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Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting Approach via Instance-Based Transfer Learning Embedded Gradient Boosting Decision Trees

Author

Listed:
  • Long Cai

    (School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Jie Gu

    (School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Jinghuan Ma

    (School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Zhijian Jin

    (School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

Abstract

With the high wind penetration in the power system, accurate and reliable probabilistic wind power forecasting has become even more significant for the reliability of the power system. In this paper, an instance-based transfer learning method combined with gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) is proposed to develop a wind power quantile regression model. Based on the spatial cross-correlation characteristic of wind power generations in different zones, the proposed model utilizes wind power generations in correlated zones as the source problems of instance-based transfer learning. By incorporating the training data of source problems into the training process, the proposed model successfully reduces the prediction error of wind power generation in the target zone. To prevent negative transfer, this paper proposes a method that properly assigns weights to data from different source problems in the training process, whereby the weights of related source problems are increased, while those of unrelated ones are reduced. Case studies are developed based on the dataset from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014). The results confirm that the proposed model successfully improves the prediction accuracy compared to GBDT-based benchmark models, especially when the target problem has a small training set while resourceful source problems are available.

Suggested Citation

  • Long Cai & Jie Gu & Jinghuan Ma & Zhijian Jin, 2019. "Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting Approach via Instance-Based Transfer Learning Embedded Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:159-:d:194629
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2020. "The Impact of Imperfect Weather Forecasts on Wind Power Forecasting Performance: Evidence from Two Wind Farms in Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Obst, David & Ghattas, Badih & Claudel, Sandra & Cugliari, Jairo & Goude, Yannig & Oppenheim, Georges, 2022. "Improved linear regression prediction by transfer learning," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Marcin Blachnik & Sławomir Walkowiak & Adam Kula, 2023. "Large Scale, Mid Term Wind Farms Power Generation Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Rami Al-Hajj & Ali Assi & Bilel Neji & Raymond Ghandour & Zaher Al Barakeh, 2023. "Transfer Learning for Renewable Energy Systems: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-28, June.
    6. Liu, Yanli & Wang, Junyi, 2022. "Transfer learning based multi-layer extreme learning machine for probabilistic wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    7. Lv, Jiaqing & Zheng, Xiaodong & Pawlak, Mirosław & Mo, Weike & Miśkowicz, Marek, 2021. "Very short-term probabilistic wind power prediction using sparse machine learning and nonparametric density estimation algorithms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 181-192.
    8. Dong, Xiaochong & Sun, Yingyun & Dong, Lei & Li, Jian & Li, Yan & Di, Lei, 2023. "Transferable wind power probabilistic forecasting based on multi-domain adversarial networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    9. Honghai Niu & Yu Yang & Lingchao Zeng & Yiguo Li, 2021. "ELM-QR-Based Nonparametric Probabilistic Prediction Method for Wind Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Dalton, Amaris & Bekker, Bernard, 2022. "Exogenous atmospheric variables as wind speed predictors in machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    11. Li, Yanting & Wu, Zhenyu & Su, Yan, 2023. "Adaptive short-term wind power forecasting with concept drifts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).

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