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Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting via General Regression Neural Network with Grey Wolf Optimization

Author

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  • Chia-Sheng Tu

    (School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College, Zhangzhou 363105, China)

  • Wen-Chang Tsai

    (School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College, Zhangzhou 363105, China)

  • Chih-Ming Hong

    (Department of Electronic Communication Engineering, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 811213, Taiwan)

  • Whei-Min Lin

    (School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College, Zhangzhou 363105, China)

Abstract

With the increasing awareness of environmental protection and the support of national policy, as well as the maturing of solar power generation technology, solar power generation has become one of the most promising renewable energies. However, due to changes in external factors such as season, time, weather, cloud cover, etc., solar radiation is uncertain, and it is difficult to predict energy output, even for the next hour. This inherent instability is a particularly difficult issue for the prediction of energy output in the effective operation of solar power systems. This paper proposes a grey wolf optimization (GWO)-based general regression neural network (GRNN), which is expected to provide more accurate predictions with shorter computational times. Therefore, a self-organizing map (SOM) is utilized to realize the weather clustering and the training of the GRNN with a GWO model. The performance of the proposed model is investigated using short-term and ultra-short-term forecasting in different seasons. It is very important to accurately predict the PV power output. Moreover, the numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can significantly enhance the prediction accuracy of PV systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Sheng Tu & Wen-Chang Tsai & Chih-Ming Hong & Whei-Min Lin, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting via General Regression Neural Network with Grey Wolf Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:18:p:6624-:d:911593
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Barbosa de Alencar & Carolina De Mattos Affonso & Roberto Célio Limão de Oliveira & Jorge Laureano Moya Rodríguez & Jandecy Cabral Leite & José Carlos Reston Filho, 2017. "Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, November.
    2. Li, Yanting & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2014. "An ARMAX model for forecasting the power output of a grid connected photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 78-89.
    3. Gangqiang Li & Huaizhi Wang & Shengli Zhang & Jiantao Xin & Huichuan Liu, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Networks Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed A. Ali & Ashraf Elsayed & Islam Elkabani & Mohammad Akrami & M. Elsayed Youssef & Gasser E. Hassan, 2023. "Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks for the Accurate Prediction of Global Solar Radiation: A Performance Comparison with Conventional Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-30, August.
    2. Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Jeong-Hun Kim & Yoonsung Shin & Sanghyun Choi & Aziz Nasridinov, 2022. "Feasibility Study on the Influence of Data Partition Strategies on Ensemble Deep Learning: The Case of Forecasting Power Generation in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Hubert Szczepaniuk & Edyta Karolina Szczepaniuk, 2022. "Applications of Artificial Intelligence Algorithms in the Energy Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Tahir, Muhammad Faizan & Yousaf, Muhammad Zain & Tzes, Anthony & El Moursi, Mohamed Shawky & El-Fouly, Tarek H.M., 2024. "Enhanced solar photovoltaic power prediction using diverse machine learning algorithms with hyperparameter optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    5. Natei Ermias Benti & Mesfin Diro Chaka & Addisu Gezahegn Semie, 2023. "Forecasting Renewable Energy Generation with Machine Learning and Deep Learning: Current Advances and Future Prospects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-33, April.
    6. Wen-Chang Tsai & Chih-Ming Hong & Chia-Sheng Tu & Whei-Min Lin & Chiung-Hsing Chen, 2023. "A Review of Modern Wind Power Generation Forecasting Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-40, July.

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