IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i16p4730-d608227.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of Climate Change Effect on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Arid Region

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Elhadi Matallah

    (Laboratory of Design and Modelling of Architectural and Urban Forms and Ambiances (LACOMOFA), Department of Architecture, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria
    Sustainable Building Design (SBD) Lab, Department of UEE, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Université de Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
    Department of Architecture, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria)

  • Waqas Ahmed Mahar

    (Sustainable Building Design (SBD) Lab, Department of UEE, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Université de Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
    Department of Architecture, Balochistan University of Information Technology, Engineering and Management Sciences (BUITEMS), Airport Road, Baleli, Quetta 87100, Pakistan)

  • Mushk Bughio

    (Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, SungKyunKwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea
    Department of Architecture, Dawood University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi 74800, Pakistan)

  • Djamel Alkama

    (Department of Architecture, University of Guelma, Guelma 24000, Algeria)

  • Atef Ahriz

    (Department of Architecture, University of Tebessa, Constantine Road, Tebessa 12000, Algeria)

  • Soumia Bouzaher

    (Department of Architecture, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria)

Abstract

Climate change and expected weather patterns in the long-term threaten the livelihood inside oases settlements in arid lands, particularly under the recurring heat waves during the harsh months. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the outdoor thermal comfort within a multifamily housing neighborhood that is considered the most common residential archetype in Algerian Sahara, under extreme weather conditions in the summer season, in the long-term. It focuses on assessing the outdoor thermal comfort in the long-term, based on the Perceived Temperature index (PT), using simulation software ENVI-met and calculation model RayMan. Three different stations in situ were conducted and combined with TMY weather datasets for 2020 and the IPCC future projections: A1B, A2, B1 for 2050, and 2080. The results are performed from two different perspectives: to investigate how heat stress evolution undergoes climate change from 2020 till 2080; and for the development of a mathematical algorithm to predict the outdoor thermal comfort values in short-term, medium-term and long-term durations. The results indicate a gradual increase in PT index values, starting from 2020 and progressively elevated to 2080 during the summer season, which refers to an extreme thermal heat-stress level with differences in PT index averages between 2020 and 2050 (+5.9 °C), and 2080 (+7.7 °C), meaning no comfortable thermal stress zone expected during 2080. This study gives urban climate researchers, architects, designers and urban planners several insights into predicted climate circumstances and their impacts on outdoor thermal comfort for the long-term under extreme weather conditions, in order to take preventive measures for the cities’ planning in the arid regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Elhadi Matallah & Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Mushk Bughio & Djamel Alkama & Atef Ahriz & Soumia Bouzaher, 2021. "Prediction of Climate Change Effect on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Arid Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-26, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:16:p:4730-:d:608227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/4730/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/4730/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohamed Elhadi Matallah & Djamel Alkama & Jacques Teller & Atef Ahriz & Shady Attia, 2021. "Quantification of the Outdoor Thermal Comfort within Different Oases Urban Fabrics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Shady Attia, 2020. "Spatial and Behavioral Thermal Adaptation in Net Zero Energy Buildings: An Exploratory Investigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Jamei, Elmira & Rajagopalan, Priyadarsini & Seyedmahmoudian, Mohammadmehdi & Jamei, Yashar, 2016. "Review on the impact of urban geometry and pedestrian level greening on outdoor thermal comfort," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1002-1017.
    4. Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Griet Verbeeck & Sigrid Reiter & Shady Attia, 2020. "Sensitivity Analysis of Passive Design Strategies for Residential Buildings in Cold Semi-Arid Climates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Moazami, Amin & Nik, Vahid M. & Carlucci, Salvatore & Geving, Stig, 2019. "Impacts of future weather data typology on building energy performance – Investigating long-term patterns of climate change and extreme weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 696-720.
    6. Memon, Shazim Ali, 2014. "Phase change materials integrated in building walls: A state of the art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 870-906.
    7. Yau, Y.H. & Hasbi, S., 2013. "A review of climate change impacts on commercial buildings and their technical services in the tropics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 430-441.
    8. Mushk Bughio & Muhammad Shoaib Khan & Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Thorsten Schuetze, 2021. "Impact of Passive Energy Efficiency Measures on Cooling Energy Demand in an Architectural Campus Building in Karachi, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-35, June.
