Gething

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK)

  • David L. Smith

    (Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32610, USA
    University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32610, USA)

  • Anand P. Patil

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK)

  • Andrew J. Tatem

    (Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32610, USA
    University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA)

  • Robert W. Snow

    (Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, KEMRI – University of Oxford – Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Kenyatta National Hospital Grounds (behind NASCOP), P.O. Box 43640-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
    Centre for Tropical Medicine, University of Oxford, CCVTM, Oxford OX3 7LJ, UK)

  • Simon I. Hay

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK)

Abstract

Climate no danger to malaria control A comparison of a recently published evidence-based map of the distribution of the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite with data from 1900, before the introduction of major malaria control measures, suggests that concerns that rising temperatures are a threat to malaria control efforts are misplaced. During a century when increases in global temperature have been unequivocal, the range and intensity of malaria has diminished dramatically. The postulated effect of warming is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the effects of control measures, suggesting that the success or failure of the antimalaria programme is likely to be determined by factors other than climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter W. Gething & David L. Smith & Anand P. Patil & Andrew J. Tatem & Robert W. Snow & Simon I. Hay, 2010. "Climate change and the global malaria recession," Nature, Nature, vol. 465(7296), pages 342-345, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:465:y:2010:i:7296:d:10.1038_nature09098
    DOI: 10.1038/nature09098
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    Cited by:

    1. Henry Musoke Semakula & Guobao Song & Simon Peter Achuu & Miaogen Shen & Jingwen Chen & Paul Isolo Mukwaya & Martin Oulu & Patrick Mwanzia Mwendwa & Jannette Abalo & Shushen Zhang, 2017. "Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 415-428, August.
    2. Varvara Mironova & Natalia Shartova & Andrei Beljaev & Mikhail Varentsov & Mikhail Grishchenko, 2019. "Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite ( Plasmodium vivax ) in Moscow Megacity Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa & Ouifki, Rachid & Banasiak, Jacek, 2021. "Mathematical analysis of the impact of transmission-blocking drugs on the population dynamics of malaria," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 400(C).
    4. Kim, Jung Eun & Choi, Yongin & Lee, Chang Hyeong, 2019. "Effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission dynamics: A mathematical modeling approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 616-630.
    5. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Wisdom Akpalu & Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe, 2013. "Economic Analysis of Climate Variability Impact on Malaria Prevalence: The Case of Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17, October.
    7. Kathleen A. Alexander & Marcos Carzolio & Douglas Goodin & Eric Vance, 2013. "Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, March.
    8. Tian, Huaiyu & Zhou, Sen & Dong, Lu & Van Boeckel, Thomas P. & Pei, Yao & Wu, Qizhong & Yuan, Wenping & Guo, Yan & Huang, Shanqian & Chen, Wenhuan & Lu, Xueliang & Liu, Zhen & Bai, Yuqi & Yue, Tianxia, 2015. "Climate change suggests a shift of H5N1 risk in migratory birds," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 306(C), pages 6-15.
    9. Volker Ermert & Andreas Fink & Heiko Paeth, 2013. "The potential effects of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa using bias-corrected regionalised climate projections and a simple malaria seasonality model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 741-754, October.
    10. Lorenzo Cáceres Carrera & Carlos Victoria & Jose L Ramirez & Carmela Jackman & José E Calzada & Rolando Torres, 2019. "Study of the epidemiological behavior of malaria in the Darien Region, Panama. 2015–2017," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, November.
    11. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38597, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Maud Huynen & Pim Martens & Su-Mia Akin, 2013. "Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(6), pages 1425-1442, December.
    13. Krijn Paaijmans & Justine Blanford & Robert Crane & Michael Mann & Liang Ning & Kathleen Schreiber & Matthew Thomas, 2014. "Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 479-488, August.
    14. Fabrizio Carmignani & Sriram Shankar & Eng Tan & Kam Tang, 2014. "Identifying covariates of population health using extreme bound analysis," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(5), pages 515-531, June.
    15. Md. Galib Ishraq Emran & Rhidi Barma & Akram Hussain Khan & Mrinmoy Roy, 2024. "Reasons behind the Water Crisis and its Potential Health Outcomes," Papers 2403.07019, arXiv.org.
    16. -, 2011. "An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38589, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Richard Tol, 2013. "The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 795-808, April.
    18. David I Stern & Peter W Gething & Caroline W Kabaria & William H Temperley & Abdisalan M Noor & Emelda A Okiro & G Dennis Shanks & Robert W Snow & Simon I Hay, 2011. "Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-9, September.
    19. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Extreme temperatures and out-of-pocket medical expenditure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. McCartney, Matthew & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2010. "Water storage in an era of climate change: addressing the challenge of increasing rainfall variability. Blue paper," IWMI Reports 212430, International Water Management Institute.

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