IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v10y2020i1p21-d310217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasts of the Amount Purchase Pork Meat by Using Structured and Unstructured Big Data

Author

Listed:
  • Ga-Ae Ryu

    (Department of Computer Science, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea)

  • Aziz Nasridinov

    (Department of Computer Science, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea)

  • HyungChul Rah

    (Department of Management Information Systems, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea)

  • Kwan-Hee Yoo

    (Department of Computer Science, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea)

Abstract

It is believed that the huge amount of information delivered to the consumers through mass media, including television and social networks, may affect consumers’ behavior. The purpose of this study was to forecast the amount required to purchase pork belly meat by using unstructured data such as broadcast news, TV programs/shows and social network as well as structured data such as consumer panel data, retail and wholesale prices and production outputs in order to prove that mass media data release can occur ahead of actual economic activities and consumer behavior can be predicted by using these data. By using structured and unstructured data from 2010 to 2016 and five forecasting algorithms (autoregressive exogenous model and vector error correction model for time series, gradient boosting and random forest for machine learning, and long short-term memory for recurrent neural network), the amounts required to purchase pork belly meat in 2017 were forecasted and compared with the actual amounts to validate model accuracy. Our findings suggest that when unstructured data were combined with structured data, the forecast pattern is improved. To date, our study is the first report that forecasts the demand of pork meat by using structured and unstructured data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ga-Ae Ryu & Aziz Nasridinov & HyungChul Rah & Kwan-Hee Yoo, 2020. "Forecasts of the Amount Purchase Pork Meat by Using Structured and Unstructured Big Data," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:10:y:2020:i:1:p:21-:d:310217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/10/1/21/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/10/1/21/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoo, Do-il, "undated". "Vegetable Price Prediction Using Atypical Web-Search Data," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236211, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Xanat Vargas Meza & Han Woo Park, 2016. "Organic Products in Mexico and South Korea on Twitter," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 587-603, May.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. Concha Artola & Fernando Pinto & Pablo de Pedraza García, 2015. "Can internet searches forecast tourism inflows?," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1), pages 103-116, April.
    5. Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian, 2012. "Predicting the Present with Google Trends," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 2-9, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yan Guo & Xiaonan Hu & Zepeng Wang & Wei Tang & Deyu Liu & Yunzhong Luo & Hongxiang Xu, 2021. "The butterfly effect in the price of agricultural products: A multidimensional spatial-temporal association mining," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(11), pages 457-467.
    2. Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Ga-Ae Ryu & Kwan-Hee Yoo & HyungChul Rah & Aziz Nasridinov, 2020. "Incorporating Deep Learning and News Topic Modeling for Forecasting Pork Prices: The Case of South Korea," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Wuyue An & Lin Wang & Dongfeng Zhang, 2023. "Comprehensive commodity price forecasting framework using text mining methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1865-1888, November.
    4. Gniewko Niedbała & Danuta Kurasiak-Popowska & Kinga Stuper-Szablewska & Jerzy Nawracała, 2020. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Analyze the Concentration of Ferulic Acid, Deoxynivalenol, and Nivalenol in Winter Wheat Grain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Götz, Thomas B. & Knetsch, Thomas A., 2019. "Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    2. Siliverstovs, Boriss & Wochner, Daniel S., 2018. "Google Trends and reality: Do the proportions match?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 1-23.
    3. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    4. Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2015. "The internet as a data source for advancement in social sciences," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1), pages 2-12, April.
    5. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2020. "A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance," Working Paper series 20-27, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2020. "An alternative approach to predicting bank credit risk in Europe with Google data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    7. Caperna, Giulio & Colagrossi, Marco & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca, 2022. "A babel of web-searches: Googling unemployment during the pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    9. Stig Vinther Møller & Thomas Pedersen & Erik Christian Montes Schütte & Allan Timmermann, 2024. "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 415-438, January.
    10. Sarun Kamolthip, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with LSTM and Mixed Frequency Time Series Data," PIER Discussion Papers 165, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance," Working Paper 2015/12, Norges Bank.
    12. Coble, David & Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "Nowcasting Building Permits with Google Trends," MPRA Paper 76514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. A Fronzetti Colladon & B Guardabascio & R Innarella, 2021. "Using social network and semantic analysis to analyze online travel forums and forecast tourism demand," Papers 2105.07727, arXiv.org.
    14. Larson, William D. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2022. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 635-647.
    15. Rodrigo Mulero & Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux, 2023. "Forecasting unemployment with Google Trends: age, gender and digital divide," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 587-605, August.
    16. Jaroslav Pavlicek & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2015. "Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-11, May.
    17. Gang Xie & Xin Li & Yatong Qian & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand with KPCA-based web search indexes," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 721-743, June.
    18. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    19. Hopfe, David H. & Lee, Kiljae & Yu, Chunyan, 2024. "Short-term forecasting airport passenger flow during periods of volatility: Comparative investigation of time series vs. neural network models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. F. Antolini & L. Grassini, 2019. "Foreign arrivals nowcasting in Italy with Google Trends data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(5), pages 2385-2401, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:10:y:2020:i:1:p:21-:d:310217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.