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Analyzing the Impact of Storm ‘Daniel’ and Subsequent Flooding on Thessaly’s Soil Chemistry through Causal Inference

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  • Miltiadis Iatrou

    (Soil and Water Resources Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Miltiadis Tziouvalekas

    (Institute of Industrial and Forage Crops, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 41335 Larissa, Greece)

  • Alexandros Tsitouras

    (Institute of Industrial and Forage Crops, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 41335 Larissa, Greece)

  • Elefterios Evangelou

    (Institute of Industrial and Forage Crops, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 41335 Larissa, Greece)

  • Christos Noulas

    (Institute of Industrial and Forage Crops, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 41335 Larissa, Greece)

  • Dimitrios Vlachostergios

    (Institute of Industrial and Forage Crops, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 41335 Larissa, Greece)

  • Vassilis Aschonitis

    (Soil and Water Resources Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • George Arampatzis

    (Soil and Water Resources Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Irene Metaxa

    (Soil and Water Resources Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Christos Karydas

    (Ecodevelopment S.A., 57010 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Panagiotis Tziachris

    (Soil and Water Resources Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece)

Abstract

Storm ‘Daniel’ caused the most severe flood phenomenon that Greece has ever experienced, with thousands of hectares of farmland submerged for days. This led to sediment deposition in the inundated areas, which significantly altered the chemical properties of the soil, as revealed by extensive soil sampling and laboratory analysis. The causal relationships between the soil chemical properties and sediment deposition were extracted using the DirectLiNGAM algorithm. The results of the causality analysis showed that the sediment deposition affected the CaCO 3 concentration in the soil. Also, causal relationships were identified between CaCO 3 and the available phosphorus (P-Olsen), as well as those between the sediment deposit depth and available manganese. The quantified relationships between the soil variables were then used to generate data using a Multiple Linear Perceptron (MLP) regressor for various levels of deposit depth (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 cm). Then, linear regression equations were fitted across the different levels of deposit depth to determine the effect of the deposit depth on CaCO 3 , P, and Mn. The results revealed quadratic equations for CaCO 3 , P, and Mn as follows: 0.001XCaCO 3 2 + 0.08XCaCO 3 + 6.42, 0.004XP 2 − 0.26XP + 12.29, and 0.003XMn 2 − 0.08XMn + 22.47, respectively. The statistical analysis indicated that corn growing in soils with a sediment over 10 cm requires a 31.8% increase in the P rate to prevent yield decline. Additional notifications regarding cropping strategies in the near future are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Miltiadis Iatrou & Miltiadis Tziouvalekas & Alexandros Tsitouras & Elefterios Evangelou & Christos Noulas & Dimitrios Vlachostergios & Vassilis Aschonitis & George Arampatzis & Irene Metaxa & Christos, 2024. "Analyzing the Impact of Storm ‘Daniel’ and Subsequent Flooding on Thessaly’s Soil Chemistry through Causal Inference," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:4:p:549-:d:1367390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miltiadis Iatrou & Christos Karydas & George Iatrou & Ioannis Pitsiorlas & Vassilis Aschonitis & Iason Raptis & Stelios Mpetas & Kostas Kravvas & Spiros Mourelatos, 2021. "Topdressing Nitrogen Demand Prediction in Rice Crop Using Machine Learning Systems," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Jens H. Christensen & Ole B. Christensen, 2003. "Severe summertime flooding in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6925), pages 805-806, February.
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