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Prediction of Climate Change Effect on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Arid Region

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  • Mohamed Elhadi Matallah

    (Laboratory of Design and Modelling of Architectural and Urban Forms and Ambiances (LACOMOFA), Department of Architecture, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria
    Sustainable Building Design (SBD) Lab, Department of UEE, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Université de Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
    Department of Architecture, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria)

  • Waqas Ahmed Mahar

    (Sustainable Building Design (SBD) Lab, Department of UEE, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Université de Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
    Department of Architecture, Balochistan University of Information Technology, Engineering and Management Sciences (BUITEMS), Airport Road, Baleli, Quetta 87100, Pakistan)

  • Mushk Bughio

    (Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, SungKyunKwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea
    Department of Architecture, Dawood University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi 74800, Pakistan)

  • Djamel Alkama

    (Department of Architecture, University of Guelma, Guelma 24000, Algeria)

  • Atef Ahriz

    (Department of Architecture, University of Tebessa, Constantine Road, Tebessa 12000, Algeria)

  • Soumia Bouzaher

    (Department of Architecture, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria)

Abstract

Climate change and expected weather patterns in the long-term threaten the livelihood inside oases settlements in arid lands, particularly under the recurring heat waves during the harsh months. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the outdoor thermal comfort within a multifamily housing neighborhood that is considered the most common residential archetype in Algerian Sahara, under extreme weather conditions in the summer season, in the long-term. It focuses on assessing the outdoor thermal comfort in the long-term, based on the Perceived Temperature index (PT), using simulation software ENVI-met and calculation model RayMan. Three different stations in situ were conducted and combined with TMY weather datasets for 2020 and the IPCC future projections: A1B, A2, B1 for 2050, and 2080. The results are performed from two different perspectives: to investigate how heat stress evolution undergoes climate change from 2020 till 2080; and for the development of a mathematical algorithm to predict the outdoor thermal comfort values in short-term, medium-term and long-term durations. The results indicate a gradual increase in PT index values, starting from 2020 and progressively elevated to 2080 during the summer season, which refers to an extreme thermal heat-stress level with differences in PT index averages between 2020 and 2050 (+5.9 °C), and 2080 (+7.7 °C), meaning no comfortable thermal stress zone expected during 2080. This study gives urban climate researchers, architects, designers and urban planners several insights into predicted climate circumstances and their impacts on outdoor thermal comfort for the long-term under extreme weather conditions, in order to take preventive measures for the cities’ planning in the arid regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Elhadi Matallah & Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Mushk Bughio & Djamel Alkama & Atef Ahriz & Soumia Bouzaher, 2021. "Prediction of Climate Change Effect on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Arid Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-26, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:16:p:4730-:d:608227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohamed Elhadi Matallah & Djamel Alkama & Jacques Teller & Atef Ahriz & Shady Attia, 2021. "Quantification of the Outdoor Thermal Comfort within Different Oases Urban Fabrics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Shady Attia, 2020. "Spatial and Behavioral Thermal Adaptation in Net Zero Energy Buildings: An Exploratory Investigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
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    4. Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Griet Verbeeck & Sigrid Reiter & Shady Attia, 2020. "Sensitivity Analysis of Passive Design Strategies for Residential Buildings in Cold Semi-Arid Climates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Moazami, Amin & Nik, Vahid M. & Carlucci, Salvatore & Geving, Stig, 2019. "Impacts of future weather data typology on building energy performance – Investigating long-term patterns of climate change and extreme weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 696-720.
    6. Memon, Shazim Ali, 2014. "Phase change materials integrated in building walls: A state of the art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 870-906.
    7. Yau, Y.H. & Hasbi, S., 2013. "A review of climate change impacts on commercial buildings and their technical services in the tropics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 430-441.
    8. Mushk Bughio & Muhammad Shoaib Khan & Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Thorsten Schuetze, 2021. "Impact of Passive Energy Efficiency Measures on Cooling Energy Demand in an Architectural Campus Building in Karachi, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-35, June.
    9. Samir Semahi & Mohammed Amin Benbouras & Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Noureddine Zemmouri & Shady Attia, 2020. "Development of Spatial Distribution Maps for Energy Demand and Thermal Comfort Estimation in Algeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-25, July.
    10. Mushk Bughio & Thorsten Schuetze & Waqas Ahmed Mahar, 2020. "Comparative Analysis of Indoor Environmental Quality of Architectural Campus Buildings’ Lecture Halls and its’ Perception by Building Users, in Karachi, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-29, April.
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