IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2023-04-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sustainability Analysis of Electricity Generation in Colombia through the Projection of Energy Efficiency Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Melissa Valencia-Duque

    (Energy Management Research Group - Generg tica, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Universidad Tecnol gica de Pereira, Colombia)

  • Juan Zapata-Mina

    (Energy Management Research Group - Generg tica, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Universidad Tecnol gica de Pereira, Colombia)

  • Juan E. Tibaquir

    (Energy Management Research Group - Generg tica, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Universidad Tecnol gica de Pereira, Colombia)

  • Juan Carlos Castillo

    (Energy Management Research Group - Generg tica, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Universidad Tecnol gica de Pereira, Colombia)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to determine whether current electric power generation practices in Colombia will cover future electricity demand in a sustainable manner. For this purpose, a projection of a current trend scenario was made using the Autoregressive Vectors model, and the results were compared with the projected electricity demand for the country to the year 2030. An analysis of generation efficiency as a technical indicator, of primary energy intensity as an economic indicator, and of carbon emission intensity as an environmental indicator was carried out. It was identified that starting in 2025, electricity generation will not be able to cover the country's electricity demand at its upper limit, and by 2030 demand will exceed generation in its medium scenario. Therefore, it is advisable to implement energy efficiency strategies that will either reduce end-user electricity demand or increase electricity generation by 2025. On the other hand, the country's electricity generation process tends to increase its ? and reduce both its IEP and IEC by 2030, which indicates that the rate of improvement of electricity generation practices in Colombia, which is implicit in the historical data analyzed, will be sufficient to achieve sustainable generation in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Melissa Valencia-Duque & Juan Zapata-Mina & Juan E. Tibaquir & Juan Carlos Castillo, 2023. "Sustainability Analysis of Electricity Generation in Colombia through the Projection of Energy Efficiency Indicators," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 255-263, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-04-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/14206/7395
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14206
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B.W. & Su, Bin, 2016. "Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: A global analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 56-63.
    2. Guefano, Serge & Tamba, Jean Gaston & Azong, Tchitile Emmanuel Wilfried & Monkam, Louis, 2021. "Forecast of electricity consumption in the Cameroonian residential sector by Grey and vector autoregressive models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    3. Dargahi, Hassan & Khameneh, Kazem Biabany, 2019. "Energy intensity determinants in an energy-exporting developing economy: Case of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1031-1044.
    4. Rovere, Emilio Lebre La & Soares, Jeferson Borghetti & Oliveira, Luciano Basto & Lauria, Tatiana, 2010. "Sustainable expansion of electricity sector: Sustainability indicators as an instrument to support decision making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 422-429, January.
    5. Zabaloy, Maria Florencia & Viego, Valentina, 2022. "Household electricity demand in Latin America and the Caribbean: A meta-analysis of price elasticity," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan David Rivera-Niquepa & Daniela Rojas-Lozano & Paulo M. De Oliveira-De Jesus & Jose M. Yusta, 2022. "Decomposition Analysis of the Aggregate Carbon Intensity (ACI) of the Power Sector in Colombia—A Multi-Temporal Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Yang, Xue & Su, Bin, 2019. "Impacts of international export on global and regional carbon intensity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Yang, Xue & Xu, He & Su, Bin, 2022. "Factor decomposition for global and national aggregate energy intensity change during 2000–2014," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    4. Zhu, Bangzhu & Su, Bin & Li, Yingzhu & Ng, Tsan Sheng, 2020. "Embodied energy and intensity in China’s (normal and processing) exports and their driving forces, 2005-2015," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Le Sun & Congmou Zhu & Shaofeng Yuan & Lixia Yang & Shan He & Wuyan Li, 2022. "Exploring the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Agricultural Carbon Emission Performance in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Dey, Subhashish & Sreenivasulu, Anduri & Veerendra, G.T.N. & Rao, K. Venkateswara & Babu, P.S.S. Anjaneya, 2022. "Renewable energy present status and future potentials in India: An overview," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    7. Hong, Junjie & Shi, Fangyuan & Zheng, Yuhan, 2023. "Does network infrastructure construction reduce energy intensity? Based on the “Broadband China” strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    8. Mostafa Shaaban & Jürgen Scheffran & Jürgen Böhner & Mohamed S. Elsobki, 2018. "Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, May.
    9. Tian, Kailan & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Yan, Bingqian & Duan, Yuwan, 2020. "Upgrading or downgrading: China's regional carbon emission intensity evolution and its determinants," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Jin, Taeyoung, 2022. "Impact of heat and electricity consumption on energy intensity: A panel data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    11. Xiao, Hao & Sun, Ke-Juan & Bi, Hui-Min & Xue, Jin-Jun, 2019. "Changes in carbon intensity globally and in countries: Attribution and decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1492-1504.
    12. Alizadeh, Reza & Gharizadeh Beiragh, Ramin & Soltanisehat, Leili & Soltanzadeh, Elham & Lund, Peter D., 2020. "Performance evaluation of complex electricity generation systems: A dynamic network-based data envelopment analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    13. Jianfeng Guo & Bin Su & Guang Yang & Lianyong Feng & Yinpeng Liu & Fu Gu, 2018. "How Do Verified Emissions Announcements Affect the Comoves between Trading Behaviors and Carbon Prices? Evidence from EU ETS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    14. Zhou, Di & Huang, Qing & Chong, Zhaohui, 2022. "Analysis on the effect and mechanism of land misallocation on carbon emissions efficiency: Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Berjawi, A.E.H. & Walker, S.L. & Patsios, C. & Hosseini, S.H.R., 2021. "An evaluation framework for future integrated energy systems: A whole energy systems approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Harmsen, Robert & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2021. "Unhiding the role of CHP in power & heat sector decomposition analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    17. Ifaei, Pouya & Tayerani Charmchi, Amir Saman & Loy-Benitez, Jorge & Yang, Rebecca Jing & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2022. "A data-driven analytical roadmap to a sustainable 2030 in South Korea based on optimal renewable microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Yao Qian & Lang Sun & Quanyi Qiu & Lina Tang & Xiaoqi Shang & Chengxiu Lu, 2020. "Analysis of CO 2 Drivers and Emissions Forecast in a Typical Industry-Oriented County: Changxing County, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    19. Goldrath, T. & Ayalon, O. & Shechter, M., 2015. "A combined sustainability index for electricity efficiency measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 574-584.
    20. Xing Zhao & Xin Zhang, 2022. "Research on the Evaluation and Regional Differences in Carbon Emissions Efficiency of Cultural and Related Manufacturing Industries in China’s Yangtze River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Power generation; Forecast performance; Energy efficiency; Sustainability indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P18 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Energy; Environment
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-04-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.