IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/apmaco/v347y2019icp616-630.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission dynamics: A mathematical modeling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Jung Eun
  • Choi, Yongin
  • Lee, Chang Hyeong

Abstract

Malaria is a major public health concern and an economic burden around the world. Currently, malaria has been declared as endemic in 91 countries. Every year more than 200 million cases of malaria are reported and more than US$2 billion has been invested in malaria control. Recent climate change caused by global warming has affected the pattern of malaria outbreak and expanded the endemic regions. In this study, we develop a malaria transmission model associated with climate-dependent parameters. We analyze the impact of climate change on malaria transmission using climate data based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We investigate the potential risk of malaria outbreaks through the computation of seasonal reproduction number and vectorial capacity under RCP scenarios and perform a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. Our region of focus is the northern part of South Korea where Plasmodium vivax malaria is currently endemic. Our results show that climate change will increase the risk of massive malaria outbreaks in the area. Furthermore, based on the actual incidence data, we estimate the parameter values that reflect the level of controls implemented recently in Korea. We found that the current level of controls is not sufficient to mitigate the effect of climate change on malaria outbreaks and a combination of stronger control measures such as at least a 10% increase of control for humans combined with a 5% increase of control for adult mosquitoes should be implemented to reduce the risk of malaria outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jung Eun & Choi, Yongin & Lee, Chang Hyeong, 2019. "Effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission dynamics: A mathematical modeling approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 616-630.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:347:y:2019:i:c:p:616-630
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2018.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300318309743
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.amc.2018.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter W. Gething & David L. Smith & Anand P. Patil & Andrew J. Tatem & Robert W. Snow & Simon I. Hay, 2010. "Climate change and the global malaria recession," Nature, Nature, vol. 465(7296), pages 342-345, May.
    2. Simon I. Hay & Jonathan Cox & David J. Rogers & Sarah E. Randolph & David I. Stern & G. Dennis Shanks & Monica F. Myers & Robert W. Snow, 2002. "Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6874), pages 905-909, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Suh, Jiyeon & Kwon, Hee-Dae & Lee, Jeehyun, 2024. "A model of Plasmodium vivax malaria with delays: Mathematical analysis and numerical simulations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 169-187.
    2. Samad Noeiaghdam & Aliona Dreglea & Hüseyin Işık & Muhammad Suleman, 2021. "A Comparative Study between Discrete Stochastic Arithmetic and Floating-Point Arithmetic to Validate the Results of Fractional Order Model of Malaria Infection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Krijn Paaijmans & Justine Blanford & Robert Crane & Michael Mann & Liang Ning & Kathleen Schreiber & Matthew Thomas, 2014. "Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 479-488, August.
    2. Maud Huynen & Pim Martens & Su-Mia Akin, 2013. "Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(6), pages 1425-1442, December.
    3. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    4. David I Stern & Peter W Gething & Caroline W Kabaria & William H Temperley & Abdisalan M Noor & Emelda A Okiro & G Dennis Shanks & Robert W Snow & Simon I Hay, 2011. "Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-9, September.
    5. Md. Galib Ishraq Emran & Rhidi Barma & Akram Hussain Khan & Mrinmoy Roy, 2024. "Reasons behind the Water Crisis and its Potential Health Outcomes," Papers 2403.07019, arXiv.org.
    6. -, 2011. "An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38589, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Kathleen A. Alexander & Marcos Carzolio & Douglas Goodin & Eric Vance, 2013. "Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, March.
    8. Mohd Danish Khan & Hong Ha Thi Vu & Quang Tuan Lai & Ji Whan Ahn, 2019. "Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-26, August.
    9. McCartney, Matthew & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2010. "Water storage in an era of climate change: addressing the challenge of increasing rainfall variability. Blue paper," IWMI Reports 212430, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Yong-Su Kwon & Mi-Jung Bae & Namil Chung & Yeo-Rang Lee & Suntae Hwang & Sang-Ae Kim & Young Jean Choi & Young-Seuk Park, 2015. "Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Richard Tol, 2013. "The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 795-808, April.
    12. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Extreme temperatures and out-of-pocket medical expenditure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Bosello, Francesco & Roson, Roberto & Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 579-591, June.
    14. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38597, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Stratton, Leeanne & O'Neill, Marie S. & Kruk, Margaret E. & Bell, Michelle L., 2008. "The persistent problem of malaria: Addressing the fundamental causes of a global killer," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 854-862, September.
    16. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Kryman, Matthew & Smith, Taylor, 2015. "Scaling and commercializing mobile biogas systems in Kenya: A qualitative pilot study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-125.
    17. Hong, Sok Chul, 2013. "Malaria: An early indicator of later disease and work level," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 612-632.
    18. Shilu Tong & Peter Mather & Gerry Fitzgerald & David McRae & Ken Verrall & Dylan Walker, 2010. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, February.
    19. Lorenzo Cáceres Carrera & Carlos Victoria & Jose L Ramirez & Carmela Jackman & José E Calzada & Rolando Torres, 2019. "Study of the epidemiological behavior of malaria in the Darien Region, Panama. 2015–2017," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, November.
    20. Valdez, L.D. & Sibona, G.J. & Condat, C.A., 2018. "Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 96-105.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:347:y:2019:i:c:p:616-630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/applied-mathematics-and-computation .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.