IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v16y2019i23p4599-d288891.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pre-evacuation Time Estimation Based Emergency Evacuation Simulation in Urban Residential Communities

Author

Listed:
  • Jiayan Chen

    (School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China)

  • Jia Yu

    (School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China)

  • Jiahong Wen

    (School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China)

  • Chuanrong Zhang

    (Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
    Center for Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Zhan’e Yin

    (School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China)

  • Jianping Wu

    (Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China)

  • Shenjun Yao

    (Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China)

Abstract

The timely and secure evacuation of an urban residential community is crucial to residents’ safety when emergency events happen. This is different to evacuation of office spaces or schools, emergency evacuation in residential communities must consider the pre-evacuation time. The importance of estimating evacuation time components has been recognized for approximately 40 years. However, pre-evacuation time is rarely discussed in previous community-scale emergency evacuation studies. This paper proposes a new method that estimates the pre-evacuation time, which makes the evacuation simulation in urban residential communities more realistic. This method integrates the residents’ pre-evacuation behavior data obtained by surveys to explore the influencing factors of pre-evacuation time and builds a predictive model to forecast pre-evacuation times based on the Random Forest algorithm. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to find the critical parameters in evacuation simulations. The results of evacuation simulations in different scenarios can be compared to identify potential evacuation problems. A case study in Luoshanqicun Community, Pudong New District, Shanghai, China, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. The simulation results showed that the pre-evacuation times have significant impacts on the simulation procedure, including the total evacuation time, the congestion time and the congestion degree. This study can help to gain a deeper understanding of residents’ behaviors under emergencies and improve emergency managements of urban communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiayan Chen & Jia Yu & Jiahong Wen & Chuanrong Zhang & Zhan’e Yin & Jianping Wu & Shenjun Yao, 2019. "Pre-evacuation Time Estimation Based Emergency Evacuation Simulation in Urban Residential Communities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-25, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:23:p:4599-:d:288891
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/23/4599/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/23/4599/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allaire, Douglas L. & Willcox, Karen E., 2012. "A variance-based sensitivity index function for factor prioritization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 107-114.
    2. Zhang, Jun & Song, Weiguo & Xu, Xuan, 2008. "Experiment and multi-grid modeling of evacuation from a classroom," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(23), pages 5901-5909.
    3. Hao Chu & Jia Yu & Jiahong Wen & Min Yi & Yun Chen, 2019. "Emergency Evacuation Simulation and Management Optimization in Urban Residential Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, February.
    4. Yingying Sun & Fuko Nakai & Katsuya Yamori & Michinori Hatayama, 2017. "Tsunami evacuation behavior of coastal residents in Kochi Prefecture during the 2014 Iyonada Earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 283-299, January.
    5. Mingwu Ye & Jun Wang & Jing Huang & Shiyuan Xu & Zhenlou Chen, 2012. "Methodology and its application for community-scale evacuation planning against earthquake disaster," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 881-892, April.
    6. Zhao, Daoliang & Yang, Lizhong & Li, Jian, 2008. "Occupants’ behavior of going with the crowd based on cellular automata occupant evacuation model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3708-3718.
    7. Chen, Hongyi & Kocaoglu, Dundar F., 2008. "A sensitivity analysis algorithm for hierarchical decision models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 266-288, February.
    8. L. G. Chalmet & R. L. Francis & P. B. Saunders, 1982. "Network Models for Building Evacuation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 86-105, January.
