IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v135y2021ics1364032120307371.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Design of experiments using artificial neural network ensemble for photovoltaic generation forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Moreira, M.O.
  • Balestrassi, P.P.
  • Paiva, A.P.
  • Ribeiro, P.F.
  • Bonatto, B.D.

Abstract

In recent years, renewable and sustainable energy sources have attracted the attention of various investors and stakeholders, such as energy sector agents and even consumers. It is perplexing to observe and anticipate the required levels of photovoltaic generation, which are inherent tasks for such rapid insertion into the electric grid. This distributed/renewable generation must be integrated in a coordinated way such that there is no negative impact on the electric performance of the grid, increasing in the complexity of energy management. In this article, a methodology for photovoltaic generation forecasting is addressed for a horizon of one week ahead, using a new approach based on an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble. Two main questions will be explored with this approach: how to select the ANNs, and how to combine them in the ensemble. The design of experiments (DOE) approach is applied to the photovoltaic time series factors and ANN factors. Then, a cluster analysis is performed to select the best networks. From this point on, a mixture (MDE) is employed to determine the ideal weights for the ensemble formation. The methodology is detailed throughout the paper and, based on the combination of forecasts, the photovoltaic generation was estimated for a specific panel set located in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, reaching the value of 4.7% for the weekly mean absolute percentage error. The versatility of the proposed method allowed the change of the number of factors to be used in the experimental arrangement, the forecast model, and the desired forecast horizon, and consequently enhancing the forecasting determination.

