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Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Thermal Comfort in A Building Category: The Case of Linear-type Social Housing Stock in Southern Spain

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  • Rocío Escandón

    (Instituto Universitario de Arquitectura y Ciencias de la Construcción, Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura, Universidad de Sevilla, Av. Reina Mercedes 2, 41012 Seville, Spain)

  • Rafael Suárez

    (Instituto Universitario de Arquitectura y Ciencias de la Construcción, Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura, Universidad de Sevilla, Av. Reina Mercedes 2, 41012 Seville, Spain)

  • Juan José Sendra

    (Instituto Universitario de Arquitectura y Ciencias de la Construcción, Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura, Universidad de Sevilla, Av. Reina Mercedes 2, 41012 Seville, Spain)

  • Fabrizio Ascione

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Piazzale Tecchio 80, 80125 Napoli, Italy)

  • Nicola Bianco

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Piazzale Tecchio 80, 80125 Napoli, Italy)

  • Gerardo Maria Mauro

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Piazzale Tecchio 80, 80125 Napoli, Italy)

Abstract

The Climate Change scenario projected by the IPCC for the year 2050 predicts noticeable increases in temperature. In severe summer climates, such as the Mediterranean area, this would have very negative effects on thermal comfort in the existing housing stock, given the current high percentage of dwellings which are obsolete in energy terms and house a population at serious risk of energy poverty. The main aim of this paper is to generate a predictive model in order to assess the impact of this future climate scenario on thermal comfort conditions in an entire building category. To do so, calibrated models representing linear-type social multi-family buildings, dating from the post-war period and located in southern Spain, will be simulated extensively using transient energy analyses performed by EnergyPlus. In addition, a sensitivity analysis will be performed to identify the most influential parameters on thermal discomfort. The main results predict a generalized deterioration in indoor thermal comfort conditions due to global warming, increasing the average percentage of discomfort hours during the summer by more than 35%. This characterization of the future thermal behaviour of the residential stock in southern Spain could be a trustworthy tool for decision-making in energy retrofitting projects which are so badly needed. To do so, further work is required on some limitations of this model so that different user profiles and typologies can be represented in detail and an economic assessment can be included.

Suggested Citation

  • Rocío Escandón & Rafael Suárez & Juan José Sendra & Fabrizio Ascione & Nicola Bianco & Gerardo Maria Mauro, 2019. "Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Thermal Comfort in A Building Category: The Case of Linear-type Social Housing Stock in Southern Spain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:12:p:2238-:d:239053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Hamed Yassaghi & Simi Hoque, 2021. "Impact Assessment in the Process of Propagating Climate Change Uncertainties into Building Energy Use," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Francesco Fiorito & Giandomenico Vurro & Francesco Carlucci & Ludovica Maria Campagna & Mariella De Fino & Salvatore Carlucci & Fabio Fatiguso, 2022. "Adaptation of Users to Future Climate Conditions in Naturally Ventilated Historic Buildings: Effects on Indoor Comfort," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-21, July.
    5. Lucía Pereira-Ruchansky & Alexis Pérez-Fargallo, 2020. "Integrated Analysis of Energy Saving and Thermal Comfort of Retrofits in Social Housing under Climate Change Influence in Uruguay," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, June.
    6. Kashif Irshad & Salem Algarni & Mohammad Tauheed Ahmad & Sayed Ameenuddin Irfan & Khairul Habib & Mostafa A.H. Abdelmohimen & Md. Hasan Zahir & Gulam Mohammed Sayeed Ahmed, 2019. "Microclimate Thermal Management Using Thermoelectric Air-Cooling Duct System Operated at Five Incremental Powers and its Effect on Sleep Adaptation of the Occupants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    7. Krzysztof Grygierek & Izabela Sarna, 2020. "Impact of Passive Cooling on Thermal Comfort in a Single-Family Building for Current and Future Climate Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-17, October.
    8. S. Soutullo & E. Giancola & M. J. Jiménez & J. A. Ferrer & M. N. Sánchez, 2020. "How Climate Trends Impact on the Thermal Performance of a Typical Residential Building in Madrid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Vicente Flores-Alés & Alexis Pérez-Fargallo & Jesús A. Pulido Arcas & Carlos Rubio-Bellido, 2020. "Effect on the Thermal Properties of Mortar Blocks by Using Recycled Glass and Its Application for Social Dwellings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Lingjun Hao & Daniel Herrera-Avellanosa & Claudio Del Pero & Alexandra Troi, 2020. "What Are the Implications of Climate Change for Retrofitted Historic Buildings? A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Sara Brito-Coimbra & Daniel Aelenei & Maria Gloria Gomes & Antonio Moret Rodrigues, 2021. "Building Façade Retrofit with Solar Passive Technologies: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Ahmet Bircan Atmaca & Gülay Zorer Gedik & Andreas Wagner, 2021. "Determination of Optimum Envelope of Religious Buildings in Terms of Thermal Comfort and Energy Consumption: Mosque Cases," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-17, October.

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