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Granger Causality Network Methods for Analyzing Cross-Border Electricity Trading between Greece, Italy, and Bulgaria

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  • George P. Papaioannou

    (Research, Technology & Development Department, Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) S.A., 104 43 Athens, Greece
    Center for Research and Applications in Nonlinear Systems (CRANS), Department of Mathematics, University of Patras, 26 500 Patras, Greece
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Christos Dikaiakos

    (Research, Technology & Development Department, Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) S.A., 104 43 Athens, Greece
    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Patras, 26 500 Patras, Greece
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Christos Kaskouras

    (Research, Technology & Development Department, Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) S.A., 104 43 Athens, Greece
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • George Evangelidis

    (Department of Transmission System Operations & Control, Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) S.A., 104 43 Athens, Greece
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Fotios Georgakis

    (Market Management Department, Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) S.A., 104 43 Athens, Greece
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Italy, Greece, and, to a lesser degree, Bulgaria have experienced fast growth in their renewable generation capacity (RESc) over the last several years. The consequences of this fact include a decrease in spot wholesale prices in electricity markets and a significant effect on cross border trading (CBT) among neighboring interconnected countries. In this work, we empirically analyzed historical data on fundamental market variables (i.e., spot prices, load, RES generation) as well as CBT data (imports, exports, commercial schedules, net transfer capacities, etc.) on the Greek, Italian, and Bulgarian electricity markets by applying the Granger causality connectivity analysis (GCCA) approach. The aim of this analysis was to detect all possible interactions among the abovementioned variables, focusing in particular on the effects of growing shares of RES generation on the commercial electricity trading among the abovementioned countries for the period 2015–2018. The key findings of this paper are summarized as the following: The RES generation in Italy, for the period examined, drives the spot prices in Greece via commercial schedules. In addition, on average, spot price fluctuations do not affect the commercial schedules of energy trading between Greece and Bulgaria.

Suggested Citation

  • George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Christos Kaskouras & George Evangelidis & Fotios Georgakis, 2020. "Granger Causality Network Methods for Analyzing Cross-Border Electricity Trading between Greece, Italy, and Bulgaria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:4:p:900-:d:321852
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Despoina I. Makrygiorgou & Nikos Andriopoulos & Ioannis Georgantas & Christos Dikaiakos & George P. Papaioannou, 2020. "Cross-Border Electricity Trading in Southeast Europe Towards an Internal European Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Jha, Amit Prakash & Mahajan, Aarushi & Singh, Sanjay Kumar & Kumar, Piyush, 2022. "Renewable energy proliferation for sustainable development: Role of cross-border electricity trade," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 1189-1199.
    3. Zorana Božić & Dušan Dobromirov & Jovana Arsić & Mladen Radišić & Beata Ślusarczyk, 2020. "Power Exchange Prices: Comparison of Volatility in European Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    4. Štefan Bojnec & Alan Križaj, 2021. "Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.

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