IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i2p380-d130436.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Energy Measurement and Verification Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Herman Carstens

    (Centre for New Energy Systems, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Xiaohua Xia

    (Centre for New Energy Systems, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Sarma Yadavalli

    (Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

Abstract

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification results than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

Suggested Citation

  • Herman Carstens & Xiaohua Xia & Sarma Yadavalli, 2018. "Bayesian Energy Measurement and Verification Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:380-:d:130436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/380/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/380/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John P A Ioannidis, 2005. "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-1, August.
    2. Granderson, Jessica & Touzani, Samir & Custodio, Claudine & Sohn, Michael D. & Jump, David & Fernandes, Samuel, 2016. "Accuracy of automated measurement and verification (M&V) techniques for energy savings in commercial buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 296-308.
    3. Carstens, Herman & Xia, Xiaohua & Yadavalli, Sarma, 2017. "Low-cost energy meter calibration method for measurement and verification," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 563-575.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1908 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ronald L. Wasserstein & Nicole A. Lazar, 2016. "The ASA's Statement on p -Values: Context, Process, and Purpose," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(2), pages 129-133, May.
    6. Walter, Travis & Price, Phillip N. & Sohn, Michael D., 2014. "Uncertainty estimation improves energy measurement and verification procedures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 230-236.
    7. Jeff Leek & Blakeley B. McShane & Andrew Gelman & David Colquhoun & Michèle B. Nuijten & Steven N. Goodman, 2017. "Five ways to fix statistics," Nature, Nature, vol. 551(7682), pages 557-559, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Hanna, Richard & Gross, Robert, 2021. "How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Grillone, Benedetto & Danov, Stoyan & Sumper, Andreas & Cipriano, Jordi & Mor, Gerard, 2020. "A review of deterministic and data-driven methods to quantify energy efficiency savings and to predict retrofitting scenarios in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Jacques Maritz & Foster Lubbe & Louis Lagrange, 2018. "A Practical Guide to Gaussian Process Regression for Energy Measurement and Verification within the Bayesian Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-12, April.
    5. Suwon Song & Chun Gun Park, 2019. "Alternative Algorithm for Automatically Driving Best-Fit Building Energy Baseline Models Using a Data—Driven Grid Search," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Foster Lubbe & Jacques Maritz & Thomas Harms, 2020. "Evaluating the Potential of Gaussian Process Regression for Solar Radiation Forecasting: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Benedetto Grillone & Gerard Mor & Stoyan Danov & Jordi Cipriano & Florencia Lazzari & Andreas Sumper, 2021. "Baseline Energy Use Modeling and Characterization in Tertiary Buildings Using an Interpretable Bayesian Linear Regression Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-30, September.
    8. Simon Rouchier, 2022. "Bayesian Workflow and Hidden Markov Energy-Signature Model for Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    9. Fonseca, Jimeno A. & Nevat, Ido & Peters, Gareth W., 2020. "Quantifying the uncertain effects of climate change on building energy consumption across the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    10. Hou, D. & Hassan, I.G. & Wang, L., 2021. "Review on building energy model calibration by Bayesian inference," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jyotirmoy Sarkar, 2018. "Will P†Value Triumph over Abuses and Attacks?," Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 7(4), pages 66-71, July.
    2. Uwe Hassler & Marc‐Oliver Pohle, 2022. "Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 90(2), pages 397-410, August.
    3. Michaelides, Michael, 2021. "Large sample size bias in empirical finance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    4. Ke, Ming-Tsun & Yeh, Chia-Hung & Su, Cheng-Jie, 2017. "Cloud computing platform for real-time measurement and verification of energy performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 497-507.
    5. Nicolas Vallois & Dorian Jullien, 2017. "Estimating Rationality in Economics: A History of Statistical Methods in Experimental Economics," Working Papers halshs-01651070, HAL.
    6. Eszter Czibor & David Jimenez‐Gomez & John A. List, 2019. "The Dozen Things Experimental Economists Should Do (More of)," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 371-432, October.
    7. David Spiegelhalter, 2017. "Trust in numbers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 948-965, October.
    8. Robert Rieg, 2018. "Tasks, interaction and role perception of management accountants: evidence from Germany," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 183-220, August.
    9. Nicolas Vallois & Dorian Jullien, 2018. "A history of statistical methods in experimental economics," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 1455-1492, November.
    10. Stephan B. Bruns & David I. Stern, 2019. "Lag length selection and p-hacking in Granger causality testing: prevalence and performance of meta-regression models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 797-830, March.
    11. Rigdon, Edward E., 2016. "Choosing PLS path modeling as analytical method in European management research: A realist perspective," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 598-605.
    12. Carstens, Herman & Xia, Xiaohua & Yadavalli, Sarma, 2017. "Low-cost energy meter calibration method for measurement and verification," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 563-575.
    13. Alberto Abadie, 2020. "Statistical Nonsignificance in Empirical Economics," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 193-208, June.
    14. Jeremy Arkes, 2020. "Teaching Graduate (and Undergraduate) Econometrics: Some Sensible Shifts to Improve Efficiency, Effectiveness, and Usefulness," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, September.
    15. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Carstens, Herman & Xia, Xiaohua & Yadavalli, Sarma, 2018. "Measurement uncertainty in energy monitoring: Present state of the art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2791-2805.
    17. Fu, Hongxiang & Baltazar, Juan-Carlos & Claridge, David E., 2021. "Review of developments in whole-building statistical energy consumption models for commercial buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Nosek, Brian A. & Ebersole, Charles R. & DeHaven, Alexander Carl & Mellor, David Thomas, 2018. "The Preregistration Revolution," OSF Preprints 2dxu5, Center for Open Science.
    19. Bruns, Stephan B. & Asanov, Igor & Bode, Rasmus & Dunger, Melanie & Funk, Christoph & Hassan, Sherif M. & Hauschildt, Julia & Heinisch, Dominik & Kempa, Karol & König, Johannes & Lips, Johannes & Verb, 2019. "Reporting errors and biases in published empirical findings: Evidence from innovation research," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    20. Mayo, Deborah & Morey, Richard Donald, 2017. "A Poor Prognosis for the Diagnostic Screening Critique of Statistical Tests," OSF Preprints ps38b, Center for Open Science.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:380-:d:130436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.