IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v8y2020i4p102-d447987.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt-Growth Nexus in the MENA Region: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Daher Alshammary

    (Center for Sustainable and Inclusive Development Studies (SID), Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Bangi 43600, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Zulkefly Abdul Karim

    (Center for Sustainable and Inclusive Development Studies (SID), Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Bangi 43600, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Norlin Khalid

    (Center for Sustainable and Inclusive Development Studies (SID), Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Bangi 43600, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Riayati Ahmad

    (Center for Sustainable and Inclusive Development Studies (SID), Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Bangi 43600, Selangor, Malaysia)

Abstract

This study examines whether a debt-to-GDP threshold exists in the public debt and economic growth relationship for 20 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries from 1990 to 2016 using the threshold estimation technique. The empirical results reveal that there is a threshold effect in the public debt and economic growth relationship. The MENA region’s debt-to-GDP threshold value as a developing region is lower than the debt threshold computed by earlier studies for developing countries. We found that the effect of public debt on economic growth is significant and positive only below the threshold value of debt-to-GDP. More precisely, debt has a promoting influence on economic growth when the debt is less than 58% of the GDP. This finding indicates that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is contingent on the debt-to-GDP ratio. Importantly, policymakers need to be more prudent when establishing a policy regarding debt issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Daher Alshammary & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Norlin Khalid & Riayati Ahmad, 2020. "Debt-Growth Nexus in the MENA Region: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-12, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:102-:d:447987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/8/4/102/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/8/4/102/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zak, Paul J & Knack, Stephen, 2001. "Trust and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 295-321, April.
    2. Wissem Khanfir, 2019. "Threshold Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Selected North African Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 429-436, September.
    3. Carlin, Wendy & Mayer, Colin, 2003. "Finance, investment, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 191-226, July.
    4. Gilles Saint-Paul, 1992. "Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1243-1259.
    5. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    6. Alfred Greiner & Bettina Fincke, 2015. "Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-09348-2, February.
    7. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    8. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    9. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    11. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    12. Caner, Mehmet & Grennes,Thomas & Koehler-Geib, Fritzi, 2010. "Finding the tipping point -- when sovereign debt turns bad," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5391, The World Bank.
    13. Naeem Akram, 2015. "Is public debt hindering economic growth of the Philippines?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(3), pages 202-221, March.
    14. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    15. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2014. "Public debt and economic growth in India: A reassessment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 292-300.
    16. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, October.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    18. Spilioti, Stella & Vamvoukas, George, 2015. "The impact of government debt on economic growth: An empirical investigation of the Greek market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 34-40.
    19. Ali Hossein Samadi, 2006. "The Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Some MENA Countries," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 11(2), pages 129-140, spring.
    20. repec:eco:journ1:2014-02-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    22. Lof, Matthijs & Malinen, Tuomas, 2014. "Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 403-407.
    23. Adel M. EL-MAHDY & Neveen M. TORAYEH, 2009. "Debt Sustainabiliy And Economic Growth In Egypt," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    24. Deniz Baglan & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "Government debt and macroeconomic activity: a predictive analysis for advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Ibrahim Muhammad Muye & Rayyan Abdulkareem Kaita & Ahmad Fahmi Sheikh Hassan, 2017. "Debt and Economic Growth in an Oil Rich Economy: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 70-75.
    26. Bettina Fincke & Alfred Greiner, 2015. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 357-370, September.
    27. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Lau, Evan, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-113.
    28. Victor Owusu-Nantwi & Christopher Erickson, 2016. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Ghana," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 116-126, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Svetlana Demidova & Yuliya Tyurina & Anastasia Kulachinskaya & Olga Buzdalina & Igor V. Ilin & Victoriya Razletovskaia & Chulpan A. Misbakhova, 2024. "An Assessment of the Effectiveness and Scale of Tax Expenditures to Support Investments and Priority Sectors in G20 Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-26, June.
    2. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    3. Yang, Qi-Cheng & Zheng, Mingbo & Wang, Jun-Sheng & Wang, Yun-Peng, 2022. "The shocks of armed conflicts to renewable energy finance: Empirical evidence from cross-country data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Eleftherios Giovanis & Oznur Ozdamar, 2022. "The impact of climate change on budget balances and debt in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-27, June.
    5. Ghada H. Ashour & Mohamed Noureldin Sayed, 2024. "The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in Targeting Debt Sustainability in African and MENA Region Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 393-400, January.
    6. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Mimouni, Karim, 2024. "The threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in MENA countries: Do energy endowments matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 458-470.
    7. Yu, Xiuzhi & Jia, Fengshuo & Khan, Suliman & Khan, Zeeshan & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A., 2024. "Natural resources a curse or blessings for international trade? Empirical evidence from high indebted economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jos Mauricio Gil Le n & John William Rosso Murillo & Edgar Alonso Ramirez Hern ndez, 2019. "Public Debt and Stability in Economic Growth: Evidence for Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 137-147.
    2. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    3. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    4. İbrahim ÖZMEN, 2022. "New Evidence from Government Debt and Economic Growth in Core and Periphery European Union Countries : Asymmetric Panel Causality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 167-187, October.
    5. Kummer-Noormamode, Sabina, 2018. "The Relationship between Public Debt and Economic Growth: Nonlinearity and Country-Specificity," MPRA Paper 98075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yi-Bin Chiu & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2017. "On The Impact Of Public Debt On Economic Growth: Does Country Risk Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 751-766, October.
    7. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    8. Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Winnie Abdulnasir, 2016. "Public debt sustainability and economic growth in Malaysia: Threshold and causality analysis," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5306868, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    9. Attard, Juergen, 2019. "Public Debt and Economic Growth nexus: A Dynamic Panel ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 96023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Séverine MENGUY, 2019. "Does public indebtedness constrain or can it favor economic growth? A simple analytical modeling," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 1-29.
    11. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    12. Blessy Augustine & O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi, 2021. "Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship," BASE University Working Papers 11/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    13. Rubo Zhao & Yixiang Tian & Ao Lei & Francis Boadu & Ze Ren, 2019. "The Effect of Local Government Debt on Regional Economic Growth in China: A Nonlinear Relationship Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, May.
    14. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    15. Maurizio Intartaglia & Andreas Antoniades & Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2018. "Unbundled debt and economic growth in developed and developing economies: An empirical analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3345-3358, December.
    16. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Alancioğlu, Erdal & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry, 2021. "New insights on the debt-growth nexus: A combination of the interactive fixed effects and panel threshold approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 40-55.
    17. Jan Jacobs & Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2020. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1377-1394, March.
    18. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    19. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    20. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:102-:d:447987. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.