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Prospective Prediction of Juvenile Homicide/Attempted Homicide among Early-Onset Juvenile Offenders

Author

Listed:
  • Michael T. Baglivio

    (G4S Youth Services, LLC, Tampa, FL 33634, USA)

  • Kevin T. Wolff

    (Department of Criminal Justice, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York, New York, NY 10019, USA)

Abstract

While homicide perpetrated by juveniles is a relatively rare occurrence, between 2010 and 2014, approximately 7%–8% of all murders involved a juvenile offender. Unfortunately, few studies have prospectively examined the predictors of homicide offending, with none examining first-time murder among a sample of adjudicated male and female youth. The current study employed data on 5908 juvenile offenders (70% male, 45% Black) first arrested at the age of 12 or younger to prospectively examine predictors of an arrest for homicide/attempted homicide by the age of 18. Among these early-onset offenders, males, Black youth, those living in households with family members with a history of mental illness, those engaging in self-mutilation, and those with elevated levels of anger/aggression (all measured by age 13) were more likely to be arrested for homicide/attempted homicide by age 18. These findings add to the scant scientific literature on the predictors of homicide, and illustrate potential avenues for intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Baglivio & Kevin T. Wolff, 2017. "Prospective Prediction of Juvenile Homicide/Attempted Homicide among Early-Onset Juvenile Offenders," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-13, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p:197-:d:90569
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caudill, Jonathan W. & Trulson, Chad R., 2016. "The hazards of premature release: Recidivism outcomes of blended-sentenced juvenile homicide offenders," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 219-227.
    2. DeLisi, Matt & Piquero, Alex R., 2011. "New frontiers in criminal careers research, 2000-2011: A state-of-the-art review," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 289-301, July.
    3. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    4. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Explaining Rare Events in International Relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 693-715, July.
    5. Baglivio, Michael T. & Wolff, Kevin T. & Piquero, Alex R. & Epps, Nathan, 2015. "The Relationship between Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) and Juvenile Offending Trajectories in a Juvenile Offender Sample," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 229-241.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Min & Tang, Ting & He, Yuheng & Tong, Yingying & Yuan, Mengyuan & Li, Yonghan & Zhang, Xueying & Wang, Gengfu & Su, Puyu, 2024. "Homicidality risk prediction based on ecological systems theory in an early adolescent cohort using machine learning," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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