IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jdataj/v7y2022i8p107-d877199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mobility and Dissemination of COVID-19 in Portugal: Correlations and Estimates from Google’s Mobility Data

Author

Listed:
  • Nelson Mileu

    (Portugal and Associated Laboratory Terra, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Centre of Geographical Studies, University of Lisbon, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Nuno M. Costa

    (Portugal and Associated Laboratory Terra, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Centre of Geographical Studies, University of Lisbon, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Eduarda M. Costa

    (Portugal and Associated Laboratory Terra, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Centre of Geographical Studies, University of Lisbon, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • André Alves

    (Directorate-General for Territory, 1099-052 Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract

The spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has important links with population mobility. Social interaction is a known determinant of human-to-human transmission of infectious diseases and, in turn, population mobility as a proxy of interaction is of paramount importance to analyze COVID-19 diffusion. Using mobility data from Google’s Community Reports, this paper captures the association between changes in mobility patterns through time and the corresponding COVID-19 incidence at a multi-scalar approach applied to mainland Portugal. Results demonstrate a strong relationship between mobility data and COVID-19 incidence, suggesting that more mobility is associated with more COVID-19 cases. Methodological procedures can be summarized in a multiple linear regression with a time moving window. Model validation demonstrate good forecast accuracy, particularly when we consider the cumulative number of cases. Based on this premise, it is possible to estimate and predict future evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases using near real-time information of population mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson Mileu & Nuno M. Costa & Eduarda M. Costa & André Alves, 2022. "Mobility and Dissemination of COVID-19 in Portugal: Correlations and Estimates from Google’s Mobility Data," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jdataj:v:7:y:2022:i:8:p:107-:d:877199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5729/7/8/107/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5729/7/8/107/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grace Guan & Yotam Dery & Matan Yechezkel & Irad Ben-Gal & Dan Yamin & Margaret L Brandeau, 2021. "Early detection of COVID-19 outbreaks using human mobility data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Munazza Fatima & Kara J. O’Keefe & Wenjia Wei & Sana Arshad & Oliver Gruebner, 2021. "Geospatial Analysis of COVID-19: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Fantazzini, Dean, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic using Google Trends data: Evidence from 158 countries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 33-54.
    4. Jayson S. Jia & Xin Lu & Yun Yuan & Ge Xu & Jianmin Jia & Nicholas A. Christakis, 2020. "Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7812), pages 389-394, June.
    5. Beniamino Murgante & Giuseppe Borruso & Ginevra Balletto & Paolo Castiglia & Marco Dettori, 2020. "Why Italy First? Health, Geographical and Planning Aspects of the COVID-19 Outbreak," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-44, June.
    6. Tiago Tamagusko & Adelino Ferreira, 2020. "Data-Driven Approach to Understand the Mobility Patterns of the Portuguese Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-12, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bulut Boru & M. Emre Gursoy, 2022. "Forecasting Daily COVID-19 Case Counts Using Aggregate Mobility Statistics," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-24, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qiushi Chen & Michiko Tsubaki & Yasuhiro Minami & Kazutoshi Fujibayashi & Tetsuro Yumoto & Junzo Kamei & Yuka Yamada & Hidenori Kominato & Hideki Oono & Toshio Naito, 2021. "Using Mobile Phone Data to Estimate the Relationship between Population Flow and Influenza Infection Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-32, July.
    2. Bart Roelofs & Dimitris Ballas & Hinke Haisma & Arjen Edzes, 2022. "Spatial mobility patterns and COVID‐19 incidence: A regional analysis of the second wave in the Netherlands," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S1), pages 21-40, November.
