IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i21p7078-d667545.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Colombia’s GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario: Complete Representation of the Energy and Non-Energy Sectors in LEAP

Author

Listed:
  • Juan David Correa-Laguna

    (VITO, The Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
    EnergyVille, Thor Park 8310-8320, 3600 Genk, Belgium)

  • Maarten Pelgrims

    (VITO, The Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
    EnergyVille, Thor Park 8310-8320, 3600 Genk, Belgium)

  • Monica Espinosa Valderrama

    (Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá 111711, Colombia)

  • Ricardo Morales

    (Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá 111711, Colombia)

Abstract

The signatory countries of the Paris Agreement must submit their updated Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC secretariat every five years. In Colombia, this activity was historically carried out with a wide set of diverse non-interconnected sector-specific models. Given the complexity of GHG emissions reporting and the evaluation of mitigation actions on a national scale, the need for a centralized platform was evident. Such approach would allow the integration and analysis of potential interactions among sectors, as well as to guarantee the homogeneity of assumptions and input parameters. In this paper, we describe the construction of an integrated bottom-up LEAP model tailored to the Colombian case, which covers all IPCC sectors. An integrated model facilitates capturing synergies and intersectoral interactions within the national GHG emissions system. Hence, policies addressing one sector and influencing others are identified and correctly assessed. Thus, 44 mitigation policies and mitigation actions were included in the model, in this way, identifying the sectors directly and being indirectly affected by them. The mitigation scenario developed in this paper reaches a reduction of 28% of GHG emissions compared with the reference scenario. The importance of including non-energy sectors is evident in the Colombian case, as GHG emission reductions are mainly driven by AFOLU. The first section describes the GHG emissions context in Colombia. Next, we describe the model structure, main input parameters, assumptions, considerations, and used LEAP functionalities. Results are presented from a GHG emissions accounting and energy demand perspective. The model allows for the correct estimate of the scope and potential of mitigation actions by considering indirect, unintended emissions reductions in all IPCC categories, as well as synergies with all mitigation actions included in the mitigation scenario. Moreover, the structure of the model is suitable for testing potential emission trajectories, facilitating its adoption by official entities and its application in climate policymaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan David Correa-Laguna & Maarten Pelgrims & Monica Espinosa Valderrama & Ricardo Morales, 2021. "Colombia’s GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario: Complete Representation of the Energy and Non-Energy Sectors in LEAP," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-24, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:21:p:7078-:d:667545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7078/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7078/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simsek, Yeliz & Sahin, Hasret & Lorca, Álvaro & Santika, Wayan G. & Urmee, Tania & Escobar, Rodrigo, 2020. "Comparison of energy scenario alternatives for Chile: Towards low-carbon energy transition by 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    2. -, 2015. "Final assessment report. Assessment of Development Account Project 06/07 AM Strengthening national capacities to design and implement sustainable energy policies for the production and use of biofuels," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40163, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    4. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Acosta-Pazmiño, Iván P. & Rivera-Solorio, C.I. & Gijón-Rivera, M., 2021. "Scaling-up the installation of hybrid solar collectors to reduce CO2 emissions in a Mexican industrial sector from now to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    3. Ismael Mohammed Saeed & Ahmad Tarkhany & Younis Hama & Shwan Al-Shatri, 2023. "Environmental considerations, sustainability opportunities and Iraqi government’s energy policies: a comparative study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6879-6895, July.
    4. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    5. Hussain, Arif & Perwez, Usama & Ullah, Kafait & Kim, Chul-Hwan & Asghar, Nosheen, 2021. "Long-term scenario pathways to assess the potential of best available technologies and cost reduction of avoided carbon emissions in an existing 100% renewable regional power system: A case study of G," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Simsek, Yeliz & Sahin, Hasret & Lorca, Álvaro & Santika, Wayan G. & Urmee, Tania & Escobar, Rodrigo, 2020. "Comparison of energy scenario alternatives for Chile: Towards low-carbon energy transition by 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    7. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    8. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Flores, Francisco & Feijoo, Felipe & DeStephano, Paelina & Herc, Luka & Pfeifer, Antun & Duić, Neven, 2024. "Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    10. Yao Qian & Lang Sun & Quanyi Qiu & Lina Tang & Xiaoqi Shang & Chengxiu Lu, 2020. "Analysis of CO 2 Drivers and Emissions Forecast in a Typical Industry-Oriented County: Changxing County, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    11. Lari Shanlang Tiewsoh & Jakub Jirásek & Martin Sivek, 2019. "Electricity Generation in India: Present State, Future Outlook and Policy Implications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Haijun Zhao & Weichun Ma & Hongjia Dong & Ping Jiang, 2017. "Analysis of Co-Effects on Air Pollutants and CO 2 Emissions Generated by End-of-Pipe Measures of Pollution Control in China’s Coal-Fired Power Plants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, March.
    13. Mina Masoomi & Mostafa Panahi & Reza Samadi, 2022. "Demand side management for electricity in Iran: cost and emission analysis using LEAP modeling framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 5667-5693, April.
    14. Amigo, Pía & Cea-Echenique, Sebastián & Feijoo, Felipe, 2021. "A two stage cap-and-trade model with allowance re-trading and capacity investment: The case of the Chilean NDC targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    15. El-Baz, Wessam & Tzscheutschler, Peter, 2015. "Short-term smart learning electrical load prediction algorithm for home energy management systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 10-19.
    16. Yi Zhao & Gang Lin & Dong Jiang & Jingying Fu & Xiang Li, 2022. "Low-Carbon Development from the Energy–Water Nexus Perspective in China’s Resource-Based City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, September.
    17. Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin & Xia, De & Gao, Qinglu, 2022. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using empirical wavelet transform and long short-term memory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    18. Sana Bashir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Sajid Rashid Ahmad, 2018. "Low-Emission Modeling for Energy Demand in the Household Sector: A Study of Pakistan as a Developing Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    19. Melissa Valencia-Duque & Juan Zapata-Mina & Juan E. Tibaquir & Juan Carlos Castillo, 2023. "Sustainability Analysis of Electricity Generation in Colombia through the Projection of Energy Efficiency Indicators," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 255-263, July.
    20. Matamala, Yolanda & Flores, Francisco & Arriet, Andrea & Khan, Zarrar & Feijoo, Felipe, 2023. "Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:21:p:7078-:d:667545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.