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Damage Probability Assessment of Transmission Line-Tower System Under Typhoon Disaster, Based on Model-Driven and Data-Driven Views

Author

Listed:
  • Hui Hou

    (School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Hao Geng

    (School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Yong Huang

    (Electric Power Research Institute, Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510080, China)

  • Hao Wu

    (Electric Power Research Institute, Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510080, China)

  • Xixiu Wu

    (School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Shiwen Yu

    (School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

Abstract

Under the typhoon disaster, the power grid often has serious accidents caused by falling power towers and breaking lines. It is of great significance to analyze and predict the damage probability of a transmission line-tower system for disaster prevention and reduction. However, some problems existing in current models, such as complicated calculation, few factors, and so on, affect the accuracy of the prediction. Therefore, a damage probability assessment method of a transmission line-tower system under a typhoon disaster is proposed. Firstly, considering the actual wind load and the design wind load, physical models for calculating the damage probability of the transmission line and power tower are established, respectively based on model-driven thought. Then, the damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is obtained, combining the transmission line and power tower damage probability. Secondly, in order to improve prediction accuracy, this paper analyzes the historical sample data containing multiple influencing factors, such as geographic information, meteorological information, and power grid information, and then obtains the correction coefficient based on data-driven thought. Thirdly, the comprehensive damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is calculated considering the results of model-driven and data-driven thought. Ultimately, the proposed method is verified to be effective, taking typhoon ‘Mangkhut’ in 2018 as a case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Hou & Hao Geng & Yong Huang & Hao Wu & Xixiu Wu & Shiwen Yu, 2019. "Damage Probability Assessment of Transmission Line-Tower System Under Typhoon Disaster, Based on Model-Driven and Data-Driven Views," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:8:p:1447-:d:223100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2011. "Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations in the Event of Hurricanes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1897-1906, December.
    2. Hui Hou & Shiwen Yu & Hongbin Wang & Yong Huang & Hao Wu & Yan Xu & Xianqiang Li & Hao Geng, 2019. "Risk Assessment and Its Visualization of Power Tower under Typhoon Disaster Based on Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Guikema, S.D. & Quiring, S.M., 2012. "Hybrid data mining-regression for infrastructure risk assessment based on zero-inflated data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 178-182.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xinsheng Dong & Guanru Wen & Mingguan Zhao & Yang Yang & Meng Li & Long Zhao, 2023. "Study of the Prevention Method of ±800 kV Transmission Tower Foundation Deviation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Minhui Qian & Ning Chen & Yuge Chen & Changming Chen & Weiqiang Qiu & Dawei Zhao & Zhenzhi Lin, 2021. "Optimal Coordinated Dispatching Strategy of Multi-Sources Power System with Wind, Hydro and Thermal Power Based on CVaR in Typhoon Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-35, June.
    3. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Cerrai, Diego & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Wanik, David & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2022. "A Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Model for Power Distribution System Infrastructure Hardening and Outage Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

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