IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedlrv/y2003isepp23-38nv.85no.5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?

Author

Abstract

The 2001 recession was unique in several respects. For instance, the peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product was one of the smallest on record and its duration was slightly shorter than average. This article examines some of the other unique features of the 2001 recession compared with the ?average? post-World War II recession. The author also shows that forecasters were surprised by the onset of the recession, perhaps because of incomplete data available to them in real time. Finally, the article examines the errors from a well-known macroeconomic forecast and finds that forecasters were surprised by the declines in real business and household fixed investment, as well as real net exports, before the March 2001 business cycle peak.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin L. Kliesen, 2003. "The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Sep), pages 23-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2003:i:sep:p:23-38:n:v.85no.5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/03/09/Kliesen.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles? an overview," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-24.
    2. Boldin, Michael D, 1994. "Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 97-131, January.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Mar), pages 47-61.
    4. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue jun.
    5. Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1995. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries? Results for the G-7 countries," Working Papers 9509, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2002. "Speculative Growth," NBER Working Papers 9381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Bob & Boo, Yee Ling & Ee, Mong Shan & Chen, Cindy, 2013. "A re-examination of firm's attributes and share returns: Evidence from the Chinese A-shares market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 174-181.
    2. Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.
    3. Wang, Lu & Wu, Jianhong, 2022. "Estimation of high-dimensional factor models with multiple structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Dan, Sujan M. & Spaid, Brian I. & Noble, Charles H., 2018. "Exploring the sources of design innovations: Insights from the computer, communications and audio equipment industries," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(8), pages 1495-1504.
    5. Pearce II, John A. & Michael, Steven C., 2006. "Strategies to prevent economic recessions from causing business failure," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 201-209.
    6. Xing, Kai & Luo, Dan & Liu, Lanlan, 2023. "Macroeconomic conditions, corporate default, and default clustering," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    7. Pablo Mejía-Reyes & Reyna Vergara-González, 2015. "Are more severe recessions followed by stronger recoveries? Evidence from the Mexican states employment," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1223, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Bharman Gulati & Stephan Weiler, 2021. "Risk, Recessions, and Resilience: Towards Sustainable Local Labor Markets through Employment Portfolio Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-20, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-16.
    3. Mody, Ashoka & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 2007. "A cross-country financial accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 149-165, February.
    4. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Curtis Simon, 2014. "Sectoral Change And Unemployment During The Great Recession, In Historical Perspective," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 828-855, November.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Rolando Peláez, 2005. "Dating Business-Cycle turning points," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 127-137, March.
    8. Giuseppe Fontana & Alfonso Palacio‐Vera, 2007. "Are Long‐Run Price Stability And Short‐Run Output Stabilization All That Monetary Policy Can Aim For?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 269-298, May.
    9. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Teng, Kee Tuan, 2013. "Integration of world leaders and emerging powers into the Malaysian stock market: A DCC-MGARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 333-342.
    10. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
    11. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    12. Chao Chiung Ting, 2018. "Phillips Curve Is a Particular Case that Economists Misinterpret the Correlation between Two Dependent Variables for Causal Relation," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 1-70, November.
    13. Höppner, Florian & Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of Anticipated Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1074, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
    15. repec:bla:etrans:v:11:y:2003-06:i:2:p:357-381 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. John Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1999. "Gross job flows between plants and industries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-64.
    18. Gerlach, Stefan & Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2002. "Estimates of Real Economic Activity in Switzerland, 1885-1930," CEPR Discussion Papers 3427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Wavelet variance and correlation analyses of output in G7 countries," Macroeconomics 0512017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    21. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2003:i:sep:p:23-38:n:v.85no.5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.