IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i2p942-d1035678.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Economic Analysis of Energy Consumption at Student Residences in a South African-Based Academic Institution Using NARX Neural Network

Author

Listed:
  • Olusola Olaitan Ayeleru

    (Centre for Nanoengineering and Tribocorrosion, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa)

  • Joshua Adeniyi Adeniran

    (Centre for Nanoengineering and Tribocorrosion, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa)

  • Sula Bantubakhona Kwesi Ntsaluba

    (Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technology, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa)

  • Lanrewaju Ibrahim Fajimi

    (Centre for Nanoengineering and Tribocorrosion, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa)

  • Peter Apata Olubambi

    (Centre for Nanoengineering and Tribocorrosion, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa)

Abstract

One of the issues associated with the supply of electricity is its generation capacity, and this has led to prevalent power cuts and high costs of usage experienced in many developing nations, including South Africa. Historical research has shown that the annual rate of increase for electricity has grown at an alarming rate since 2008 and, in some years, has grown as much as 16%. The objectives of this study are to estimate the cost analysis of electricity usage at the twenty-nine residences of the University of Johannesburg (UJ-Res) and propose a model for our university, as well as other South African universities, to become more energy-efficient. This was achieved by analyzing the tariffs between 2015 and 2021. A forecast was made for a period of five years (2021 to 2026) using a non-linear autoregressive exogenous neural network ( NARX-NN ) time-series model. From the results obtained, the better NARX-NN model studied has a root mean squared error ( RMSE ) of 2.47 × 10 5 and a determination coefficient ( R 2 ) of 0.9661. The projection result also shows that the annual cost of energy consumed will increase for the projected years, with the year 2022 being the peak with an estimated annual cost of over ZAR 30 million (USD 2,076,268).