    9. Michael K. Lindell & Ronald W. Perry, 2012. "The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 616-632, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dingde Xu & Wenfeng Zhou & Xin Deng & Zhixing Ma & Zhuolin Yong & Cheng Qin, 2020. "Information credibility, disaster risk perception and evacuation willingness of rural households in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2865-2882, September.
    2. Azin Fathianpour & Suzanne Wilkinson & Mostafa Babaeian Jelodar & Barry Evans, 2023. "Reducing the vulnerability of tourists to tsunami: challenges for decision-makers," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1315-1339, September.
    3. Liu, Shaobo & Yang, Lizhong & Fang, Tingyong & Li, Jian, 2009. "Evacuation from a classroom considering the occupant density around exits," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(9), pages 1921-1928.
    4. Fu, Zhijian & Luo, Lin & Yang, Yue & Zhuang, Yifan & Zhang, Peitong & Yang, Lizhong & Yang, Hongtai & Ma, Jian & Zhu, Kongjin & Li, Yanlai, 2016. "Effect of speed matching on fundamental diagram of pedestrian flow," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 31-42.
    5. Annabelle Workman & Penelope J. Jones & Amanda J. Wheeler & Sharon L. Campbell & Grant J. Williamson & Chris Lucani & David M.J.S. Bowman & Nick Cooling & Fay H. Johnston, 2021. "Environmental Hazards and Behavior Change: User Perspectives on the Usability and Effectiveness of the AirRater Smartphone App," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Ling Jia & Queena K. Qian & Frits Meijer & Henk Visscher, 2020. "Stakeholders’ Risk Perception: A Perspective for Proactive Risk Management in Residential Building Energy Retrofits in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-25, April.
    7. Julija Michailova & Tadeusz Tyszka & Katarzyna Pfeifer, 2017. "Are People Interested in Probabilities of Natural Disasters?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(5), pages 1005-1017, May.
    8. Fang, Zhixiang & Zong, Xinlu & Li, Qingquan & Li, Qiuping & Xiong, Shengwu, 2011. "Hierarchical multi-objective evacuation routing in stadium using ant colony optimization approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 443-451.
    9. Xiongwei Quan & Gaoshan Zuo & Helin Sun, 2022. "Risk Perception Thresholds and Their Impact on the Behavior of Nearby Residents in Waste to Energy Project Conflict: An Evolutionary Game Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Julia S. Becker & Sally H. Potter & Lauren J. Vinnell & Kazuya Nakayachi & Sara K. McBride & David M. Johnston, 2020. "Earthquake early warning in Aotearoa New Zealand: a survey of public perspectives to guide warning system development," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Zheng, Yaochen & Chen, Jianqiao & Wei, Junhong & Guo, Xiwei, 2012. "Modeling of pedestrian evacuation based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(17), pages 4225-4233.
    12. David V. Pynadath & Bistra Dilkina & David C. Jeong & Richard S. John & Stacy C. Marsella & Chirag Merchant & Lynn C. Miller & Stephen J. Read, 2023. "Disaster world," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 84-117, March.
    13. Sabrina Cipolletta & Gabriela Rios Andreghetti & Giovanna Mioni, 2022. "Risk Perception towards COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Qualitative Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-25, April.
    14. P. Daniel Wright & Matthew J. Liberatore & Robert L. Nydick, 2006. "A Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 514-529, December.
    15. Gibson, Elizabeth & Daim, Tugrul U. & Dabic, Marina, 2019. "Evaluating university industry collaborative research centers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 181-202.
    16. Laura Siebeneck & Ronald Schumann & Britt-Janet Kuenanz & Seungyoon Lee & Bailey C. Benedict & Caitlyn M. Jarvis & Satish V. Ukkusuri, 2020. "Returning home after Superstorm Sandy: phases in the return-entry process," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(1), pages 195-215, March.
    17. Shuang Liu & Rui Liu & Nengzhi Tan, 2021. "A Spatial Improved-kNN-Based Flood Inundation Risk Framework for Urban Tourism under Two Rainfall Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Hiranya Sritart & Hiroyuki Miyazaki & Sakiko Kanbara & Takashi Hara, 2020. "Methodology and Application of Spatial Vulnerability Assessment for Evacuation Shelters in Disaster Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    19. Jingwen Song & Zhenzhou Lu & Pengfei Wei & Yanping Wang, 2015. "Global sensitivity analysis for model with random inputs characterized by probability-box," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(3), pages 237-253, June.
    20. Zahra Asgarizadeh & Robert Gifford, 2022. "Community and psychological barriers to tsunami preparation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1321-1336, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:23:p:4599-:d:288891. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.