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Cost-Effective Target Capacity Assessment in the Energy Transition: The Italian Methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Enrico Maria Carlini

    (Italian Transmission System Operator, Terna S.p.A., 00156 Rome, Italy)

  • Corrado Gadaleta

    (Italian Transmission System Operator, Terna S.p.A., 00156 Rome, Italy)

  • Michela Migliori

    (Italian Transmission System Operator, Terna S.p.A., 00156 Rome, Italy)

  • Francesca Ferretti

    (Italian Transmission System Operator, Terna S.p.A., 00156 Rome, Italy)

  • Riccardo Vailati

    (Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and Environment, 20121 Milan, Italy)

  • Andrea Venturini

    (Italian Electrotechnical Experimental Center, CESI S.p.A., 20134 Milan, Italy)

  • Cinzia Puglisi

    (Italian Electrotechnical Experimental Center, CESI S.p.A., 20134 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

Long-term transmission expansion planning has to face the energy transition in a restructured electricity market environment. Increased transmission capacity within and between Member States is likely to play an essential role in maintaining the secure and economic operation of the whole European power system and ensuring the integration of growing renewable generation. This paper proposes a novel iterative methodology aimed at assessing an optimal level of interconnection between relevant bidding zones, simultaneously investigating different potential alternatives. Starting from a reference grid, a multi-criteria analysis is adopted to select the additional transmission capacities to be tested in each iteration via network and market simulations in order to confirm that transmission expansion benefits outweigh the estimated realization costs. The proposed approach is applied to the Italian case in two contrasting energy scenarios for the mid-term 2030 and very-long-term 2040 horizons: different development strategies are derived, and the least regret criterion is applied to define the most cost-effective as the target development strategy for the Transmission System Operator (TSO). Furthermore, sensitivity analyses on relevant input data variation are performed to test the robustness of the results obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Maria Carlini & Corrado Gadaleta & Michela Migliori & Francesca Ferretti & Riccardo Vailati & Andrea Venturini & Cinzia Puglisi, 2024. "Cost-Effective Target Capacity Assessment in the Energy Transition: The Italian Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-26, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:2824-:d:1411271
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bartłomiej Igliński & Michał Bernard Pietrzak & Urszula Kiełkowska & Mateusz Skrzatek & Artur Gajdos & Anas Zyadin & Karthikeyan Natarajan, 2022. "How to Meet the Green Deal Objectives—Is It Possible to Obtain 100% RES at the Regional Level in the EU?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Igliński, Bartłomiej & Pietrzak, Michał Bernard & Kiełkowska, Urszula & Skrzatek, Mateusz & Kumar, Gopalakrishnan & Piechota, Grzegorz, 2022. "The assessment of renewable energy in Poland on the background of the world renewable energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
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