Suggested Citation

  • Olusola Olaitan Ayeleru & Joshua Adeniyi Adeniran & Sula Bantubakhona Kwesi Ntsaluba & Lanrewaju Ibrahim Fajimi & Peter Apata Olubambi, 2023. "An Economic Analysis of Energy Consumption at Student Residences in a South African-Based Academic Institution Using NARX Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-14, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:942-:d:1035678
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/2/942/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/2/942/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karanfil, Fatih & Li, Yuanjing, 2015. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Exploring panel-specific differences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 264-277.
    2. Usenobong F. Akpan & Godwin E. Akpan, 2012. "The Contribution of Energy Consumption to Climate Change:A Feasible Policy Direction," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 21-33.
    3. Anthony Emeakaroha & Chee Siang Ang & Yong Yan, 2012. "Challenges in Improving Energy Efficiency in a University Campus Through the Application of Persuasive Technology and Smart Sensors," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-29, December.
    4. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Muhammad Imran Khan & Muhammad Rehan, 2020. "The relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Ahmad, Ashfaq & Zhao, Yuhuan & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Bano, Sadia & Zhang, Zhonghua & Wang, Song & Liu, Ya, 2016. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 131-143.
    6. Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin & Xia, De & Gao, Qinglu, 2022. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using empirical wavelet transform and long short-term memory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    7. Chowdhury, Jahedul Islam & Hu, Yukun & Haltas, Ismail & Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye & Matthew, George Jr. & Varga, Liz, 2018. "Reducing industrial energy demand in the UK: A review of energy efficiency technologies and energy saving potential in selected sectors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1153-1178.
    8. Muhammad Azim Mohd Shukri & Junaidah Jailani & Ali Hauashdh, 2022. "Benchmarking the Energy Efficiency of Higher Educational Buildings: A Case Study Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 491-496, March.
    9. Hlalefang Khobai & Pierre Le Roux, 2017. "The Relationship between Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emission: The Case of South Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 102-109.
    10. Hennessey, Ryan & Pittman, Jeremy & Morand, Annette & Douglas, Allan, 2017. "Co-benefits of integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Canadian energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 214-221.
    11. Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship & Daw, Olebogeng David, 2022. "Electricity consumption and population growth in South Africa: A panel approach," MPRA Paper 113828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Liu, Lirong & Huang, Gordon & Baetz, Brian & Cheng, Guanhui & Pittendrigh, Scott M. & Pan, Siyue, 2020. "Input-output modeling analysis with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors for climate change policy-making: A case study of Saskatchewan, Canada," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 1307-1317.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sultan Salem & Noman Arshed & Ahsan Anwar & Mubasher Iqbal & Nyla Sattar, 2021. "Renewable Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions—Testing Nonlinearity for Highly Carbon Emitting Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Yu-Ke, Chen & Hassan, Muhammad Shahid & Kalim, Rukhsana & Mahmood, Haider & Arshed, Noman & Salman, Muhammad, 2022. "Testing asymmetric influence of clean and unclean energy for targeting environmental quality in environmentally poor economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 765-775.
    3. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Hasan Güngör & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2022. "Consumption‐based carbon emissions, renewable energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in Chile," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1123-1137, March.
    4. Anwar, Ahsan & Siddique, Muhammad & Eyup Dogan, & Sharif, Arshian, 2021. "The moderating role of renewable and non-renewable energy in environment-income nexus for ASEAN countries: Evidence from Method of Moments Quantile Regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 956-967.
    5. Matheus Koengkan & Luciano Dias Losekann & José Alberto Fuinhas, 2019. "The relationship between economic growth, consumption of energy, and environmental degradation: renewed evidence from Andean community nations," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 95-107, March.
    6. Muhammad Jawad Sajid & Zhang Yu & Syed Abdul Rehman, 2022. "The Coal, Petroleum, and Gas Embedded in the Sectoral Demand-and-Supply Chain: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Jun, Wen & Mughal, Nafeesa & Zhao, Jin & Shabbir, Malik Shahzad & Niedbała, Gniewko & Jain, Vipin & Anwar, Ahsan, 2021. "Does globalization matter for environmental degradation? Nexus among energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Chakamera, Chengete & Alagidede, Paul, 2018. "Electricity crisis and the effect of CO2 emissions on infrastructure-growth nexus in Sub Saharan Africa," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 945-958.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    10. Yue, Shen & Munir, Irfan Ullah & Hyder, Shabir & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Qazi Abro, Muhammad Moinuddin & Zaman, Khalid, 2020. "Sustainable food production, forest biodiversity and mineral pricing: Interconnected global issues," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Ünal, Berat Berkan & Onaygil, Sermin & Acuner, Ebru & Cin, Rabia, 2022. "Application of energy efficiency obligation scheme for electricity distribution companies in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-546 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Nuno Carlos Leitão, 2021. "Testing the Role of Trade on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Portugal," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, February.
    14. Sinha, Avik & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emission: Role of renewable energy generation in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 703-711.
    15. Sarvar Gurbanov, 2021. "Role of Natural Gas Consumption in the Reduction of CO 2 Emissions: Case of Azerbaijan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    16. Carmen Díaz-Roldán & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2021. "Innovations and ICT: Do They Favour Economic Growth and Environmental Quality?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, March.
    17. Qu, Fang & Chen, Yufeng & Zheng, Biao, 2021. "Is new energy driven by crude oil, high-tech sector or low-carbon notion? New evidence from high-frequency data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    18. Sohail Abbas & Shazia Kousar & Amber Pervaiz, 2021. "Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13364-13381, September.
    19. Zhongdong Yu & Wei Liu & Liming Chen & Serkan Eti & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel, 2019. "The Effects of Electricity Production on Industrial Development and Sustainable Economic Growth: A VAR Analysis for BRICS Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Neves, Sónia Almeida, 2018. "Ordinary and Special Regimes of electricity generation in Spain: How they interact with economic activity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1226-1240.
    21. Solomon P. Nathaniel & Festus V. Bekun, 2020. "Electricity Consumption, Urbanization and Economic Growth in Nigeria: New Insights from Combined Cointegration amidst Structural Breaks," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/013, Research Africa Network (RAN).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:942-:d:1035678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.