IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i19p3675-d270787.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research and Application of Hybrid Wind-Energy Forecasting Models Based on Cuckoo Search Optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Ru Hou

    (School of Mathematics & Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Yi Yang

    (School of Information Science and Engineering, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Qingcong Yuan

    (Department of Statistics, Miami University, 304 B Upham Hall, Oxford, OH 45056, USA)

  • Yanhua Chen

    (School of Information Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450000, China)

Abstract

Wind energy is crucial renewable and sustainable resource, which plays a major role in the energy mix in many countries around the world. Accurately forecasting the wind energy is not only important but also challenging in order to schedule the wind power generation and to ensure the security of wind-power integration. In this paper, four kinds of hybrid models based on cyclic exponential adjustment, adaptive coefficient methods and the cuckoo search algorithm are proposed to forecast the wind speed on large-scale wind farms in China. To verify the developed hybrid models’ effectiveness, wind-speed data from four sites of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region located in northwest China are collected and analyzed. Multiple criteria are used to quantitatively evaluate the forecasting results. Simulation results indicate that (1) the proposed four hybrid models achieve desirable forecasting accuracy and outperform traditional back-propagating neural network, autoregressive integrated moving average as well as single adaptive coefficient methods, and (2) the parameters of hybrid models optimized by artificial intelligence contribute to higher forecasting accuracy compared with predetermined parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Ru Hou & Yi Yang & Qingcong Yuan & Yanhua Chen, 2019. "Research and Application of Hybrid Wind-Energy Forecasting Models Based on Cuckoo Search Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:19:p:3675-:d:270787
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/19/3675/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/19/3675/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    2. Cadenas, E. & Jaramillo, O.A. & Rivera, W., 2010. "Analysis and forecasting of wind velocity in chetumal, quintana roo, using the single exponential smoothing method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 925-930.
    3. Zhang, Wenyu & Wu, Jie & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Shen, Lin, 2012. "Performance analysis of four modified approaches for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 324-333.
    4. Qinkai Han & Hao Wu & Tao Hu & Fulei Chu, 2018. "Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Signal Decomposing Algorithm and Hybrid Linear/Nonlinear Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.
    5. Yuansheng Huang & Lei Yang & Shijian Liu & Guangli Wang, 2019. "Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting Based On Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Long Short Term Memory Network and Error Correction Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Guowei, 2013. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied to wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 185-194.
    7. Sizhou Sun & Lisheng Wei & Jie Xu & Zhenni Jin, 2019. "A New Wind Speed Forecasting Modeling Strategy Using Two-Stage Decomposition, Feature Selection and DAWNN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Zhao, Yongning & Ye, Lin & Li, Zhi & Song, Xuri & Lang, Yansheng & Su, Jian, 2016. "A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 793-803.
    9. Li, Yanfei & Shi, Huipeng & Han, Fengze & Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui, 2019. "Smart wind speed forecasting approach using various boosting algorithms, big multi-step forecasting strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 540-553.
    10. Chitsazan, Mohammad Amin & Sami Fadali, M. & Trzynadlowski, Andrzej M., 2019. "Wind speed and wind direction forecasting using echo state network with nonlinear functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 879-889.
    11. Chen, Kuilin & Yu, Jie, 2014. "Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 690-705.
    12. Andrzej Tomczewski & Leszek Kasprzyk & Zbigniew Nadolny, 2019. "Reduction of Power Production Costs in a Wind Power Plant–Flywheel Energy Storage System Arrangement," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-24, May.
    13. Zhu, Suling & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jujie, 2011. "A seasonal hybrid procedure for electricity demand forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3807-3815.
    14. Cassola, Federico & Burlando, Massimiliano, 2012. "Wind speed and wind energy forecast through Kalman filtering of Numerical Weather Prediction model output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 154-166.
    15. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    16. Wang, Shouxiang & Zhang, Na & Wu, Lei & Wang, Yamin, 2016. "Wind speed forecasting based on the hybrid ensemble empirical mode decomposition and GA-BP neural network method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 629-636.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yongliang Liang & Zhiqi Li & Yuchuan Li & Shuwen Leng & Hongmei Cao & Kejun Li, 2023. "Bilevel Optimal Economic Dispatch of CNG Main Station Considering Demand Response," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Hua Li & Zhen Wang & Binbin Shan & Lingling Li, 2022. "Research on Multi-Step Prediction of Short-Term Wind Power Based on Combination Model and Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Ivan Lorencin & Nikola Anđelić & Vedran Mrzljak & Zlatan Car, 2019. "Genetic Algorithm Approach to Design of Multi-Layer Perceptron for Combined Cycle Power Plant Electrical Power Output Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-26, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shang, Zhihao & He, Zhaoshuang & Chen, Yao & Chen, Yanhua & Xu, MingLiang, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting system based on multivariate time series and multi-objective optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    2. Wang, Jianzhou & Xiong, Shenghua, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model based on outlier detection and fuzzy time series – A case study on Hainan wind farm of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 526-541.
    3. Erasmo Cadenas & Wilfrido Rivera & Rafael Campos-Amezcua & Christopher Heard, 2016. "Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Zhang, Wenyu & Zhang, Lifang & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "Hybrid system based on a multi-objective optimization and kernel approximation for multi-scale wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    6. Pan, Xiaoxin & Wang, Long & Wang, Zhongju & Huang, Chao, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting based on spatial-temporal graph transformer networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    7. Hu, Jianming & Heng, Jiani & Wen, Jiemei & Zhao, Weigang, 2020. "Deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting with de-noising-reconstruction strategy and quantile regression based algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1208-1226.
    8. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    9. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Tang, Yong & Zhao, Yongning & Zhong, Wuzhi & Qu, Ying & Zhai, Bingxu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term combined prediction approach based on kernel function switch mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 842-866.
    10. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Yanling & Xiao, Xia & Wang, Jianzhou & Chi, Dezhong & Guo, Zhenhai, 2017. "Multi-step wind speed and power forecasts based on a WRF simulation and an optimized association method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 183-202.
    11. Jie Liu & Quan Shi & Ruilian Han & Juan Yang, 2021. "A Hybrid GA–PSO–CNN Model for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-22, October.
    12. Li, Yang & Wang, Ruinong & Li, Yuanzheng & Zhang, Meng & Long, Chao, 2023. "Wind power forecasting considering data privacy protection: A federated deep reinforcement learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    13. Gao, Yuyang & Wang, Jianzhou & Yang, Hufang, 2022. "A multi-component hybrid system based on predictability recognition and modified multi-objective optimization for ultra-short-term onshore wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 384-401.
    14. Li, Wenzhe & Jia, Xiaodong & Li, Xiang & Wang, Yinglu & Lee, Jay, 2021. "A Markov model for short term wind speed prediction by integrating the wind acceleration information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 242-253.
    15. Parri, Srihari & Teeparthi, Kiran & Kosana, Vishalteja, 2023. "A hybrid VMD based contextual feature representation approach for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    16. Chinmoy, Lakshmi & Iniyan, S. & Goic, Ranko, 2019. "Modeling wind power investments, policies and social benefits for deregulated electricity market – A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 364-377.
    17. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    18. Xu, Weifeng & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Zhou, Yong & Xia, Qian & Gong, Yu & Liu, Yini, 2021. "Multi-step wind speed prediction by combining a WRF simulation and an error correction strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 772-782.
    19. Chengcheng Gu & Hua Li, 2022. "Review on Deep Learning Research and Applications in Wind and Wave Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Huang, Kun & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:19:p:3675-:d:270787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.