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A Cross-Country Financial Accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Taylor, Mark
  • Sarno, Lucio
  • Mody, Ashoka

Abstract

A growing literature has examined the importance of credit market imperfections for macroeconomic fluctuations, the so-called financial accelerator. A related literature has provided evidence of international and regional co-movements in macroeconomic fluctuations. We tie together these strands of the literature in that we investigate the importance of both cross-country and country-specific credit cycles in explaining output fluctuations. Using data for four major economies and two world regions from 1973 to 2001, we find that both regional and country-specific components of indicators of credit availability are powerful in explaining output movements. This research provides the first empirical evidence of a cross-country financial accelerator.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mark & Sarno, Lucio & Mody, Ashoka, 2005. "A Cross-Country Financial Accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 5037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5037
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    1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles? an overview," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-24.
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    4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
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    6. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    7. Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Measuring World Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
    8. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
    9. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    10. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    11. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    12. Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics, Spillovers and Growth in the G7 Economies: An Empirical Investigation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 401-426, August.
    13. Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-3.
    14. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
    15. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    16. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    17. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Co-Fluctuations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    18. repec:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:271:p:401-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    20. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue jun.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mazhar Mahmood & Kashif ur Rehman, 2017. "Did Financial Integration Provide Financial Depth to ASEAN Countries?," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(1), pages 89-102, March.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2016. "Business cycles, international trade and capital flows: evidence from Latin America," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 231-252, March.
    4. repec:nsb:wpaper:21 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Scopelliti, Alessandro Diego, 2013. "Off-balance sheet credit exposure and asset securitisation: what impact on bank credit supply?," MPRA Paper 43890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    7. Davis, J. Scott, 2014. "Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 99-111.
    8. Claus, Iris, 2011. "Inside the black box: How important is the credit channel relative to the interest and exchange rate channels?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 1-12, January.
    9. Iulia Lupu, 2012. "From the Financial Crisis to the Real Economy: the Main Channels of Transmission through a Theoretical Perspective," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 45-50, May.
    10. Bruno Coric, 2011. "The financial accelerator effect: concept and challenges," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 171-196.
    11. Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Körmendi, Gyöngyi & Mérő, Bence, 2016. "Egy- és többváltozós szűrők a hitelrés alakulásának meghatározására [Filters with single or multiple variables in measuring the size of the credit gap]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 233-259.
    12. J. Scott Davis, 2011. "Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement: the role of balance sheets," Globalization Institute Working Papers 89, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial accelerator; Credit cycle; International business cycles; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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