    3. Kuchler, Theresa & Russel, Dominic & Stroebel, Johannes, 2022. "JUE Insight: The geographic spread of COVID-19 correlates with the structure of social networks as measured by Facebook," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Wang, Peipei & Liu, Haiyan & Zheng, Xinqi & Ma, Ruifang, 2023. "A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Lei Che & Jiangang Xu & Hong Chen & Dongqi Sun & Bao Wang & Yunuo Zheng & Xuedi Yang & Zhongren Peng, 2022. "Evaluation of the Spatial Effect of Network Resilience in the Yangtze River Delta: An Integrated Framework for Regional Collaboration and Governance under Disruption," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Naimoli, Antonio, 2022. "Modelling the persistence of Covid-19 positivity rate in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    7. Andrew J. Curtis & Jayakrishnan Ajayakumar & Jacqueline Curtis & Sam Brown, 2022. "Spatial Syndromic Surveillance and COVID-19 in the U.S.: Local Cluster Mapping for Pandemic Preparedness," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-15, July.
    8. Liu, Li-Jing & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Qian, Xiang-Yan & Xu, Chun-Lei & Wei, Si-Yi & Creutzig, Felix & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-453.
    9. Munazza Fatima & Kara J. O’Keefe & Wenjia Wei & Sana Arshad & Oliver Gruebner, 2021. "Geospatial Analysis of COVID-19: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-14, February.
    10. Qi Yan & Siqing Shan & Menghan Sun & Feng Zhao & Yangzi Yang & Yinong Li, 2022. "A Social Media Infodemic-Based Prediction Model for the Number of Severe and Critical COVID-19 Patients in the Lockdown Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-16, July.
    11. X. Angela Yao & Andrew Crooks & Bin Jiang & Jukka Krisp & Xintao Liu & Haosheng Huang, 2023. "An overview of urban analytical approaches to combating the Covid-19 pandemic," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(5), pages 1133-1143, June.
    12. Yin Huang & Runda Liu & Shumin Huang & Gege Yang & Xiaofan Zhang & Yin Qin & Lisha Mao & Sishi Sheng & Biao Huang, 2021. "Imbalance and breakout in the post-epidemic era: Research into the spatial patterns of freight demand network in six provinces of central China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Fu, Xin & Qiang, Yongjie & Liu, Xuxu & Jiang, Ying & Cui, Zhiwei & Zhang, Deyu & Wang, Jianwei, 2022. "Will multi-industry supply chains' resilience under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic be different? A perspective from China's highway freight transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 165-178.
    14. Chen, Xi & Qiu, Yun & Shi, Wei & Yu, Pei, 2022. "Key links in network interactions: Assessing route-specific travel restrictions in China during the Covid-19 pandemic," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Xiaoyan Mu & Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Xiaohu Zhang, 2021. "The interplay of spatial spread of COVID-19 and human mobility in the urban system of China during the Chinese New Year," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(7), pages 1955-1971, September.
    16. Rastko Jovanović & Miloš Davidović & Ivan Lazović & Maja Jovanović & Milena Jovašević-Stojanović, 2021. "Modelling Voluntary General Population Vaccination Strategies during COVID-19 Outbreak: Influence of Disease Prevalence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-18, June.
    17. Sreten Simović & Tijana Ivanišević & Bojana Bradić & Svetlana Čičević & Aleksandar Trifunović, 2021. "What Causes Changes in Passenger Behavior in South-East Europe during the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-11, July.
    18. Yanxin Wang & Jian Li & Xi Zhao & Gengzhong Feng & Xin (Robert) Luo, 2020. "Using Mobile Phone Data for Emergency Management: a Systematic Literature Review," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 1539-1559, December.
    19. Kai Zhang & Zixuan Chu & Jiping Xing & Honggang Zhang & Qixiu Cheng, 2023. "Urban Traffic Flow Congestion Prediction Based on a Data-Driven Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-20, September.
    20. Tiziana Campisi & Socrates Basbas & Anastasios Skoufas & Nurten Akgün & Dario Ticali & Giovanni Tesoriere, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Resilience of Sustainable Mobility in Sicily," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-24, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jdataj:v:7:y:2022:i:8:p:107-:d:877199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.