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Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach

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  • Eduardo Gomes
  • César Capinha
  • Jorge Rocha
  • Carla Sousa

Abstract

Malaria is currently one of the world´s major health problems. About a half-million deaths are recorded every year. In Portugal, malaria cases were significantly high until the end of the 1950s but the disease was considered eliminated in 1973. In the past few years, endemic malaria cases have been recorded in some European countries. With the increasing human mobility from countries with endemic malaria to Portugal, there is concern about the resurgence of this disease in the country. Here, we model and map the risk of malaria transmission for mainland Portugal, considering 3 different scenarios of existing imported infections. This risk assessment resulted from entomological studies on An. atroparvus, the only known mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in the study area. We used the malariogenic potential (determined by receptivity, infectivity and vulnerability) applied over geospatial data sets to estimate spatial variation in malaria risk. The results suggest that the risk exists, and the hotspots are concentrated in the northeast region of the country and in the upper and lower Alentejo regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Gomes & César Capinha & Jorge Rocha & Carla Sousa, 2016. "Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0164788
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164788
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    Cited by:

    1. Barker, Justin R. & MacIsaac, Hugh J., 2022. "Species distribution models applied to mosquitoes: Use, quality assessment, and recommendations for best practice," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).
    2. Varvara Mironova & Natalia Shartova & Andrei Beljaev & Mikhail Varentsov & Mikhail Grishchenko, 2019. "Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite ( Plasmodium vivax ) in Moscow Megacity Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Sandra Moutinho & Jorge Rocha & Alberto Gomes & Bernardo Gomes & Ana Isabel Ribeiro, 2022. "Spatial Analysis of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Europe: A Scoping Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, July.

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