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Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Kendrovski

    (WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany)

  • Michela Baccini

    (Department of Statistics, Informatics, Applications, University of Florence, 50134 Florence, Italy)

  • Gerardo Sanchez Martinez

    (WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany)

  • Tanja Wolf

    (WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany)

  • Elizabet Paunovic

    (WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany)

  • Bettina Menne

    (WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany)

Abstract

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Kendrovski & Michela Baccini & Gerardo Sanchez Martinez & Tanja Wolf & Elizabet Paunovic & Bettina Menne, 2017. "Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:7:p:729-:d:103728
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ghasem Toloo & Gerard FitzGerald & Peter Aitken & Kenneth Verrall & Shilu Tong, 2013. "Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems: systematic review of epidemiological evidence," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 58(5), pages 667-681, October.
    2. Dianne Lowe & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2011. "Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Francesca K. De’ Donato & Michela Leone & Matteo Scortichini & Manuela De Sario & Klea Katsouyanni & Timo Lanki & Xavier Basagaña & Ferran Ballester & Christofer Åström & Anna Paldy & Mathilde Pascal , 2015. "Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alina Herrmann & Rainer Sauerborn, 2018. "General Practitioners’ Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change—A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Hans-Guido Mücke & Jutta Maria Litvinovitch, 2020. "Heat Extremes, Public Health Impacts, and Adaptation Policy in Germany," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-14, October.
    3. Jongchul Park & Yeora Chae & Seo Hyung Choi, 2019. "Analysis of Mortality Change Rate from Temperature in Summer by Age, Occupation, Household Type, and Chronic Diseases in 229 Korean Municipalities from 2007–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, May.

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