IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2022i1p369-d1018332.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate Strategy Using Artificial Neural Networks for Seasonal Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Max Olinto Moreira

    (Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology—South of Minas Gerais, Carmo de Minas 37472-000, MG, Brazil
    Institute of Electrical Systems and Energy, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá 37500-903, MG, Brazil)

  • Betania Mafra Kaizer

    (Institute of Production Engineering and Management, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá 37500-903, MG, Brazil)

  • Takaaki Ohishi

    (Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty, State University of Campinas, Campinas 13083-970, SP, Brazil)

  • Benedito Donizeti Bonatto

    (Institute of Electrical Systems and Energy, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá 37500-903, MG, Brazil)

  • Antonio Carlos Zambroni de Souza

    (Institute of Electrical Systems and Energy, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá 37500-903, MG, Brazil)

  • Pedro Paulo Balestrassi

    (Institute of Electrical Systems and Energy, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá 37500-903, MG, Brazil
    Institute of Production Engineering and Management, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá 37500-903, MG, Brazil)

Abstract

Electric power systems have experienced the rapid insertion of distributed renewable generating sources and, as a result, are facing planning and operational challenges as new grid connections are made. The complexity of this management and the degree of uncertainty increase significantly and need to be better estimated. Considering the high volatility of photovoltaic generation and its impacts on agents in the electricity sector, this work proposes a multivariate strategy based on design of experiments (DOE), principal component analysis (PCA), artificial neural networks (ANN) that combines the resulting outputs using Mixture DOE (MDOE) for photovoltaic generation prediction a day ahead. The approach separates the data into seasons of the year and considers multiple climatic variables for each period. Here, the dimensionality reduction of climate variables is performed through PCA. Through DOE, the possibilities of combining prediction parameters, such as those of ANN, were reduced, without compromising the statistical reliability of the results. Thus, 17 generation plants distributed in the Brazilian territory were tested. The one-day-ahead PV generation forecast has been considered for each generation plant in each season of the year, reaching mean percentage errors of 10.45% for summer, 9.29% for autumn, 9.11% for winter and 6.75% for spring. The versatility of the proposed approach allows the choice of parameters in a systematic way and reduces the computational cost, since there is a reduction in dimensionality and in the number of experimental simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Olinto Moreira & Betania Mafra Kaizer & Takaaki Ohishi & Benedito Donizeti Bonatto & Antonio Carlos Zambroni de Souza & Pedro Paulo Balestrassi, 2022. "Multivariate Strategy Using Artificial Neural Networks for Seasonal Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-30, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2022:i:1:p:369-:d:1018332
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/1/369/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/1/369/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Urolagin, Siddhaling & Sharma, Nikhil & Datta, Tapan Kumar, 2021. "A combined architecture of multivariate LSTM with Mahalanobis and Z-Score transformations for oil price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. Dai, Yeming & Wang, Yanxin & Leng, Mingming & Yang, Xinyu & Zhou, Qiong, 2022. "LOWESS smoothing and Random Forest based GRU model: A short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    3. Tokuda, Eric K. & Comin, Cesar H. & Costa, Luciano da F., 2022. "Revisiting agglomerative clustering," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    4. Haghighat, Fatemeh, 2021. "Predicting the trend of indicators related to Covid-19 using the combined MLP-MC model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Rigo, Paula D. & Siluk, Julio Cezar M. & Lacerda, Daniel P. & Spellmeier, Júlia P., 2022. "Competitive business model of photovoltaic solar energy installers in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 39-50.
    6. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    7. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhou, Yilin & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Hour-ahead photovoltaic generation forecasting method based on machine learning and multi objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    8. Moreira, M.O. & Balestrassi, P.P. & Paiva, A.P. & Ribeiro, P.F. & Bonatto, B.D., 2021. "Design of experiments using artificial neural network ensemble for photovoltaic generation forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Gu, Bo & Shen, Huiqiang & Lei, Xiaohui & Hu, Hao & Liu, Xinyu, 2021. "Forecasting and uncertainty analysis of day-ahead photovoltaic power using a novel forecasting method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    10. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Barrow, Devon & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Another look at forecast selection and combination: Evidence from forecast pooling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 226-235.
    11. Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin & Xia, De & Gao, Qinglu, 2022. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using empirical wavelet transform and long short-term memory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    12. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Liu, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Liu, Wuming, 2022. "Time series forecasting for hourly photovoltaic power using conditional generative adversarial network and Bi-LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    13. Monica Borunda & Adrián Ramírez & Raul Garduno & Gerardo Ruíz & Sergio Hernandez & O. A. Jaramillo, 2022. "Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting for Regional Assessment Using Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-25, November.
