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A novel hybrid load forecasting framework with intelligent feature engineering and optimization algorithm in smart grid

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  • Hafeez, Ghulam
  • Khan, Imran
  • Jan, Sadaqat
  • Shah, Ibrar Ali
  • Khan, Farrukh Aslam
  • Derhab, Abdelouahid

Abstract

Real-time, accurate, and stable forecasting plays a vital role in making strategic decisions in the smart grid (SG). This ensures economic savings, effective planning, and reliable and secure power system operation. However, accurate and stable forecasting is challenging due to the uncertain and intermittent electric load behavior. In this context, a rigid forecasting model with assertive stochastic and non-linear behavior capturing abilities is needed. Thus, a support vector regression (SVR) model emerged to cater the non-linear time-series predictions. However, it suffers from computational complexity and hard-to-tune appropriate parameters problem. Due to these problems, forecasting results of SVR are not as accurate as required. To solve such problems, a novel hybrid approach is developed by integrating feature engineering (FE) and modified fire-fly optimization (mFFO) algorithm with SVR, namely FE-SVR-mFFO forecasting framework. FE eliminates redundant and irrelevant features to ensure high computational efficiency. The mFFO algorithm obtains and tunes the SVR model’s appropriate parameters to effectively avoid trapping into local optimum and returns accurate forecasting results. Besides, most literature studies are focused on forecast accuracy improvement. However, the forecasting model’s effectiveness and productiveness are determined equally by its stability and convergence rate. Considering only one objective (accuracy or stability or convergence rate) is inadequate; thus, the proposed FE-SVR-mFFO forecasting framework achieves these three relatively independent objectives simultaneously. To evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed framework, real half-hourly load data of five states of Australia (New South Wales (NSW), Queensland (QLD), South Australia (SA), Tasmania (TAS), and Victoria (VIC)) are employed as a case study. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms benchmark frameworks like EMD-SVR-PSO, FS-TSFE-CBSSO, VMD-FFT-IOSVR, and DCP-SVM-WO in terms of accuracy, stability, and convergence rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafeez, Ghulam & Khan, Imran & Jan, Sadaqat & Shah, Ibrar Ali & Khan, Farrukh Aslam & Derhab, Abdelouahid, 2021. "A novel hybrid load forecasting framework with intelligent feature engineering and optimization algorithm in smart grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:299:y:2021:i:c:s030626192100605x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117178
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    9. Fanidhar Dewangan & Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz & Monalisa Biswal, 2023. "Load Forecasting Models in Smart Grid Using Smart Meter Information: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-55, January.
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    13. Hisham Alghamdi & Ghulam Hafeez & Sajjad Ali & Safeer Ullah & Muhammad Iftikhar Khan & Sadia Murawwat & Lyu-Guang Hua, 2023. "An Integrated Model of Deep Learning and Heuristic Algorithm for Load Forecasting in Smart Grid," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-22, November.
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    15. Abdellatif Soussi & Enrico Zero & Alessandro Bozzi & Roberto Sacile, 2024. "Enhancing Energy Systems and Rural Communities through a System of Systems Approach: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-43, October.
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    20. Che, Jinxing & Yuan, Fang & Zhu, Suling & Yang, Youlong, 2022. "An adaptive ensemble framework with representative subset based weight correction for short-term forecast of peak power load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
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    23. Sajawal ur Rehman Khan & Israa Adil Hayder & Muhammad Asif Habib & Mudassar Ahmad & Syed Muhammad Mohsin & Farrukh Aslam Khan & Kainat Mustafa, 2022. "Enhanced Machine-Learning Techniques for Medium-Term and Short-Term Electric-Load Forecasting in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.

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