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Asymmetric Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Flows in India

Author

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  • Niloufer Sohrabji

    (Department of Economics, Simmons University, 300 Fenway, Boston, MA 02115, USA)

Abstract

This paper examines the role of exchange rate changes on India’s trade. The drivers of exports and imports (income, exchange rate including sectoral differences, and exchange rate variability) are estimated for the short and long run including a structural break. Using annual data from 1994 to 2022, the results of dynamic fixed effects estimation show that both exports and imports are income-elastic in the short and long run, but income elasticity is far stronger for exports. Moreover, exports are responsive to the real effective exchange rate in the short run but not in the long run, and the reverse is true for imports. Furthermore, exchange rates have asymmetric effects for high-volume and primary sectors for exports and imports. The combined impacts show the ineffectiveness of using currency depreciation to address trade imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Niloufer Sohrabji, 2024. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Flows in India," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-13, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:5:p:114-:d:1391318
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    2. Bernardina Algieri, 2004. "Price and Income Elasticities of Russian Exports," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 1(2), pages 175-193, December.
    3. Abule Mehare & Abdi K. Edriss, 2013. "Evaluation of the Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on the Export of Ethiopia’s Agricultural Product: A Case of Coffee," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(2), pages 171-183, May.
    4. Sidheswar Panda & Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2015. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports: Evidence from India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 305-312.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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