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Performance Analysis for One-Step-Ahead Forecasting of Hybrid Solar and Wind Energy on Short Time Scales

Author

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  • Jing Huang

    (College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

  • John Boland

    (Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, School of Information Technology and Mathematical Sciences, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Boulevard, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, Australia)

Abstract

With ever increasing demand for electricity and the huge potential of renewable energy, an increasing number of renewable-energy sources are being used to generate electricity. However, due to the intermittency of renewable-energy generation, many researchers try to overcome the variable nature of renewable energy. A hybrid renewable-energy system is one possible way to introduce smoothing of the supply. Many hybrid renewable-energy studies focus on system optimization and management. This paper mainly researches the performance prediction accuracy of a hybrid solar and wind system. Through a mixed autoregressive and dynamical system model, we test the predictability of the hybrid system and compare it with individual solar and wind series forecasting. After error analysis, the predictability of the hybrid system shows a better performance than solar or wind for Adelaide global solar radiation and Starfish Hill wind farm data. The prediction errors were reduced by 13% to more than 30% according to various error analyses. This result indicates an advantage of the hybrid solar and wind system compared to solar and wind systems taken individually.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Huang & John Boland, 2018. "Performance Analysis for One-Step-Ahead Forecasting of Hybrid Solar and Wind Energy on Short Time Scales," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-12, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:5:p:1119-:d:144199
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    1. Reikard, Gordon & Hansen, Clifford, 2019. "Forecasting solar irradiance at short horizons: Frequency and time domain models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1270-1290.
    2. Jiří Jaromír Klemeš & Petar Sabev Varbanov & Paweł Ocłoń & Hon Huin Chin, 2019. "Towards Efficient and Clean Process Integration: Utilisation of Renewable Resources and Energy-Saving Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-32, October.
    3. Li, Qian & Loy-Benitez, Jorge & Nam, KiJeon & Hwangbo, Soonho & Rashidi, Jouan & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2019. "Sustainable and reliable design of reverse osmosis desalination with hybrid renewable energy systems through supply chain forecasting using recurrent neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 277-292.
    4. Mirosław Parol & Paweł Piotrowski & Piotr Kapler & Mariusz Piotrowski, 2021. "Forecasting of 10-Second Power Demand of Highly Variable Loads for Microgrid Operation Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-29, February.

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