    9. Samir Semahi & Mohammed Amin Benbouras & Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Noureddine Zemmouri & Shady Attia, 2020. "Development of Spatial Distribution Maps for Energy Demand and Thermal Comfort Estimation in Algeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-25, July.
    10. Mushk Bughio & Thorsten Schuetze & Waqas Ahmed Mahar, 2020. "Comparative Analysis of Indoor Environmental Quality of Architectural Campus Buildings’ Lecture Halls and its’ Perception by Building Users, in Karachi, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-29, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Przesmycka & Bartłomiej Kwiatkowski & Małgorzata Kozak, 2022. "The Thermal Comfort Problem in Public Space during the Climate Change Era Based on the Case Study of Selected Area in Lublin City in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-26, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mushk Bughio & Muhammad Shoaib Khan & Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Thorsten Schuetze, 2021. "Impact of Passive Energy Efficiency Measures on Cooling Energy Demand in an Architectural Campus Building in Karachi, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-35, June.
    2. Mohamed Elhadi Matallah & Djamel Alkama & Jacques Teller & Atef Ahriz & Shady Attia, 2021. "Quantification of the Outdoor Thermal Comfort within Different Oases Urban Fabrics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Hassan Bazazzadeh & Peiman Pilechiha & Adam Nadolny & Mohammadjavad Mahdavinejad & Seyedeh sara Hashemi safaei, 2021. "The Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Building Energy Consumption in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Mushk Bughio & Swati Bahale & Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Thorsten Schuetze, 2022. "Parametric Performance Analysis of the Cooling Potential of Earth-to-Air Heat Exchangers in Hot and Humid Climates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Bell, N.O. & Bilbao, J.I. & Kay, M. & Sproul, A.B., 2022. "Future climate scenarios and their impact on heating, ventilation and air-conditioning system design and performance for commercial buildings for 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Ahsan Waqar & Idris Othman & Nasir Shafiq & Hasim Altan & Bertug Ozarisoy, 2023. "Modeling the Effect of Overcoming the Barriers to Passive Design Implementation on Project Sustainability Building Success: A Structural Equation Modeling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, June.
    7. Aliyeva, Xeniya & Memon, Shazim Ali & Nazir, Kashif & Kim, Jong, 2024. "Energy consumption forecasting in PCM-integration buildings considering building and environmental parameters for future climate scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    8. Ren, Miao & Zhao, Hua & Gao, Xiaojian, 2022. "Effect of modified diatomite based shape-stabilized phase change materials on multiphysics characteristics of thermal storage mortar," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Ikutegbe, Charles A. & Farid, Mohammed M., 2020. "Application of phase change material foam composites in the built environment: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Thobile Zikhathile & Harrison Atagana & Joseph Bwapwa & David Sawtell, 2022. "A Review of the Impact That Healthcare Risk Waste Treatment Technologies Have on the Environment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, September.
    11. Jamei, E. & Ossen, D.R. & Seyedmahmoudian, M. & Sandanayake, M. & Stojcevski, A. & Horan, B., 2020. "Urban design parameters for heat mitigation in tropics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Rostami, Sara & Afrand, Masoud & Shahsavar, Amin & Sheikholeslami, M. & Kalbasi, Rasool & Aghakhani, Saeed & Shadloo, Mostafa Safdari & Oztop, Hakan F., 2020. "A review of melting and freezing processes of PCM/nano-PCM and their application in energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    13. Meng, Fanchao & Zhang, Lei & Ren, Guoyu & Zhang, Ruixue, 2023. "Impacts of UHI on variations in cooling loads in buildings during heatwaves: A case study of Beijing and Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    14. Delia D’Agostino & Danny Parker & Ilenia Epifani & Dru Crawley & Linda Lawrie, 2022. "Datasets on Energy Simulations of Standard and Optimized Buildings under Current and Future Weather Conditions across Europe," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-18, May.
    15. Ruparathna, Rajeev & Hewage, Kasun & Sadiq, Rehan, 2016. "Improving the energy efficiency of the existing building stock: A critical review of commercial and institutional buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1032-1045.
    16. Aditya, L. & Mahlia, T.M.I. & Rismanchi, B. & Ng, H.M. & Hasan, M.H. & Metselaar, H.S.C. & Muraza, Oki & Aditiya, H.B., 2017. "A review on insulation materials for energy conservation in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1352-1365.
    17. Ayikoe Tettey, Uniben Yao & Gustavsson, Leif, 2020. "Energy savings and overheating risk of deep energy renovation of a multi-storey residential building in a cold climate under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Nazir, Kashif & Memon, Shazim Ali & Saurbayeva, Assemgul, 2024. "A novel framework for developing a machine learning-based forecasting model using multi-stage sensitivity analysis to predict the energy consumption of PCM-integrated building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    19. Ahmed, Wahhaj & Asif, Muhammad, 2021. "A critical review of energy retrofitting trends in residential buildings with particular focus on the GCC countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    20. Hui Chen & Yin Wei & Yaolin Lin & Wei Yang & Xiaoming Chen & Maria Kolokotroni & Xiaohong Liu & Guoqiang Zhang, 2020. "Investigation on the Thermal Condition of a Traditional Cold-Lane in Summer in Subtropical Humid Climate Region of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:16:p:4730-:d:608227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.