IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i23p4520-d291657.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of Data-Driven Techniques for Nowcasting Applied to an Industrial-Scale Photovoltaic Plant

Author

Listed:
  • Simone Sala

    (Eni S.p.A., via Felice Maritano 26, San Donato Milanese, 20097 Milano, Italy)

  • Alfonso Amendola

    (Eni S.p.A., via Felice Maritano 26, San Donato Milanese, 20097 Milano, Italy)

  • Sonia Leva

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Marco Mussetta

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Alessandro Niccolai

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Emanuele Ogliari

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

The inherently non-dispatchable nature of renewable sources, such as solar photovoltaic, is regarded as one of the main challenges hindering their massive integration in existing electric grids. Accurate forecasting of the power output of the solar plant might therefore play a key role towards this goal. In this paper, we compare several machine learning and deep learning algorithms for intra-hour forecasting of the output power of a 1 MW photovoltaic plant, using meteorological data acquired in the field. With the best performing algorithms, our data-driven workflow provided prediction performance that compares well with the present state of the art and could be applied in an industrial setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Sala & Alfonso Amendola & Sonia Leva & Marco Mussetta & Alessandro Niccolai & Emanuele Ogliari, 2019. "Comparison of Data-Driven Techniques for Nowcasting Applied to an Industrial-Scale Photovoltaic Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:23:p:4520-:d:291657
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/23/4520/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/23/4520/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Munir Husein & Il-Yop Chung, 2019. "Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Microgrids Using a Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M. & David, Mathieu & Lauret, Philippe, 2018. "Assessment of machine learning techniques for deterministic and probabilistic intra-hour solar forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 191-203.
    3. Wei Bao & Jun Yue & Yulei Rao, 2017. "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    5. Chu, Yinghao & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2017. "Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 526-536.
    6. Ogliari, Emanuele & Dolara, Alberto & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Leva, Sonia, 2017. "Physical and hybrid methods comparison for the day ahead PV output power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 11-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nikola Mišnić & Bojan Pejović & Jelena Jovović & Sunčica Rogić & Vladimir Đurišić, 2022. "The Economic Viability of PV Power Plant Based on a Neural Network Model of Electricity Prices Forecast: A Case of a Developing Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Robert Jane & Gordon Parker & Gail Vaucher & Morris Berman, 2020. "Characterizing Meteorological Forecast Impact on Microgrid Optimization Performance and Design," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, January.
    3. du Plessis, A.A. & Strauss, J.M. & Rix, A.J., 2021. "Short-term solar power forecasting: Investigating the ability of deep learning models to capture low-level utility-scale Photovoltaic system behaviour," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    4. Emanuele Ogliari & Alfredo Nespoli & Marco Mussetta & Silvia Pretto & Andrea Zimbardo & Nicholas Bonfanti & Manuele Aufiero, 2020. "A Hybrid Method for the Run-Of-The-River Hydroelectric Power Plant Energy Forecast: HYPE Hydrological Model and Neural Network," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-19, October.
    5. Richter, Lucas & Lehna, Malte & Marchand, Sophie & Scholz, Christoph & Dreher, Alexander & Klaiber, Stefan & Lenk, Steve, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence for Electricity Supply Chain automation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    6. Florian Ziel, 2020. "Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anagnostos, D. & Schmidt, T. & Cavadias, S. & Soudris, D. & Poortmans, J. & Catthoor, F., 2019. "A method for detailed, short-term energy yield forecasting of photovoltaic installations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 122-129.
    2. Alonso-Suárez, R. & David, M. & Branco, V. & Lauret, P., 2020. "Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 554-573.
    3. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Zheng, Lingwei & Liu, Zhaokun & Shen, Junnan & Wu, Chenxi, 2018. "Very short-term maximum Lyapunov exponent forecasting tool for distributed photovoltaic output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 1128-1139.
    5. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2022. "Boosting solar radiation predictions with global climate models, observational predictors and hybrid deep-machine learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    6. Rodríguez, Fermín & Galarza, Ainhoa & Vasquez, Juan C. & Guerrero, Josep M., 2022. "Using deep learning and meteorological parameters to forecast the photovoltaic generators intra-hour output power interval for smart grid control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    7. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    8. Chu, Yinghao & Wang, Yiling & Yang, Dazhi & Chen, Shanlin & Li, Mengying, 2024. "A review of distributed solar forecasting with remote sensing and deep learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. Chu, Yinghao & Yang, Dazhi & Yu, Hanxin & Zhao, Xin & Li, Mengying, 2024. "Can end-to-end data-driven models outperform traditional semi-physical models in separating 1-min irradiance?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    10. Erdener, Burcin Cakir & Feng, Cong & Doubleday, Kate & Florita, Anthony & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "A review of behind-the-meter solar forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. Guilherme Fonseca Bassous & Rodrigo Flora Calili & Carlos Hall Barbosa, 2021. "Development of a Low-Cost Data Acquisition System for Very Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-28, September.
    12. Nie, Yuhao & Li, Xiatong & Paletta, Quentin & Aragon, Max & Scott, Andea & Brandt, Adam, 2024. "Open-source sky image datasets for solar forecasting with deep learning: A comprehensive survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    13. Arenas-López, J. Pablo & Badaoui, Mohamed, 2020. "The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for estimating wind power under a memoryless transformation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. Andrea Bucci, 2020. "Realized Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 502-531.
    15. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Jaydip Sen & Sidra Mehtab & Abhishek Dutta & Saikat Mondal, 2022. "Precise Stock Price Prediction for Optimized Portfolio Design Using an LSTM Model," Papers 2203.01326, arXiv.org.
    17. Mohsen Beigi & Hossein Beigi Harchegani & Mehdi Torki & Mohammad Kaveh & Mariusz Szymanek & Esmail Khalife & Jacek Dziwulski, 2022. "Forecasting of Power Output of a PVPS Based on Meteorological Data Using RNN Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, March.
    18. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    19. Jaydip Sen & Sidra Mehtab, 2021. "Design and Analysis of Robust Deep Learning Models for Stock Price Prediction," Papers 2106.09664, arXiv.org.
    20. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:23:p:4520-:d:291657. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.