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District Heating Load Prediction Algorithm Based on Feature Fusion LSTM Model

Author

Listed:
  • Guixiang Xue

    (School of Artificial Intelligence, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China)

  • Yu Pan

    (School of Artificial Intelligence, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China)

  • Tao Lin

    (School of Artificial Intelligence, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China)

  • Jiancai Song

    (School of Information and Engineering, Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin 300134, China)

  • Chengying Qi

    (School of Energy and Environment Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China)

  • Zhipan Wang

    (School of International, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China)

Abstract

The smart district heating system (SDHS) is an important element of the construction of smart cities in Northern China; it plays a significant role in meeting heating requirements and green energy saving in winter. Various Internet of Things (IoT) sensors and wireless transmission technologies are applied to monitor data in real-time and to form a historical database. The accurate prediction of heating loads based on massive historical datasets is the necessary condition and key basis for formulating an optimal heating control strategy in the SDHS, which contributes to the reduction in the consumption of energy and the improvement in the energy dispatching efficiency and accuracy. In order to achieve the high prediction accuracy of SDHS and to improve the representation ability of multi-time-scale features, a novel short-term heating load prediction algorithm based on a feature fusion long short-term memory (LSTM) model (FFLSTM) is proposed. Three characteristics, namely proximity, periodicity, and trend, are found after analyzing the heating load data from the aspect of the hourly time dimension. In order to comprehensively utilize the data’s intrinsic characteristics, three LSTM models are employed to make separate predictions, and, then, the prediction results based on internal features and other external features at the corresponding moments are imported into the high-level LSTM model for fusion processing, which brings a more accurate prediction result of the heating load. Detailed comparisons between the proposed FFLSTM algorithm and the-state-of-art algorithms are conducted in this paper. The experimental results show that the proposed FFLSTM algorithm outperforms others and can obtain a higher prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the impact of selecting different parameters of the FFLSTM model is also studied thoroughly.

Suggested Citation

  • Guixiang Xue & Yu Pan & Tao Lin & Jiancai Song & Chengying Qi & Zhipan Wang, 2019. "District Heating Load Prediction Algorithm Based on Feature Fusion LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:11:p:2122-:d:236771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Zhang, Yunfei & Zhou, Zhihua & Liu, Junwei & Yuan, Jianjuan, 2022. "Data augmentation for improving heating load prediction of heating substation based on TimeGAN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
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    5. Lange, Jelto & Kaltschmitt, Martin, 2022. "Probabilistic day-ahead forecast of available thermal storage capacities in residential households," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    6. Chendong Wang & Lihong Zheng & Jianjuan Yuan & Ke Huang & Zhihua Zhou, 2022. "Building Heat Demand Prediction Based on Reinforcement Learning for Thermal Comfort Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-20, October.

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