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Investigating Changes in Natural Gas Demand across Great Britain for Domestic Heating Using Daily Data: 2018 to 2024

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  • Geraint Phillips

    (Energy Systems and Data Group, Birmingham Energy Institute, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK)

  • Grant Wilson

    (Energy Systems and Data Group, Birmingham Energy Institute, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK)

Abstract

This study analyses data from natural gas combination boilers across a 6-year timeframe, exploring how demand for space heating and hot water have both changed over time, and highlights the impact of factors such as external temperature and the UK energy price cap. The results show that there has been a significant decrease in annual space heating and hot water demand since 2021. Space heating typically contributes 88% of the total annual gas demand of the boilers, with hot water contributing the other 12%. For the same mean temperature across the fourth quarter (8.5 °C), 2018 had a daily mean energy demand of 50.4 kWh, whereas the 2022 value was 41.4 kWh. This 9.0 kWh (18%) difference of the daily mean for Q4 suggests a shift in consumer demand influenced by other factors such as the energy price cap. This analysis provides additional understanding of how consumer energy demand for heating continues to evolve and invites further studies to be completed on future trends of energy demand for both space heating and hot water. Here, we also highlight the benefit of considering space heating and hot water as separate demands, as this provides additional insights and is something the paper helps to advocate for.

Suggested Citation

  • Geraint Phillips & Grant Wilson, 2024. "Investigating Changes in Natural Gas Demand across Great Britain for Domestic Heating Using Daily Data: 2018 to 2024," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:19:p:4884-:d:1488555
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burke, Paul J. & Yang, Hewen, 2016. "The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 466-474.
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