    14. Kim, Jangkyum & Oh, Hyeontaek & Choi, Jun Kyun, 2022. "Learning based cost optimal energy management model for campus microgrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    15. Athanasios Ioannis Arvanitidis & Dimitrios Bargiotas & Aspassia Daskalopulu & Dimitrios Kontogiannis & Ioannis P. Panapakidis & Lefteri H. Tsoukalas, 2022. "Clustering Informed MLP Models for Fast and Accurate Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    16. Niu, Dongxiao & Yu, Min & Sun, Lijie & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke, 2022. "Short-term multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy systems based on CNN-BiGRU optimized by attention mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    17. Si, Zhiyuan & Yang, Ming & Yu, Yixiao & Ding, Tingting, 2021. "Photovoltaic power forecast based on satellite images considering effects of solar position," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niu, Yunbo & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Ziyuan & Luo, Tianrui & Liu, Jingjiang, 2024. "De-Trend First, Attend Next: A Mid-Term PV forecasting system with attention mechanism and encoder–decoder structure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    2. Zhi, Yuan & Yang, Xudong, 2023. "Scenario-based multi-objective optimization strategy for rural PV-battery systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 345(C).
    3. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Du, Ruoyun & Yu, Xiaoyu & Sun, Lijie & Wang, Feiran, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power point-interval forecasting based on double-layer decomposition and WOA-BiLSTM-Attention and considering weather classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    5. Yifei Chen & Zhihan Fu, 2023. "Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting of the Energy Consumed by the Residential and Commercial Sectors in the United States Based on a Hybrid CNN-BiLSTM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo & Seman, Laio Oriel & Aquino, Luiza Scapinello & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2023. "Wavelet-Seq2Seq-LSTM with attention for time series forecasting of level of dams in hydroelectric power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    7. Wang, Min & Rao, Congjun & Xiao, Xinping & Hu, Zhuo & Goh, Mark, 2024. "Efficient shrinkage temporal convolutional network model for photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    8. Huang, Congzhi & Yang, Mengyuan, 2023. "Memory long and short term time series network for ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    9. Zhao, Geya & Xue, Minggao & Cheng, Li, 2023. "A new hybrid model for multi-step WTI futures price forecasting based on self-attention mechanism and spatial–temporal graph neural network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    10. Khan, Junaid Iqbal & Ullah, Farman & Lee, Sungchang, 2022. "Attention based parameter estimation and states forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic using modified SIQRD Model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    11. Ma, Xin & Peng, Bo & Ma, Xiangxue & Tian, Changbin & Yan, Yi, 2023. "Multi-timescale optimization scheduling of regional integrated energy system based on source-load joint forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    12. Wang, Junjie & Ye, Li & Ding, Xiaoyu & Dang, Yaoguo, 2024. "A novel seasonal grey prediction model with time-lag and interactive effects for forecasting the photovoltaic power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    13. Yuvaraj Natarajan & Sri Preethaa K. R. & Gitanjali Wadhwa & Young Choi & Zengshun Chen & Dong-Eun Lee & Yirong Mi, 2024. "Enhancing Building Energy Efficiency with IoT-Driven Hybrid Deep Learning Models for Accurate Energy Consumption Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-23, February.
    14. liu, Qian & li, Yulin & jiang, Hang & chen, Yilin & zhang, Jiang, 2024. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on multiple mode decomposition and parallel bidirectional long short term combined with convolutional neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    15. Bo Gu & Xi Li & Fengliang Xu & Xiaopeng Yang & Fayi Wang & Pengzhan Wang, 2023. "Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis of Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Based on WT-CNN-BiLSTM-AM-GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-27, April.
    16. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Impact of the tilt angle, inverter sizing factor and row spacing on the photovoltaic power forecast accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    17. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Jesus Lopez-Sotelo & David Celeita, 2023. "An Intra-Day Electricity Price Forecasting Based on a Probabilistic Transformer Neural Network Architecture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-24, September.
    18. Putri Nor Liyana Mohamad Radzi & Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Noraisyah Mohamed Shah, 2023. "Review on the Application of Photovoltaic Forecasting Using Machine Learning for Very Short- to Long-Term Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    19. Chen, Xiang & Ding, Kun & Zhang, Jingwei & Han, Wei & Liu, Yongjie & Yang, Zenan & Weng, Shuai, 2022. "Online prediction of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power using chaotic characteristic analysis, improved PSO and KELM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    20. Hu, Zehuan & Gao, Yuan & Ji, Siyu & Mae, Masayuki & Imaizumi, Taiji, 2024. "Improved multistep ahead photovoltaic power prediction model based on LSTM and self-attention with weather forecast data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2022:i:1:p:369-:d:1018332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.