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GEFCom2012 hierarchical load forecasting: Gradient boosting machines and Gaussian processes

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  • Lloyd, James Robert

Abstract

This report discusses methods for forecasting hourly loads of a US utility as part of the load forecasting track of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012 hosted on Kaggle. The methods described (gradient boosting machines and Gaussian processes) are generic machine learning/regression algorithms, and few domain-specific adjustments were made. Despite this, the algorithms were able to produce highly competitive predictions, which can hopefully inspire more refined techniques to compete with state-of-the-art load forecasting methodologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lloyd, James Robert, 2014. "GEFCom2012 hierarchical load forecasting: Gradient boosting machines and Gaussian processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 369-374.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:2:p:369-374
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Guangrui & Chen, Xi & Weng, Yang, 2021. "Enhance load forecastability: Optimize data sampling policy by reinforcing user behaviors," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 924-934.
    2. van der Meer, D.W. & Shepero, M. & Svensson, A. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity consumption, photovoltaic power generation and net demand of an individual building using Gaussian Processes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 195-207.
    3. Tartakovsky, Alexandre M. & Ma, Tong & Barajas-Solano, David A. & Tipireddy, Ramakrishna, 2023. "Physics-informed Gaussian process regression for states estimation and forecasting in power grids," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 967-980.
    4. Moting Su & Zongyi Zhang & Ye Zhu & Donglan Zha & Wenying Wen, 2019. "Data Driven Natural Gas Spot Price Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Luo, Jian & Hong, Tao & Fang, Shu-Cherng, 2018. "Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 89-104.
    6. Carla Sahori Seefoo Jarquin & Alessandro Gandelli & Francesco Grimaccia & Marco Mussetta, 2023. "Short-Term Probabilistic Load Forecasting in University Buildings by Means of Artificial Neural Networks," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-15, April.
    7. Hong, Tao & Wang, Pu & White, Laura, 2015. "Weather station selection for electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 286-295.
    8. Zhaorui Meng & Xianze Xu, 2019. "A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Framework with an Attention-Based Encoder–Decoder Network Based on Seasonal and Trend Adjustment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Wang, Shaomin & Wang, Shouxiang & Chen, Haiwen & Gu, Qiang, 2020. "Multi-energy load forecasting for regional integrated energy systems considering temporal dynamic and coupling characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Anand Krishnan Prakash & Susu Xu & Ram Rajagopal & Hae Young Noh, 2018. "Robust Building Energy Load Forecasting Using Physically-Based Kernel Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Moreno-Carbonell, Santiago & Sánchez-Úbeda, Eugenio F. & Muñoz, Antonio, 2020. "Rethinking weather station selection for electric load forecasting using genetic algorithms," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 695-712.
    12. Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2018. "Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1013-1031.
    13. Yang, Yandong & Li, Shufang & Li, Wenqi & Qu, Meijun, 2018. "Power load probability density forecasting using Gaussian process quantile regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-509.
    14. Salahuddin Khan, 2023. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using a New Intelligence-Based Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-12, August.
    15. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
    16. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Mehdi Ganjkhani & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Kwok-wing Chau, 2019. "Computational Intelligence on Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Methodological Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Eugenio Borghini & Cinzia Giannetti & James Flynn & Grazia Todeschini, 2021. "Data-Driven Energy Storage Scheduling to Minimise Peak Demand on Distribution Systems with PV Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-22, June.
    18. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    19. Lin Lin & Lin Xue & Zhiqiang Hu & Nantian Huang, 2018. "Modular Predictor for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting and Feature Selection for Different Hours," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-30, July.

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