IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i17p3296-d261303.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Price–Quantity Uncertainties and Risk Aversion on Energy Retailer’s Pricing and Hedging Behaviors

Author

Listed:
  • Haitao Xiang

    (Shenzhen Environmental Science and New Energy Technology Engineering Laboratory, Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Ying Kong

    (Shenzhen Environmental Science and New Energy Technology Engineering Laboratory, Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
    Economics department, York University, Toronto, ON YO10 5DD, Canada)

  • Wai Kin Victor Chan

    (Shenzhen Environmental Science and New Energy Technology Engineering Laboratory, Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Sum Wai Chiang

    (Shenzhen Environmental Science and New Energy Technology Engineering Laboratory, Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China)

Abstract

The joint uncertainties of wholesale price and end-user demand quantity often poses huge pricing challenges to energy retailers. However, the literature lacks analysis of such uncertainties’ impacts on retailer pricing behaviors and possible hedging behaviors. To study these impacts, this paper proposes four models: a risk-averse or a risk-neutral retailer deciding retail price with or without forward contract. We present closed-form solutions for these four models on optimal retail price, as well as optimal forward position (if allowed). We propose a novel approach of volatility decomposition to describe the relationship between behaviors and different volatility sources. Comparative statics gives detailed analysis of the pricing and hedging behaviors in both uncertainties, as well as their correlation. We obtain profit distributions using Monte Carlo simulations in the context of the California Electricity Market. Results show that the price and quantity uncertainties and their correlation create significant differences in the retailer’s behaviors, and the determinants of these differences are different. In addition, forward contract increases expected profit and decreases profit volatility for risk-averse retailers simultaneously. These results could serve as a benchmark for analyses of deregulated, imperfect energy markets coupled with contingent financial markets under both price and quantity uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Haitao Xiang & Ying Kong & Wai Kin Victor Chan & Sum Wai Chiang, 2019. "Impact of Price–Quantity Uncertainties and Risk Aversion on Energy Retailer’s Pricing and Hedging Behaviors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-20, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:17:p:3296-:d:261303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/17/3296/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/17/3296/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2006. "Retail electricity competition," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 799-815, December.
    2. Roncoroni, Andrea & Id Brik, Rachid, 2017. "Hedging size risk: Theory and application to the US gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 415-437.
    3. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    4. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald & Schlichter, Felix, 2009. "Electricity portfolio management: Optimal peak/off-peak allocations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 169-174, January.
    5. Alberini, Anna & Gans, Will & Velez-Lopez, Daniel, 2011. "Residential Consumption of Gas and Electricity in the U.S.: The Role of Prices and Income," Sustainable Development Papers 99637, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Alberini, Anna & Gans, Will & Velez-Lopez, Daniel, 2011. "Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the U.S.: The role of prices and income," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 870-881, September.
    7. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Vaid, Devina, 2016. "Lower electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions due to rooftop solar: empirical results for Massachusetts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 345-352.
    8. Woo, C.K. & Horowitz, I. & Moore, J. & Pacheco, A., 2011. "The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3939-3944, July.
    9. Gregory W. Brown & Klaus Bjerre Toft, 2002. "How Firms Should Hedge," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1283-1324.
    10. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    11. Vipul Agrawal & Sridhar Seshadri, 2000. "Impact of Uncertainty and Risk Aversion on Price and Order Quantity in the Newsvendor Problem," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 2(4), pages 410-423, July.
    12. Paul Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2006. "Retail electricity competition," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 799-815, December.
    13. Nicholas C. Petruzzi & Maqbool Dada, 1999. "Pricing and the Newsvendor Problem: A Review with Extensions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 183-194, April.
    14. Bushnell, James, 2004. "California's electricity crisis: a market apart?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1045-1052, June.
    15. Tishler, Asher & Milstein, Irena & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2008. "Capacity commitment and price volatility in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1625-1647, July.
    16. Deng, S.J. & Oren, S.S., 2006. "Electricity derivatives and risk management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 940-953.
    17. Oliveira, Fernando S. & Ruiz, Carlos & Conejo, Antonio J., 2013. "Contract design and supply chain coordination in the electricity industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 527-537.
    18. Yumi Oum & Shmuel Oren & Shijie Deng, 2006. "Hedging quantity risks with standard power options in a competitive wholesale electricity market," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(7), pages 697-712, October.
    19. Xu, Minghui & Chen, Youhua (Frank) & Xu, Xiaolin, 2010. "The effect of demand uncertainty in a price-setting newsvendor model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 946-957, December.
    20. Xu, Minghui & Lu, Ye, 2013. "The effect of supply uncertainty in price-setting newsvendor models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 423-433.
    21. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Serel, Doğan A., 2017. "A single-period stocking and pricing problem involving stochastic emergency supply," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 180-195.
    2. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    3. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    4. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    5. Rubin, Ofir David, 2010. "Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002361, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    7. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
    8. Zarnikau, J. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K., 2020. "Determinants of the wholesale prices of energy and ancillary services in the U.S. Midcontinent electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Mitra, Subrata, 2018. "Newsvendor problem with clearance pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 193-202.
    10. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    11. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
    12. Roncoroni, Andrea & Id Brik, Rachid, 2017. "Hedging size risk: Theory and application to the US gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 415-437.
    13. Holmberg, Pär & Willems, Bert, 2015. "Relaxing competition through speculation: Committing to a negative supply slope," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PA), pages 236-266.
    14. Rubio-Herrero, Javier & Baykal-Gürsoy, Melike, 2020. "Mean-variance analysis of the newsvendor problem with price-dependent, isoelastic demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 942-953.
    15. Johannes Kaufmann & Philipp Artur Kienscherf & Wolfgang Ketter, 2020. "Modeling and Managing Joint Price and Volumetric Risk for Volatile Electricity Portfolios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    16. Mandal, Prasenjit & Kaul, Rupali & Jain, Tarun, 2018. "Stocking and pricing decisions under endogenous demand and reference point effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 181-199.
    17. Xu, Minghui & Lu, Ye, 2013. "The effect of supply uncertainty in price-setting newsvendor models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 423-433.
    18. Wensi Zhang & Jinlin Li & Ran Zhang & Yahong Chen, 2017. "Impact of Emergency Order in Price-Dependent Newsvendor Problems," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(02), pages 1-20, April.
    19. Li, Yun & Yuan, Jiahang & Chen, Siyuan & Wu, Yanzi, 2024. "Optimal wind power capacity decision consider commitment contracts under uncertain power supply and electricity demand in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    20. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in electricity wholesale spot markets: empirical evidence from Germany," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-11, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:17:p:3296-:d:261303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.