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Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels

Author

Listed:
  • R. Warren

    (University of East Anglia)

  • C. Hope

    (University of Cambridge)

  • D. E. H. J. Gernaat

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • D. P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • K. Jenkins

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

We quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO2 emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 °C warming.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Warren & C. Hope & D. E. H. J. Gernaat & D. P. Vuuren & K. Jenkins, 2021. "Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:168:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03198-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03198-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kedi Liu & Ranran Wang & Inge Schrijver & Rutger Hoekstra, 2024. "Can we project well-being? Towards integral well-being projections in climate models and beyond," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Rachel Warren & Oliver Andrews & Sally Brown & Felipe J. Colón-González & Nicole Forstenhäusler & David E. H. J. Gernaat & P. Goodwin & Ian Harris & Yi He & Chris Hope & Desmond Manful & Timothy J. Os, 2022. "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-16, June.
    3. Algaba, E. & Márquez, G. & Martínez-Lozano, J. & Sánchez-Soriano, J., 2023. "A novel methodology for public management of annual greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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