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Effects of Occupants and Local Air Temperatures as Sources of Stochastic Uncertainty in District Energy System Modeling

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  • Martín Mosteiro-Romero

    (Architecture and Building Systems, ETH Zurich, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 1, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
    Current address: Department of Architecture, School of Design and Environment, National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore 117566, Singapore.)

  • Arno Schlueter

    (Architecture and Building Systems, ETH Zurich, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 1, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

Input uncertainty is one of the major obstacles urban building energy models (UBEM) must tackle. The aim of this paper was to quantify the effects of two of the main sources of stochastic uncertainty, namely building occupants and urban microclimate, on electrical and thermal supply system sizing at the district scale. In order to analyze the effects of the former, three different methods of occupant modeling were implemented in a UBEM. The effects of the urban heat island on system sizing were studied through the use of measured temperature data from a weather station in the case study district compared to measured data from a national weather station. The methods developed were used to assess the sizing and costs of centralized and decentralized technologies for a case study in central Zurich, Switzerland. The choice of occupant modeling approach was found to affect the district’s total annualized costs for space heating and cooling by ±5%, whereas for the costs of electricity the variation was ±8%. Regarding outdoor temperature, the effects on the heating demands proved be negligible, however the costs of the cooling alternatives were found to vary by about 4% at the district scale due to the effect of urban climate, for individual buildings this deviation was as high as 40%.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Mosteiro-Romero & Arno Schlueter, 2021. "Effects of Occupants and Local Air Temperatures as Sources of Stochastic Uncertainty in District Energy System Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-30, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2295-:d:539015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Štefan Bojnec & Alan Križaj, 2021. "Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.

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