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Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data

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  • Robert B. Litterman
  • Laurence M. Weiss

Abstract

The claim that bad money drives out good is one of the oldest and most cited in economics. Economists refer to this claim as Gresham?s law. Yet despite its seemingly universal acceptance, this claim does not warrant its status as a law. We find it has no convincing explanations and many overlooked exceptions. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the costs of using a medium of exchange at a nonpar price: small-denomination currency undervalued at the mint tends to disappear from circulation while large-denomination currency usually circulates at premium. Examining a variety of historical episodes when market and legal prices were different, we find our ?law? can explain history much better than Gresham?s.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Litterman & Laurence M. Weiss, . "Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:89
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    Cited by:

    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Recent developments in monetary policy analysis: the roles of theory and evidence," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 67-96.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    3. Alberto Giovannini, 1987. "Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 2296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Al-Sharkas, A.A. & Lozi, B.M., 2009. "Effects of Measurement on Inferences: An Application to Money Demand and Related Variables in the United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    5. Peterson, Willis L., 1997. "Does Money Still Matter?," Staff Papers 14122, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    6. Finn E. Kydland & Scott Freeman, 2000. "Monetary Aggregates and Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1125-1135, December.
    7. Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1993. "Another look at the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 189-203.
    8. Mr. Daniel S Kanda, 2008. "Spillovers to Ireland," IMF Working Papers 2008/002, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Leeper, Eric M. & Gordon, David B., 1992. "In search of the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 341-369, June.
    10. William T. Gavin, 1996. "The FOMC in 1995: a step closer to inflation targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 29-47.
    11. Robert E. McAuliffe, 1985. "The Rational Expectations Hypothesis and Economic Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 331-341, Oct-Dec.
    12. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1992. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Dawid J. van Lill, 2017. "Changes in the Liquidity Effect Over Time: Evidence from Four Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 704, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. Mark Wheeler, 1991. "Causality in the United Kingdom: Results from an Open Economy," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 439-449, Oct-Dec.
    15. Biswajit Maitra, 2011. "Anticipated Money, Unanticipated Money and Output Variations in Singapore," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 118-133.
    16. Moss, Charles B. & Shonkwiler, John Scott & Reynolds, John E., 1989. "Government Payments To Farmers And Real Agricultural Asset Values In The 1980s," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-15, December.
    17. J. Barkley Rosser & Richard G. Sheehan, 1985. "A vector autoregressive model of Saudi Arabian inflation," Working Papers 1985-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Martin Eichenbaum & Kenneth I. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar US Business Cycles?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 91-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Spurious Effect of Unit Roots on Exogeneity Tests in Vector Autoregressions: An Analytical Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 978, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Aubone, Aníbal, 1988. "Notas sobre vectores autoregressivos (V. A. R.)," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 8(1), June.
    21. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables, and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 56, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jan 1998.
    22. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1989. "Money, Income and Prices After the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 2852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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