IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i9p3748-d1134633.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms

Author

Listed:
  • Fateme Dinmohammadi

    (School of Computing and Engineering, University of West London, London W5 5RF, UK
    The Bartlett Center of Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA), University College London (UCL), Gower Street, London WC1E 6BTL, UK)

  • Yuxuan Han

    (The Bartlett Center of Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA), University College London (UCL), Gower Street, London WC1E 6BTL, UK)

  • Mahmood Shafiee

    (School of Mechanical Engineering Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK)

Abstract

The share of residential building energy consumption in global energy consumption has rapidly increased after the COVID-19 crisis. The accurate prediction of energy consumption under different indoor and outdoor conditions is an essential step towards improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon footprints in the residential building sector. In this paper, a PSO-optimized random forest classification algorithm is proposed to identify the most important factors contributing to residential heating energy consumption. A self-organizing map (SOM) approach is applied for feature dimensionality reduction, and an ensemble classification model based on the stacking method is trained on the dimensionality-reduced data. The results show that the stacking model outperforms the other models with an accuracy of 95.4% in energy consumption prediction. Finally, a causal inference method is introduced in addition to Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to explore and analyze the factors influencing energy consumption. A clear causal relationship between water pipe temperature changes, air temperature, and building energy consumption is found, compensating for the neglect of temperature in the SHAP analysis. The findings of this research can help residential building owners/managers make more informed decisions around the selection of efficient heating management systems to save on energy bills.

