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Modular Predictor for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting and Feature Selection for Different Hours

Author

Listed:
  • Lin Lin

    (College of Information and Control Engineering, Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology, Jilin 132022, China)

  • Lin Xue

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132013, China)

  • Zhiqiang Hu

    (Zhejiang Electric Power Corporation Wenzhou Power Supply Company, Wenzhou 325000, China)

  • Nantian Huang

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132013, China)

Abstract

To improve the accuracy of the day-ahead load forecasting predictions of a single model, a novel modular parallel forecasting model with feature selection was proposed. First, load features were extracted from a historic load with a horizon from the previous 24 h to the previous 168 h considering the calendar feature. Second, a feature selection combined with a predictor process was carried out to select the optimal feature for building a reliable predictor with respect to each hour. The final modular model consisted of 24 predictors with a respective optimal feature subset for day-ahead load forecasting. New England and Singapore load data were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results indicated that the accuracy of the proposed modular model was higher than that of the traditional method. Furthermore, conducting a feature selection step when building a predictor improved the accuracy of load forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Lin & Lin Xue & Zhiqiang Hu & Nantian Huang, 2018. "Modular Predictor for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting and Feature Selection for Different Hours," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:7:p:1899-:d:159081
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Seon Hyeog Kim & Gyul Lee & Gu-Young Kwon & Do-In Kim & Yong-June Shin, 2018. "Deep Learning Based on Multi-Decomposition for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Mehmet Türker Takcı & Tuba Gözel, 2022. "Effects of Predictors on Power Consumption Estimation for IT Rack in a Data Center: An Experimental Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Thomas Mobius & Mira Watermeyer & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "Enhancing Energy System Models Using Better Load Forecasts," Papers 2302.11017, arXiv.org.
    4. Francisco G. Montoya & Raúl Baños & Alfredo Alcayde & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro, 2019. "Optimization Methods Applied to Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-8, June.
    5. Rafati, Amir & Joorabian, Mahmood & Mashhour, Elaheh, 2020. "An efficient hour-ahead electrical load forecasting method based on innovative features," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

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