IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i14p3480-d1435461.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Advancing Renewable Energy Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review of Renewable Energy Forecasting Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Rita Teixeira

    (Department of Engineering, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal)

  • Adelaide Cerveira

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
    INEC-TEC UTAD Pole, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal)

  • Eduardo J. Solteiro Pires

    (Department of Engineering, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
    INEC-TEC UTAD Pole, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal)

  • José Baptista

    (Department of Engineering, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
    INEC-TEC UTAD Pole, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal)

Abstract

Socioeconomic growth and population increase are driving a constant global demand for energy. Renewable energy is emerging as a leading solution to minimise the use of fossil fuels. However, renewable resources are characterised by significant intermittency and unpredictability, which impact their energy production and integration into the power grid. Forecasting models are increasingly being developed to address these challenges and have become crucial as renewable energy sources are integrated in energy systems. In this paper, a comparative analysis of forecasting methods for renewable energy production is developed, focusing on photovoltaic and wind power. A review of state-of-the-art techniques is conducted to synthesise and categorise different forecasting models, taking into account climatic variables, optimisation algorithms, pre-processing techniques, and various forecasting horizons. By integrating diverse techniques such as optimisation algorithms and pre-processing methods and carefully selecting the forecast horizon, it is possible to highlight the accuracy and stability of forecasts. Overall, the ongoing development and refinement of forecasting methods are crucial to achieve a sustainable and reliable energy future.

Suggested Citation

  • Rita Teixeira & Adelaide Cerveira & Eduardo J. Solteiro Pires & José Baptista, 2024. "Advancing Renewable Energy Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review of Renewable Energy Forecasting Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:14:p:3480-:d:1435461
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/14/3480/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/14/3480/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodríguez, Fermín & Fleetwood, Alice & Galarza, Ainhoa & Fontán, Luis, 2018. "Predicting solar energy generation through artificial neural networks using weather forecasts for microgrid control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 855-864.
    2. Wang, Jian & Yang, Zhongshan, 2021. "Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting using an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1418-1435.
    3. Ding, Yuanping & Dang, Yaoguo, 2023. "Forecasting renewable energy generation with a novel flexible nonlinear multivariable discrete grey prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    4. Niu, Zhewen & Yu, Zeyuan & Tang, Wenhu & Wu, Qinghua & Reformat, Marek, 2020. "Wind power forecasting using attention-based gated recurrent unit network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Ahmed, Adil & Khalid, Muhammad, 2018. "An intelligent framework for short-term multi-step wind speed forecasting based on Functional Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 902-911.
    6. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Li, Yanfei & Lu, Haibo, 2018. "A novel ensemble model of different mother wavelets for wind speed multi-step forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1783-1800.
    7. Zhang, Yachao & Le, Jian & Liao, Xiaobing & Zheng, Feng & Li, Yinghai, 2019. "A novel combination forecasting model for wind power integrating least square support vector machine, deep belief network, singular spectrum analysis and locality-sensitive hashing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 558-572.
    8. Camal, S. & Teng, F. & Michiorri, A. & Kariniotakis, G. & Badesa, L., 2019. "Scenario generation of aggregated Wind, Photovoltaics and small Hydro production for power systems applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1396-1406.
    9. Wang, Gang & Jia, Ru & Liu, Jinhai & Zhang, Huaguang, 2020. "A hybrid wind power forecasting approach based on Bayesian model averaging and ensemble learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 2426-2434.
    10. Hany Elgamal, Ahmed & Kocher-Oberlehner, Gudrun & Robu, Valentin & Andoni, Merlinda, 2019. "Optimization of a multiple-scale renewable energy-based virtual power plant in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    11. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied in wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 87-100.
    12. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & David Celeita & George Anders, 2023. "Deep and Machine Learning Models to Forecast Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    13. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Raj, Nawin & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shiqi & Yang, Wendong, 2019. "A novel non-linear combination system for short-term wind speed forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1172-1192.
    15. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1108-1125.
    16. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Bouchouicha, Kada & Nwokolo, Samuel Chukwujindu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term exogenous forecasting of photovoltaic power production using genetically optimized non-linear auto-regressive recurrent neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 191-209.
    17. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    18. He, Qingqing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A hybrid system for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 756-771.
    19. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    20. Nam, KiJeon & Hwangbo, Soonho & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2020. "A deep learning-based forecasting model for renewable energy scenarios to guide sustainable energy policy: A case study of Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    21. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    3. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Chen, Chao, 2020. "Wind speed big data forecasting using time-variant multi-resolution ensemble model with clustering auto-encoder," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    4. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu, 2020. "A vanishing moment ensemble model for wind speed multi-step prediction with multi-objective base model selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    6. Jin, Huaiping & Shi, Lixian & Chen, Xiangguang & Qian, Bin & Yang, Biao & Jin, Huaikang, 2021. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting using selective ensemble of finite mixture Gaussian process regression models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Multi-objective data-ensemble wind speed forecasting model with stacked sparse autoencoder and adaptive decomposition-based error correction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    8. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    9. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Huang, Kun & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Heydari, Azim & Astiaso Garcia, Davide & Keynia, Farshid & Bisegna, Fabio & De Santoli, Livio, 2019. "A novel composite neural network based method for wind and solar power forecasting in microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Nathan Oaks Farrar & Mohd Hasan Ali & Dipankar Dasgupta, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Grid Connected Wind Turbine Control Systems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, February.
    12. Liu, Hui & Yang, Rui & Wang, Tiantian & Zhang, Lei, 2021. "A hybrid neural network model for short-term wind speed forecasting based on decomposition, multi-learner ensemble, and adaptive multiple error corrections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 573-594.
    13. Emeksiz, Cem & Tan, Mustafa, 2022. "Wind speed estimation using novelty hybrid adaptive estimation model based on decomposition and deep learning methods (ICEEMDAN-CNN)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    14. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    15. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    16. Lim, Juin Yau & Safder, Usman & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, Chang Kyoo, 2021. "Nationwide sustainable renewable energy and Power-to-X deployment planning in South Korea assisted with forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    17. Zhang, Shuai & Chen, Yong & Xiao, Jiuhong & Zhang, Wenyu & Feng, Ruijun, 2021. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on multivariate data secondary decomposition approach and deep learning algorithm with attention mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 688-704.
    18. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based LSTM-Convolutional Network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    19. Yuan-Kang Wu & Cheng-Liang Huang & Quoc-Thang Phan & Yuan-Yao Li, 2022. "Completed Review of Various Solar Power Forecasting Techniques Considering Different Viewpoints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, May.
    20. Li, Dan & Jiang, Fuxin & Chen, Min & Qian, Tao, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid decomposition method and temporal convolutional networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:14:p:3480-:d:1435461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.