Suggested Citation

  • Fateme Dinmohammadi & Yuxuan Han & Mahmood Shafiee, 2023. "Predicting Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:9:p:3748-:d:1134633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/9/3748/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/9/3748/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhu, Chuanqi & Tian, Wei & Yin, Baoquan & Li, Zhanyong & Shi, Jiaxin, 2020. "Uncertainty calibration of building energy models by combining approximate Bayesian computation and machine learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    2. Nutkiewicz, Alex & Yang, Zheng & Jain, Rishee K., 2018. "Data-driven Urban Energy Simulation (DUE-S): A framework for integrating engineering simulation and machine learning methods in a multi-scale urban energy modeling workflow," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1176-1189.
    3. Alizamir, Meysam & Kim, Sungwon & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad, 2020. "A comparative study of several machine learning based non-linear regression methods in estimating solar radiation: Case studies of the USA and Turkey regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Donald B. Rubin, 2005. "Causal Inference Using Potential Outcomes: Design, Modeling, Decisions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 322-331, March.
    5. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2019. "Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    6. Zhong, Hai & Wang, Jiajun & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei & Lv, Shilei, 2019. "Vector field-based support vector regression for building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 403-414.
    7. Chengdong Li & Zixiang Ding & Dongbin Zhao & Jianqiang Yi & Guiqing Zhang, 2017. "Building Energy Consumption Prediction: An Extreme Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Zhao, Deyin & Zhong, Ming & Zhang, Xu & Su, Xing, 2016. "Energy consumption predicting model of VRV (Variable refrigerant volume) system in office buildings based on data mining," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 660-668.
    9. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    10. Naji, Sareh & Keivani, Afram & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Alengaram, U. Johnson & Jumaat, Mohd Zamin & Mansor, Zulkefli & Lee, Malrey, 2016. "Estimating building energy consumption using extreme learning machine method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 506-516.
    11. Jiang, Feifeng & Ma, Jun & Li, Zheng & Ding, Yuexiong, 2022. "Prediction of energy use intensity of urban buildings using the semi-supervised deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam Slowik & Dorin Moldovan, 2024. "Multi-Objective Plum Tree Algorithm and Machine Learning for Heating and Cooling Load Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Donatien Koulla Moulla & David Attipoe & Ernest Mnkandla & Alain Abran, 2024. "Predictive Model of Energy Consumption Using Machine Learning: A Case Study of Residential Buildings in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Suli Zhang & Yiting Chang & Hui Li & Guanghao You, 2024. "Research on Building Energy Consumption Prediction Based on Improved PSO Fusion LSSVM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Xu, Weiyan & Tu, Jielei & Xu, Ning & Liu, Zuming, 2024. "Predicting daily heating energy consumption in residential buildings through integration of random forest model and meta-heuristic algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Sami Kabir & Mohammad Shahadat Hossain & Karl Andersson, 2024. "An Advanced Explainable Belief Rule-Based Framework to Predict the Energy Consumption of Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-18, April.
    6. Khaled Bawaneh & Samir Das & Md. Rasheduzzaman, 2024. "Energy Consumption Analysis and Characterization of the Residential Sector in the US towards Sustainable Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-24, June.
    7. Jonghoon Kim & Soo-Young Moon & Daehee Jang, 2023. "Spatial Model for Energy Consumption of LEED-Certified Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-15, November.
    8. Marian B. Gorzałczany & Filip Rudziński, 2024. "Energy Consumption Prediction in Residential Buildings—An Accurate and Interpretable Machine Learning Approach Combining Fuzzy Systems with Evolutionary Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-24, July.
    9. Luca Gugliermetti & Fabrizio Cumo & Sofia Agostinelli, 2024. "A Future Direction of Machine Learning for Building Energy Management: Interpretable Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-27, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Tran, Duc-Hoc & Luong, Duc-Long & Chou, Jui-Sheng, 2020. "Nature-inspired metaheuristic ensemble model for forecasting energy consumption in residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Xiong, Suqin & Li, Yang & Li, Qiuyang & Ye, Zhishan & Pouramini, Somayeh, 2024. "Energy consumption prediction by modified fish migration optimization algorithm: City single-family homes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    4. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    6. Zhong, Hai & Wang, Jiajun & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei & Lv, Shilei, 2019. "Vector field-based support vector regression for building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 403-414.
    7. Ramya Kuppusamy & Srete Nikolovski & Yuvaraja Teekaraman, 2023. "Review of Machine Learning Techniques for Power Quality Performance Evaluation in Grid-Connected Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-29, October.
    8. Ahmed Abdelaziz & Vitor Santos & Miguel Sales Dias, 2021. "Machine Learning Techniques in the Energy Consumption of Buildings: A Systematic Literature Review Using Text Mining and Bibliometric Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-31, November.
    9. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Zhao, Yang & Song, Mengjie & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "Deep learning-based feature engineering methods for improved building energy prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 35-45.
    10. Fredrik Skaug Fadnes & Reyhaneh Banihabib & Mohsen Assadi, 2023. "Using Artificial Neural Networks to Gather Intelligence on a Fully Operational Heat Pump System in an Existing Building Cluster," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-33, May.
    11. Fu, Chun & Miller, Clayton, 2022. "Using Google Trends as a proxy for occupant behavior to predict building energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    12. Langevin, J. & Reyna, J.L. & Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S. & Sandberg, N. & Fennell, P. & Nägeli, C. & Laverge, J. & Delghust, M. & Mata, É. & Van Hove, M. & Webster, J. & Federico, F. & Jakob, M. & Camaras, 2020. "Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Rongjiang Ma & Shen Yang & Xianlin Wang & Xi-Cheng Wang & Ming Shan & Nanyang Yu & Xudong Yang, 2020. "Systematic Method for the Energy-Saving Potential Calculation of Air-Conditioning Systems via Data Mining. Part I: Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Luo, X.J. & Oyedele, Lukumon O. & Ajayi, Anuoluwapo O. & Akinade, Olugbenga O. & Owolabi, Hakeem A. & Ahmed, Ashraf, 2020. "Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Xiao, Fu & Ma, Jie & Lee, Dasheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Tseng, Yen Chieh, 2020. "Statistical investigations of transfer learning-based methodology for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    16. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    17. Muideen Adegoke & Alaka Hafiz & Saheed Ajayi & Razak Olu-Ajayi, 2022. "Application of Multilayer Extreme Learning Machine for Efficient Building Energy Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Gautham Krishnadas & Aristides Kiprakis, 2020. "A Machine Learning Pipeline for Demand Response Capacity Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-25, April.
    19. Abbasabadi, Narjes & Ashayeri, Mehdi & Azari, Rahman & Stephens, Brent & Heidarinejad, Mohammad, 2019. "An integrated data-driven framework for urban energy use modeling (UEUM)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:9:p:3748-:d:1134633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.