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Deriving Input Variables through Applied Machine Learning for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting in Eskilstuna, Sweden

Author

Listed:
  • Pontus Netzell

    (Future Energy Center, Mälardalen University, 722 20 Västerås, Sweden)

  • Hussain Kazmi

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium)

  • Konstantinos Kyprianidis

    (Future Energy Center, Mälardalen University, 722 20 Västerås, Sweden)

Abstract

As the demand for electricity, electrification, and renewable energy rises, accurate forecasting and flexible energy management become imperative. Distribution network operators face capacity limits set by regional grids, risking economic penalties if exceeded. This study examined data-driven approaches of load forecasting to address these challenges on a city scale through a use case study of Eskilstuna, Sweden. Multiple Linear Regression was used to model electric load data, identifying key calendar and meteorological variables through a rolling origin validation process, using three years of historical data. Despite its low cost, Multiple Linear Regression outperforms the more expensive non-linear Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and both outperform the “weekly Naïve” benchmark with a relative Root Mean Square Errors of 32–34% and 39–40%, respectively. Best-practice hyperparameter settings were derived, and they emphasize frequent re-training, maximizing the training data size, and setting a lag size larger than or equal to the forecast horizon for improved accuracy. Combining both models into an ensemble could the enhance accuracy. This paper demonstrates that robust load forecasts can be achieved by leveraging domain knowledge and statistical analysis, utilizing readily available machine learning libraries. The methodology for achieving this is presented within the paper. These models have the potential for economic optimization and load-shifting strategies, offering valuable insights into sustainable energy management.

Suggested Citation

  • Pontus Netzell & Hussain Kazmi & Konstantinos Kyprianidis, 2024. "Deriving Input Variables through Applied Machine Learning for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting in Eskilstuna, Sweden," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-19, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:10:p:2246-:d:1389738
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haeran Cho & Yannig Goude & Xavier Brossat & Qiwei Yao, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting Daily Electricity Load Curves: A Hybrid Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(501), pages 7-21, March.
    2. Huber, Matthias & Dimkova, Desislava & Hamacher, Thomas, 2014. "Integration of wind and solar power in Europe: Assessment of flexibility requirements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 236-246.
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