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Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems

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  • Elsinga, Boudewijn
  • van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M.

Abstract

Solar forecasting is a necessary component of economical realization of high penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper presents a short term, intra-hour solar forecasting method. This “peer-to-peer” (P2P) forecasting method is based on the cross-correlation time lag between clear-sky index time series of pairs of PV-systems that are influenced by the (assumed) same cloud sequentially, with the feature that the forecast horizon (FH) can be set at a fixed value. The P2P forecasting algorithm was evaluated for 11 central PV-systems (out of 202) over a half year period from the 1st of March through the 31st of August 2015 using the forecast skill (FS) metric. Positive FS means improvement over reference clear-sky index persistence forecasting. The P2P forecasting method was evaluated over a subset of days with either high, all or low irradiance variability. The average forecast skill (avgFS) concerning forecast horizons between 5 and 8min was 5.99%, −1.61% and −16.0% over these periods respectively, indicating the superior performance of the P2P method over persistence during the highly variable days, which are most interesting from the perspective of electricity grid management.

Suggested Citation

  • Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:206:y:2017:i:c:p:1464-1483
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.115
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    4. Terrén-Serrano, G. & Martínez-Ramón, M., 2023. "Kernel learning for intra-hour solar forecasting with infrared sky images and cloud dynamic feature extraction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
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    8. Jamal, Taskin & Carter, Craig & Schmidt, Thomas & Shafiullah, G.M. & Calais, Martina & Urmee, Tania, 2019. "An energy flow simulation tool for incorporating short-term PV forecasting in a diesel-PV-battery off-grid power supply system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    9. Rodríguez-Benítez, Francisco J. & López-Cuesta, Miguel & Arbizu-Barrena, Clara & Fernández-León, María M. & Pamos-Ureña, Miguel Á. & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquín & Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J. & Pozo-Váz, 2021. "Assessment of new solar radiation nowcasting methods based on sky-camera and satellite imagery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
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    12. Dongkyu Lee & Jae-Weon Jeong & Guebin Choi, 2021. "Short Term Prediction of PV Power Output Generation Using Hierarchical Probabilistic Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, May.
    13. Li, Qian & Wu, Zhou & Xia, Xiaohua, 2018. "Estimate and characterize PV power at demand-side hybrid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 66-77.
    14. Yang, Dazhi & Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2022. "Sub-minute probabilistic solar forecasting for real-time stochastic simulations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    15. Litjens, G.B.M.A. & Worrell, E. & van Sark, W.G.J.H.M., 2018. "Assessment of forecasting methods on performance of photovoltaic-battery systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 358-373.
    16. AlSkaif, Tarek & Dev, Soumyabrata & Visser, Lennard & Hossari, Murhaf & van Sark, Wilfried, 2020. "A systematic analysis of meteorological variables for PV output power estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 12-22.
    17. Rodríguez, Fermín & Martín, Fernando & Fontán, Luis & Galarza, Ainhoa, 2021. "Ensemble of machine learning and spatiotemporal parameters to forecast very short-term solar irradiation to compute photovoltaic generators’ output power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    18. Anagnostos, D. & Schmidt, T. & Cavadias, S. & Soudris, D. & Poortmans, J. & Catthoor, F., 2019. "A method for detailed, short-term energy yield forecasting of photovoltaic installations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 122-129.
    19. Erdener, Burcin Cakir & Feng, Cong & Doubleday, Kate & Florita, Anthony & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "A review of behind-the-meter solar forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    20. Rodríguez, Fermín & Galarza, Ainhoa & Vasquez, Juan C. & Guerrero, Josep M., 2022. "Using deep learning and meteorological parameters to forecast the photovoltaic generators intra-hour output power interval for smart grid control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    21. Yang, Dazhi & Gueymard, Christian A., 2019. "Producing high-quality solar resource maps by integrating high- and low-accuracy measurements using Gaussian processes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    22. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Fang, Lurui & Yan, Ke, 2022. "Towards the applicability of solar nowcasting: A practice on predictive PV power ramp-rate control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 147-166.
    23. Guilherme Fonseca Bassous & Rodrigo Flora Calili & Carlos Hall Barbosa, 2021. "Development of a Low-Cost Data Acquisition System for Very Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-28, September.
    24. Meng, B. & Loonen, R.C.G.M. & Hensen, J.L.M., 2022. "Performance variability and implications for yield prediction of rooftop PV systems – Analysis of 246 identical systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).

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