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Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic Economy (including the Energy Industry)

Author

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  • Svetlana Badina

    (Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, 1, 119991 Moscow, Russia
    Laboratory of Regional Policy and Regional Investment Processes, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Stremyanny Lane, 36, 117997 Moscow, Russia)

  • Alexey Pankratov

    (Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1-46, 119991 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

Ongoing climate change most pronounces itself in northern latitudes, including in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). Climate change is a complex multidirectional process that is characterized by both positive and negative effects on the functioning of territorial economic systems. In this regard, an analysis of the impacts of climate change on economic development is a particularly urgent scientific and practical task that requires comprehensive study. This research was devoted to assessing the probable impacts of climate transformations on the parameters of the economic development of the AZRF regions. The authors created a methodological approach to the assessment of the costs of the effects of climate change for the economy of the AZRF regions, taking into account the average predicted dynamics of surface air temperature and key regional economic specializations, as well as the degree of susceptibility of various industries to the climate change. The energy industry was considered in particular detail since it is the basis for all of the other industries and is the guarantor of life support for the populations that live in the extreme Arctic climate. Calculations have shown that the accumulated economic effects of climate change as a whole for the AZRF economy during the period 2020–2050 will be negative and have been estimated as having a cost of more than RUB 8 trillion (or nearly USD 111 billion in 2020 prices), which would be about 3% of total Russian Arctic GRP in average annual terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Badina & Alexey Pankratov, 2022. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic Economy (including the Energy Industry)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:8:p:2849-:d:793203
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vladimir P. Melnikov & Victor I. Osipov & Anatoly V. Brouchkov & Arina A. Falaleeva & Svetlana V. Badina & Mikhail N. Zheleznyak & Marat R. Sadurtdinov & Nikolay A. Ostrakov & Dmitry S. Drozdov & Alex, 2022. "Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 231-251, May.
    2. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    3. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph F. Francois & Hugo Rojas†Romagosa, 2018. "Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 1095-1127, May.
    4. B. N. Porfiryev, 2019. "Effective Action Strategy to Cope with Climate Change and Its Impact on Russia’s Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 235-244, May.
    5. S. V. Badina, 2020. "Prediction of Socioeconomic Risks in the Cryolithic Zone of the Russian Arctic in the Context of Upcoming Climate Changes," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 396-403, July.
    6. Gail Whiteman & Dmitry Yumashev, 2018. "Poles Apart: The Arctic & Management Studies," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(5), pages 873-879, July.
    7. Dmitry Yumashev & Chris Hope & Kevin Schaefer & Kathrin Riemann-Campe & Fernando Iglesias-Suarez & Elchin Jafarov & Eleanor J. Burke & Paul J. Young & Yasin Elshorbany & Gail Whiteman, 2019. "Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. A. A. Pankratov & E. A. Kuvshinova & L. S. Galstyan, 2021. "Quantitative Assessment of the Socioeconomic Potential of Advanced Development Territories of Regions of the Far Eastern Federal District," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 407-414, July.
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