Suggested Citation

  • Moreira, M.O. & Balestrassi, P.P. & Paiva, A.P. & Ribeiro, P.F. & Bonatto, B.D., 2021. "Design of experiments using artificial neural network ensemble for photovoltaic generation forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:135:y:2021:i:c:s1364032120307371
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.110450
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032120307371
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110450?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. WenBo Xiao & Gina Nazario & HuaMing Wu & HuaMing Zhang & Feng Cheng, 2017. "A neural network based computational model to predict the output power of different types of photovoltaic cells," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-8, September.
    2. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Şahin, Mehmet, 2017. "Forecasting long-term global solar radiation with an ANN algorithm coupled with satellite-derived (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) for regional locations in Queensland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 828-848.
    3. Lima, Francisco J.L. & Martins, Fernando R. & Pereira, Enio B. & Lorenz, Elke & Heinemann, Detlev, 2016. "Forecast for surface solar irradiance at the Brazilian Northeastern region using NWP model and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 807-818.
    4. Amrouche, Badia & Le Pivert, Xavier, 2014. "Artificial neural network based daily local forecasting for global solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 333-341.
    5. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    6. Wen, Lulu & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Lu, Xinhui, 2019. "Optimal load dispatch of community microgrid with deep learning based solar power and load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1053-1065.
    7. Theocharides, Spyros & Makrides, George & Livera, Andreas & Theristis, Marios & Kaimakis, Paris & Georghiou, George E., 2020. "Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    8. Cervone, Guido & Clemente-Harding, Laura & Alessandrini, Stefano & Delle Monache, Luca, 2017. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and an Analog Ensemble," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 274-286.
    9. Barbieri, Florian & Rajakaruna, Sumedha & Ghosh, Arindam, 2017. "Very short-term photovoltaic power forecasting with cloud modeling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 242-263.
    10. Qing, Xiangyun & Niu, Yugang, 2018. "Hourly day-ahead solar irradiance prediction using weather forecasts by LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 461-468.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jabar H. Yousif & Hussein A. Kazem & Haitham Al-Balushi & Khaled Abuhmaidan & Reem Al-Badi, 2022. "Artificial Neural Network Modelling and Experimental Evaluation of Dust and Thermal Energy Impact on Monocrystalline and Polycrystalline Photovoltaic Modules," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Cheng, Lilin & Zang, Haixiang & Wei, Zhinong & Zhang, Fengchun & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Evaluation of opaque deep-learning solar power forecast models towards power-grid applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 960-972.
    3. Asadi, Meysam & Ramezanzade, Mohsen & Pourhossein, Kazem, 2023. "A global evaluation model applied to wind power plant site selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    4. Na Sun & Nan Zhang & Shuai Zhang & Tian Peng & Wei Jiang & Jie Ji & Xiangmiao Hao, 2022. "An Integrated Framework Based on an Improved Gaussian Process Regression and Decomposition Technique for Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    5. Lakhdar Nadjib Boucetta & Youssouf Amrane & Aissa Chouder & Saliha Arezki & Sofiane Kichou, 2024. "Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Power Plant: A Novel Approach Using Hybrid Variational Mode Decomposition and a CNN-LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Chen, Xiang & Ding, Kun & Zhang, Jingwei & Han, Wei & Liu, Yongjie & Yang, Zenan & Weng, Shuai, 2022. "Online prediction of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power using chaotic characteristic analysis, improved PSO and KELM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    7. Liu, Jingxuan & Zang, Haixiang & Ding, Tao & Cheng, Lilin & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2023. "Harvesting spatiotemporal correlation from sky image sequence to improve ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 619-631.
    8. Putri Nor Liyana Mohamad Radzi & Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Noraisyah Mohamed Shah, 2023. "Review on the Application of Photovoltaic Forecasting Using Machine Learning for Very Short- to Long-Term Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhou, Yilin & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Hour-ahead photovoltaic generation forecasting method based on machine learning and multi objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    10. Max Olinto Moreira & Betania Mafra Kaizer & Takaaki Ohishi & Benedito Donizeti Bonatto & Antonio Carlos Zambroni de Souza & Pedro Paulo Balestrassi, 2022. "Multivariate Strategy Using Artificial Neural Networks for Seasonal Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-30, December.
    11. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Du, Ruoyun & Yu, Xiaoyu & Sun, Lijie & Wang, Feiran, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power point-interval forecasting based on double-layer decomposition and WOA-BiLSTM-Attention and considering weather classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    12. Niu, Yunbo & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Ziyuan & Luo, Tianrui & Liu, Jingjiang, 2024. "De-Trend First, Attend Next: A Mid-Term PV forecasting system with attention mechanism and encoder–decoder structure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    13. Iván E. Villalón-Turrubiates & Rogelio López-Herrera & Jorge L. García-Alcaraz & José R. Díaz-Reza & Arturo Soto-Cabral & Iván González-Lazalde & Gerardo Grijalva-Avila & José L. Rodríguez-Álvarez, 2022. "A Non-Invasive Method to Evaluate Fuzzy Process Capability Indices via Coupled Applications of Artificial Neural Networks and the Placket–Burman DOE," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-27, August.
    14. Gu, Bo & Shen, Huiqiang & Lei, Xiaohui & Hu, Hao & Liu, Xinyu, 2021. "Forecasting and uncertainty analysis of day-ahead photovoltaic power using a novel forecasting method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    15. Ma, Huixin & Zhang, Chu & Peng, Tian & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Li, Yiman, 2022. "An integrated framework of gated recurrent unit based on improved sine cosine algorithm for photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    16. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong & Huang, Chao, 2021. "Methodological framework for short-and medium-term energy, solar and wind power forecasting with stochastic-based machine learning approach to monetary and energy policy applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    17. Li, Fengyun & Zheng, Haofeng & Li, Xingmei, 2022. "A novel hybrid model for multi-step ahead photovoltaic power prediction based on conditional time series generative adversarial networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 560-586.
    18. Ma, Xiangyu & Zhou, Huijie & Li, Zhiyi, 2021. "On the resilience of modern power systems: A complex network perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Hu, Zehuan & Gao, Yuan & Ji, Siyu & Mae, Masayuki & Imaizumi, Taiji, 2024. "Improved multistep ahead photovoltaic power prediction model based on LSTM and self-attention with weather forecast data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhter, Muhammad Naveed & Mekhilef, Saad & Mokhlis, Hazlie & Ali, Raza & Usama, Muhammad & Muhammad, Munir Azam & Khairuddin, Anis Salwa Mohd, 2022. "A hybrid deep learning method for an hour ahead power output forecasting of three different photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    2. Xu, Fang Yuan & Tang, Rui Xin & Xu, Si Bin & Fan, Yi Liang & Zhou, Ya & Zhang, Hao Tian, 2021. "Neural network-based photovoltaic generation capacity prediction system with benefit-oriented modification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    3. Li, Pengtao & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui & Yang, Shanlin, 2020. "A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    6. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    7. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Raj, Nawin & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Martina Radicioni & Valentina Lucaferri & Francesco De Lia & Antonino Laudani & Roberto Lo Presti & Gabriele Maria Lozito & Francesco Riganti Fulginei & Riccardo Schioppo & Mario Tucci, 2021. "Power Forecasting of a Photovoltaic Plant Located in ENEA Casaccia Research Center," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Samu, Remember & Calais, Martina & Shafiullah, G.M. & Moghbel, Moayed & Shoeb, Md Asaduzzaman & Nouri, Bijan & Blum, Niklas, 2021. "Applications for solar irradiance nowcasting in the control of microgrids: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    11. Zhen, Hao & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Shi, Yucheng & Ji, Zhengsen & Xu, Xiaomin, 2021. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based on GA improved Bi-LSTM in microgrid without meteorological information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    12. Li, Chengdong & Zhou, Changgeng & Peng, Wei & Lv, Yisheng & Luo, Xin, 2020. "Accurate prediction of short-term photovoltaic power generation via a novel double-input-rule-modules stacked deep fuzzy method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    13. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.
    14. Luo, Xing & Zhang, Dongxiao & Zhu, Xu, 2021. "Deep learning based forecasting of photovoltaic power generation by incorporating domain knowledge," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    15. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    16. Verdone, Alessio & Scardapane, Simone & Panella, Massimo, 2024. "Explainable Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for multi-site photovoltaic energy production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    17. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    18. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    19. Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Duc-Anh An-Vo & Mumtaz Ali & Nawin Raj & Shahab Abdulla, 2020. "Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    20. Zheng, Jianqin & Zhang, Haoran & Dai, Yuanhao & Wang, Bohong & Zheng, Taicheng & Liao, Qi & Liang, Yongtu & Zhang, Fengwei & Song, Xuan, 2020. "Time series prediction for output of multi-region solar power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:135:y:2021:i:c:s1364032120307371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.