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Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Yumashev

    (Lancaster University
    Lancaster University)

  • Chris Hope

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Kevin Schaefer

    (University of Colorado)

  • Kathrin Riemann-Campe

    (Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung)

  • Fernando Iglesias-Suarez

    (Lancaster University
    Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC)

  • Elchin Jafarov

    (University of Colorado
    Earth and Environmental Sciences EES-16, Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Eleanor J. Burke

    (UK Met Office)

  • Paul J. Young

    (Lancaster University
    Lancaster University
    Lancaster University)

  • Yasin Elshorbany

    (University of South Florida)

  • Gail Whiteman

    (Lancaster University)

Abstract

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Yumashev & Chris Hope & Kevin Schaefer & Kathrin Riemann-Campe & Fernando Iglesias-Suarez & Elchin Jafarov & Eleanor J. Burke & Paul J. Young & Yasin Elshorbany & Gail Whiteman, 2019. "Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09863-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Svetlana Badina & Alexey Pankratov, 2022. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic Economy (including the Energy Industry)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Joseph, Lambert & Giles, Thomas & Nishatabbas, Rehmatulla & Tristan, Smith, 2021. "A techno-economic environmental cost model for Arctic shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 28-51.
    3. Albert Wijngaarden & John C. Moore & Bjorn Alfthan & Tiina Kurvits & Lars Kullerud, 2024. "A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(4), pages 1-23, April.
    4. N. A. Serova & V. A. Serova, 2021. "Transport Infrastructure of the Russian Arctic: Specifics Features and Development Prospects," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 214-220, March.
    5. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. R. Warren & C. Hope & D. E. H. J. Gernaat & D. P. Vuuren & K. Jenkins, 2021. "Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-15, October.
    7. Sandra Gschnaller, 2020. "The albedo loss from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the social cost of carbon," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2201-2231, December.
    8. Nicholas Stern, 2022. "A Time for Action on Climate Change and a Time for Change in Economics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1259-1289.
    9. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. Stern, Nicholas, 2022. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. John C. Moore & Ilona Mettiäinen & Michael Wolovick & Liyun Zhao & Rupert Gladstone & Ying Chen & Stefan Kirchner & Timo Koivurova, 2021. "Targeted Geoengineering: Local Interventions with Global Implications," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 108-118, April.
    13. Vladimir P. Melnikov & Victor I. Osipov & Anatoly V. Brouchkov & Arina A. Falaleeva & Svetlana V. Badina & Mikhail N. Zheleznyak & Marat R. Sadurtdinov & Nikolay A. Ostrakov & Dmitry S. Drozdov & Alex, 2022. "Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 231-251, May.
    14. Yeora Chae & Seo Hyung Choi & Yong Jee Kim, 2020. "Climate Change Policy Implications of Sustainable Development Pathways in Korea at Sub-National Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, May.
    15. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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